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Softening house market?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Is it such a big jump most products and services produced in this country will be reliant on energy. Look no one knows for sure but I can see lots of coffee shops, hair dressers, clothing, hardware, pubs, restaurants and other industries/companies that have lower paid wages hitting the wall. Its not just high energy prices, people will not work in these jobs with such low wages and with the increase in costs to living add in the owners of such companies are not going to stay open if they are not turning a profit.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,572 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Coffee shops are a real optional spend. It's one thing being in town a good part of the day and deciding to get sandwich and a cuppa. However the coffee cult is very new and yes I believe it will be hit and hit hard. The reason being it has become a costly luxury. The spend could be 10+ euro 3-4 times a week. Add in Coffee takeaway coffees and you are at 50 euro in discretionary spending.

    But it's not critical to the economy. It's mostly staffed by part-time and student workers. While it will directly effect those involved it not as critical as the 2008-12 bust where it was a banking and construction based bust. It was Mamma and Papa losing there complete income not Johnny going to college spending money. It might relieve some pay and employment pressure's elsewhere in more important parts of the economy.

    It may also transfer into sectors in the pub and restaurants trade but price and employment pressure is hitting them anyway

    Last time before the banking and construction bust we has scarified MNC's ( Dell and a few more) to continue building houses for each ither

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,326 ✭✭✭Deub


    I am confused by your recent posts. Only a week, you said you couldn’t see a price decrease in the properly market for the next 5 years but you think there will be so many businesses closing that it will drive some MNCs to leave Ireland.

    How do you expect MNCs leaving Ireland and not impacting the property market?



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,109 ✭✭✭SuperBowserWorld


    The government will knock down houses to reduce supply and keep prices high.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Yeah I still maintain that the government keep propping this up prices with different schemes and our demand for property far outstrips supply and it will take time for the above to impact, as things keep going I would re adjust this to about 2/3 years I think the oncoming recession will impact property prices a lot sooner than I first thought.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,180 ✭✭✭OEP


    Have you connected everything you've said in separate posts together? Some of it is quite contradictory



  • Registered Users Posts: 192 ✭✭IWW2900


    My take on this.....I have been following the accommodation forum and decided to give my take now that I have my business done.

    I sold my two investment properties after finally getting rid of renters. I still have my personal property and small place in Portugal but would honestly consider selling up if I had the time. I have been around the block when it comes to property and done quite well, although I did get burned a bit in last crash.

    I see the writing on the wall. Its difficult to say how much property will drop but I think its pretty clear property aint going to rise much more from these levels, so I decided I'm best off selling up. People keep citing supply, supply, supply. They dont understand what drives markets. Interest rates and government policy drive a lot of price action and we are seeing a turning in the tides. The addition of impending recession and rising cost of goods\services are the writing on the wall.

    I expect things to tip along for a few months pretty stagnant before a drop. I believe we are in that moment where gravity has stopped the upward momentum and there is a slight pause before gravity begins to take us down. But really, no ones no whats going to happen....this is just my best guess from previous experience. I am seeing a lot of similarities to last crash...many people once again think property prices cant go down, this time for different reasons.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,119 ✭✭✭Ben D Bus


    When there is a genuine shortage of housing people will spend what they can in order to get a property.

    What people can spend is now changing in the downward direction.

    High demand and falling prices are not mutually exclusive.



  • Administrators Posts: 53,836 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    This is true and a great point, certainly on the macro level, but only really applies if the reduced spending power is universal.

    e.g. if there are currently 100 people trying to buy 50 houses at 500k, and everyone has their mortgage offer cut so now only 60/100 can still afford it, then there will be likely no impact on prices.

    The spanner in the works here is that even with rising rates, a mortgage is still likely to be cheaper than renting.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,199 ✭✭✭DataDude


    I’ve found a huge cohort of people, particularly younger people, just check the max they can borrow (be it 3.5x or 4.5x income) and then go shopping with that amount.

    Given a fair chunk of the population just got 7.5% pay increases over the next 18 months (and you’d imagine private sector won’t be far behind), do feel that’ll provide some inflationary pressure.

    Ultimately that’s what drove us to buy: I felt fairly certain prices will fall relative to incomes. But struggle to see major nominal falls with inflation running this hot.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,796 ✭✭✭lintdrummer


    Looking for opinions here.

