Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

The friend said that the guy was Irish not Chinese. Mid to higher end properties in Dublin, 650k plus.

Who knows, probably bull. The only reason I'd give any credence to it is because Chinese folk don't invest in stocks but in property. And their domestic property industry is looking at very bleak times ahead. It's hardly unheard of for pension/investment funds to buy up single family homes. It has been happening all over the shop in the US for the past few years due to the halt in construction during COVID etc.

What makes you so sure bankruptcy is a certainty “down the road”? And how will years of IMF control of spending, austerity and higher taxes help people buy a home?

Since you want to know about what happens to shop assistants in a recession I tell you.

The builders providers, the hardware shops , paint shops start to lay them off. Those that remain are put on 40 hour weeks with no overtime. Some are put on three days weeks and claim the dole.

However a lot of those that work as shop assistants are in the retail sector. Most are college students. At present all of these earn at least the minimum wage and many are getting 1-2 euro more per hour. In the service sector they will earn another1-2 euro/ hour from tips

What happens in a recession is this. Most of these college students are on zero hour contracts as demand reduces the employers cut these students hours. As well any new employee are bought in at the statutory minimum wage for there age which is lower for 17-19 year old. When these get trained they are given more hours than 20+year old staff as there pay is less.

In the last recession there was a training rate that was abused. When you started with a employer they could put you on a training rate for six months. They then gave you very little hours after the six month or let you go before you had any employment rights and you went on to be trained again and again by different retailers.

Then you will have the shorter shifts. Because of virtually no unemployment, the retailers are giving staff a minimum of 5-6 hour shifts. My daughter had a part time job in coming up to Christmas 2014, the hourly rate was about 6/,hour ( the famous training rate) but was only getting 4-5 hour shifts. one day she got an eight hour shift but after 4 hours the manager wanted her to go home early as they had too many staff in

Next in the service sector the tips dry up. The number of hours continually drop from where you as a student had 30+/week to where you may be lucky to have 20 or even less at quite times during the year.

Some stores had a trick the last time, managers would have an idea of what day you were in college, they used to schedule you hours during these day so you would have to give up the job so they could hire cheaper staff.

This doubly effects the economy. Students usually spend virtually every bob they earn. Now as they earn less they have less to spend. This reduces demand in the same areas that employ them. Now there parents may have to subsidize there accommodation, trave and food more. This give them less spending power.

And how would austerity help the Government/private sector to build new homes? How would people afford them if they are taxed more/lose their jobs?

Seriously, this is cringy stuff.

Because a lot of work in retail is carried out on zero hour contracts. Many are student. 20-20% who move on every year as they leave college and move to there new career.

I am not did anyone mention 50% losing there jobs. I never gave a jobless figure of that anyway. However if you think retail workers are not seriously effected in a recession you haven't a f@@king clue about recessions and even less if a clue about economics. I go so far as to say the average two year old would have a better grasp that you do.

For my daughter it was part of her education. She got a job after her first year in college in a betting office which was a great job. She earned from 10 to nearly 14 k in her final college year

How does it require 50% to loose their job!!!!

that is something you came up with. The point I was making was that other people are impacted and not just the 300k (another figure you came up with) that would leave Ireland. We didn’t even touch on how much tax this 300k currently contribute and how that short fall would be made up. Your logic shows that you have never been properly impacted by a recession and hopefully for your sake you never will but if it does happen you look back at this and think very differently to your current view.

When the imf were here, there was an adult running the show, unfortunately it was handed back to the clowns. For accountability of government it was probably the best of times in our short history

Mortgage misery as ECB now set for two more hikes by the end of the year

Market experts said rates likely to go up by 1 percentage point, or even 1.25 percentage points

looks like house prices will eventually have to drop if these rate rises continue....

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/mortgage-misery-as-ecb-now-set-for-two-more-hikes-by-the-end-of-the-year-41933438.html