FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3 - Threadbanned User List in OP

I don't think that there are any TDs from FF and FG who would bring the government down on the budget because the numbers are tighter. A Green backbencher might, but their issues are more away from the Budget. It would have been much easier to vote against the Budget last year when the government had a bigger majority.

If the government needs independents, that might be different, but a lot of the independents know that SF are targetting their seats in particular.

Sure, but most gene pool independents have enough of a personal vote to become one. Quit or get kicked out of the party and you are usually sunk, especially as you will be up against party candidates who want you out and the vote is often a party vote.

The "party vote" as a deciding factor is a fallacy. The core party support is much smaller than it appears. A few years ago, the opinion polls used to publish core figures for the parties by including the "Don't Knows" as a separate category. The problem is that over recent decades, the DKs have grown considerably and it is their vote (typically that of floating voters) that decides the outcome of elections. An angry electorate can destroy a party. This is exactly what happened to Labour in 2016 but Labour had been almost completely dependent on transfers and floating votes. When those transfers and floating votes disappeared, so did Labour's TDs. When the DK percentage starts increasing, it is generally an indication that electoral upsets are on the way.

Regards...jmcc

But in this scenario, a backlash against a political party makes a move to being a genepool independent more attractive. The other aspect that has not been mentioned is the effect of candidate selection on the parties if the government falls in September. Existing TDs would have an advantage over parties that had not yet selected candidates and a new party candidate may not have had enough time to develop a profile in the constituency. This is why the decision to become a genepool independent often favours the existing TD who is concerned about saving their seat. It is completely cynical but these are politicians.

Regards...jmcc

I expect the coalition of chaos to go full term and then get obliterated.

And I expect plenty of shenanigans along the way.

Currently the government is like a man holding on to a rising balloon and trying to decide when to let go of the rope.

Regards...jmcc

FFG will be hoping for a post-Budget boost in the opinion polls. There will be a few coming up to the Budget and the impact of Troy Story could affect FF hardest. Strategically, candidate selection is going to be a major issue. The parties will need candidates in place and known in their constituencies. If FFG have to call and early GE then there might be a slight benefit in that SF may not have candidates in place. In the last GE, FG ran too many and SF ran too few. The problem for FFG and its majority is that it may still have to buy some support from the Independents. The cost of energy is going to cause problems and this is going to be a major factor. The EU is already trying to deal with the problem and some of the EU countries are more proactive in this respect. Martin apparently had a two hour meeting on the subject. The IT and Indo were running a story about a €10K electricity bill and this may become more common unless something is done to deal with the rising costs. People are not protesting on the streets yet but September is always a tense month for family finances.

Regards...jmcc

The EU may have more of an input on stabilising energy prices. Ireland used to have a reasonable electricity pricing system until FF/PDs decided to go with their "competition" insanity. The price increases are already making headlines and this is a far more dangerous trend for the government than the Water Tax thing. This isn't an introduction of a tax but rather increases on essential bills that people have to pay. It affects people across the political spectrum. It has to be dealt with in the Budget.

Opinion polls are snapshots of public opinion at specific points in time. They are useful and both FF and FG may be facing leadership challenges if they are extremely bad. It is the last two weeks of any GE campaign, rather than two months, where the voting intentions become more obvious. Some of the newspapers don't commission polls during August but they tend to resume in September. The first of them might be published on Sunday or the Sunday after depending on the newspaper.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Irish_general_election

The Troy Story problem is going to affect support but September always results in increased spending for families (back to school). This September is different due to the increased energy costs and the Budget from a government that has a knife-edge majority.

Regards...jmcc

Dara Calleary of Golfgate fame is back! He is taking the ministry of the disgraced Troy.

Dara was one of 4 Ministers for Agriculture that FF have provided in this government since June 2020. Did any of them achieve anything?

If that is true, the Greens are continuing to have an impact on government, good to see.

Agreed. Could they not have found a TD with a clean record? The Golfgate trial was a whitewash and I find it fascinating that photos of the party never got out. The partying during Covid story will be revisited during the next election campaign for sure.

It is just another example of Martin's weakness as a leader. FF needed a break from the past. Instead, Martin chose to continually remind people of it. If there are polls due for Sunday, it will be interesting to see if Troy Story and Calleary have any impact.

Sunday Times/B&A is generally FF friendly due to face to face polling. If FF is down in that poll then it will worry the FF backbenchers. Business Post/RedC uses online polling from a panel and is not FF friendly. Sindo/Ireland thinks is the same. The Irish Times/Ipsos uses face to face.

Not sure when the FF think-in is taking place but if any of these polls show FF sliding, then things will be difficult for Martin and his loyalists if FF backbenchers consider their seats to be at risk.

Regards...jmcc

I am looking forward to the next few polls and the return of the Dail.

Yep and also the possibility of public sector strikes.

Now is the Winter of their discontent? FFG is probably wondering if it can blame it all on Putin and the war in Ukraine. There's still the student accommodation issue which has taken a bit of a backseat to Troy Story.

Regards...jmcc