    In the market to buy a house in the southeast. We sold a property in the greater Dublin area last year and have been renting since. Property market where we are in Kilkenny is pretty limited in supply.

    We have made an offer on a property just outside the town. I really like the house. About 30 years old but well appointed and up to date. Asking was 645 and an offer of 645 came in about 2 weeks after first viewing. A week later we viewed again and were put under pressure to make an offer by the agent. We put 650 on. Were later told that the owners wanted closer to 675 but that the other party had pulled out and we were sole bidder. So obviously we didn't bid against ourselves. They have now accepted our offer.

    Problem is my wife is having second thoughts. She is worried that we are paying over the odds. I'm not so sure that we are, the house is lovely but needs some modernisation in the kitchen and bathrooms. It's quite big at 230sqm with a gorgeous garden. It's 3km from the city centre. All in all, in a situation where supply is limited a decent house like this does command a price.

    Just wondering if anybody here has thoughts on the situation? Is it mad to pay upwards of 3/4 of a million for a nice, but fairly standard house outside a rural town? Need to make our minds up on this so just looking for input from unbiased folk here. I'm also conscious that the recent announcement of Abbott creating 800 new jobs in Kilkenny is probably going to impact the market here for some time as employees look for property in the area.



  • Registered Users Posts: 235 ✭✭thedart


    You will drop another €100k as 30 year old house will need rewire and plumb. Plus kitchen upgrade.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Not contradictory I said 5 years for house prices I am now saying that time frame will be shorter maybe 2/3 years



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,646 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    What have similar properties gone for in the past 24 months. Its interesting that the other buyers dropped out, what gave them cold feet?

    Maybe go back with a reduced offer. Do you need to buy right now, or can you wait 6-12 months?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,994 ✭✭✭KilOit


    Don't remember inflation this high in the last crash. high inflation and salary increases could keep house prices high



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,572 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Wage increase for PS of 6.5%. half it backdated to last February and all to be paid by end of next year. If that is copied across the private sector a couple on 100k between them can draw down another 22750 euro at 3.5 times salary and nearly 30k @4.5 times salary.

    That couple can draw down nearly 500 k and with a bit more than a 10% deposit can buy a 550k house.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,572 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    House is just slightly above 2500sq feet. To builders finish it would cost 450k at least at present building costs. That is 200k for site, planning, landscaping and present interiors of the house.

    What are you paying in rent. What is your fixed rate mortgage going to be over 5 years and 10 years.

    You have being renting for 12 months maybe more, will you be renting another 12 months waiting for similar property. Is twelve months rent costing 15k. On a mortgage a 1%extra interest rate over five years on 500k will cost 25k( assuming you buy next year and five year fixed have in teased by 1%).

    It could take a 10% drop before you see anything in savings.

    It should not need a rewire or a replumb. Insulation and Ber rating I would be more worried about.

    Problem with going back with a reduced offer is that vendors may not only not accept it but lose trust in you as a buyer. It may work however another buyer may emerge.

    There is risk as well as reward

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,394 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    We also have too many bars with a declining trade. While you think change means doom to everything it is just change. You will still be able to get a coffee or a pint. It is basic economics of supply and demand. Did your mourn the loss of mobile phone shops as they contract? What about declining attendance at churches?

    Public appetite changes randomly and some times has causes. Less footfall in the city centre means less demand for coffee which was making super normal profits for years. The fact is a new chain is entering the market here anyway putting more pressure on small independents as is.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,631 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    Do we actually have less coffee shops, or have the locations just moved? I think there are less in the city center but far far more in suburbs now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,394 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    I agree with you and said similar earlier. There are 3 new coffee shops near my house and they seem busy



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,394 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    My advice to anybody unsure of buying a property is make sure the house can retain value. That means in the worse case scenario you could rent it easily. Close to college or hospital makes the most sense. What you seem to buying is a great family home but not something many renters would look for and/or afford. Seems like a lot of money but certainly not a fairly standard house at that size. I wouldn't do it it unless I had plenty of security financially and employment wise



  • Registered Users Posts: 235 ✭✭thedart


    A 30 year old house could have its services in a poor way. We had to totally rewire and re plumb a 25 year old house recently. Was plumbed in acorn joints were weeping in several locations, boiler was on last legs and hw cylinder was on way out also. The wiring had no earths at lights or switches, had two ring socket circuits that were not passing.

