Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Brexit and Trump voters didn't really consider the long term, I've no doubt many new SF voters are exactly the same. Perhaps a lot of younger people think that if SF do come in and make things even worse, well at least they can emigrate somewhere and leave the burning mess (they voted for) behind them?

I really feel that prices are at an absolute peak right now, and that the market cannot bear any more rises. We traded up earlier this year in Dublin 18 and I just can't see property prices going higher, I believe that within 12-24 months prices will be down 10%+. No massive crash but a reversion to the pre-COVID levels perhaps. Lots of savings gone out of the market with the last two years of buying, and there just aren't massive salary increases, at least where I'm standing (I work for a small multi-national and arguments of 'inflation is 10%, I need a 10% salary increase just to stand still!' isn't getting much traction).

When I applied, you needed a certain amount of income for each adult and child dependent. Is this criteria still in place and would it increase with inflation. Add in the rising interest rate effect.

The central bank negative interest rate environment and our very high mortgage rates attracted some semblance of international competition. Could this reverse if their is trouble in those banks domestic markets.

There will be no drops for years. 300+ new PPS numbers on track for 2022, where do we house all of these people? The new buying incentives will also push up prices as was the case when a similar scheme was introduced in the UK, cant see prices dropping if anything they may continue to increase.

The bubble is global, a small open economy should be OK then

The issue is that people 2/3's of the way up the ladder are also struggling to buy, it's not just the bottom. And you could hardly label it altruistic but there's a pretty sizeable percentage of people there who are in a position to absorb cost of living increases while also taking advantage of reduced property costs. Hence the desire for prices to fall.

In terms of voting - you have this huge cohort of people 20s-40s who are royally pissed off. Who will likely turn out in record numbers to vote. And, whether through naivety, anger or anything else you can label it, they will vote SF because, to their mind, why on earth would they vote for the current incumbents?

I sit in this cohort and will not personally vote for SF, as I do not believe they will improve things, but I can't blame others for voting them in.

With the Gas situation in Europe even if a bag recession occurs gas prices will not retreat anywhere back to where they were early 2021 when fertilizer prices were 200 euro a ton. As regards food price it lags by at least 10 months which is the growing period realistically before harvesting of the crop where the input prices are then passed on. so if gas fell from 300 euro per cubic meter back down to 5 euro a cubic meter then it would still take a year before food price would see it.

Maybe not but you can be guaranteed there is now a real concerted level of concentration going into other sources of energy I see this in teh sector I work in hopefully making our reliance on gas a thing of the pass it will take time do