    Dont presume nothing, I’ve wore the shirt.



  • Registered Users Posts: 54 ✭✭Jayno66


    I've heard mention of more people being refused for mortgages. Can anyone explain why this is the case to me?

    I can understand why fewer people might be applying for mortgages for various reasons, which would lead to an overall reduction in the amount of mortgages approved. But unsure why more people are being declined - surely the banks assessment criteria are the same now as they were a year ago? I.e. 3.5 times income, credit history, savings, etc.

    Is it due to the ECB interest rate rise, or recuction in exemptions given out perhaps?



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    The banks are becoming nervous about the property market. The cost of living is rising faster than earnings in many cases so affordability is automatically lower, particularly with the mortgage rate rising. Many self employed people will have a substantial drop in earnings due to much higher overheads for energy. Some businesses will fail or suffer reduced turnover as discretionary spending reduces. The banks have a birds eye view as to who is mnaking money or not and who is stretched or not. They see the droppiong turnover in real time, they see the missed payments, bounced cheques and runs on savings.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,620 ✭✭✭quokula


    Anecdotally it feels like prices and demand have risen a lot where I'm looking vs 3 or 4 months ago. We've lost a couple of bidding wars that have gone 100k over asking, and the average asking price of our daft filter feels like it has gone up by around 100k over the last few months ago too. The sticker price for new phases in new estates we'd had our eye on also seem to still be going up. We originally thought we were in the 800k range for the size and location we wanted, now looking more like 900k+ and still rising.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,483 ✭✭✭tigger123


    4 new coffee shops opened within walking distance of my house since covid started. And the one that was already established has recently gotten an alcohol licence and has started doing light evening meals.

    Business and footfall is being shared now with the suburbs.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,572 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    My house is 30+ years old. There are is no problems with the plumbing or the wiring knock on wood. Ya if you decide you dislike the he kitchen or a bathroom that is another issue, if the house is thirty years old the plumbing is more than likely still copper and standard radiators.

    As well the house is in the higher tier house section. A lot of these were one off builds and the quality was often monitored by those that bought the original houses..

    I imagine the house is something like this

    if it is I be thinking long and hard before I walked away from it especially if it was not stretching me financially.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,459 ✭✭✭Tow


    He (or the wife) also needs to remember that the cash sitting in the bank from selling the Dublin house has lost 10% of its value in the last year.

    When is the money (including lost growth) Michael Noonan took in the Pension Levy going to be paid back?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,796 ✭✭✭lintdrummer


    That is indeed the house in question. It is not stretching us financially, we both have good stable jobs. I am delighted to have had the offer accepted, my wife is just on the fence but I think with some further discussion she will see sense.

    While that is true, we put the bulk of the cash into prize bonds and it has earned us almost €1000 in interest since December so we are not doing as bad as we would have by putting it in a savings account.

    Thank you, good post here to put things in perspective. Rent is currently €1300 per month. Mortgage will be fixed at 2.55% for 5 years. We don't have a choice on the provider because my salary is in Sterling.

    I hadn't considered the maths of waiting it out with potential rate increases. Worth considering.

    That is true, these are the risks you take with a second hand property. However this one is well maintained and looks to have been built to a high standard. The boiler was replaced about 5 years ago.

    There's another property my wife prefers due to it's location, it's smaller though.

    My problem with this house is that the bedrooms are very small and the layout downstairs is poor. I would be inclined to add an extension to the house, possibly incorporating the garage. Planning should not be an issue as there are examples in the same cul-de-sac of the same thing having been done. But then you are into major expense and renting for another year waiting for the work to be done so I'm not keen on the idea.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,572 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Landscaping around the house would cost 70+k at present it looks like it was professionally landscaped. It's has fairly mature gardens. Decor is quite good if a bit dated.

    Good ber rating at C1 but I am surprised it achieved that with four fireplaces. Everything in the house looks to be top quality if a bit dated. Things like electric gates that would cost a couple is thousand to get done. I would doubt if you would need a complete rewire or replumb of that house.

    It's a completely different piece of property compared to No8 Broguemakers and there is only 50k in the difference and you have not bid on that one.

    Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

    I know very little about Kilkenny but if it in a nice area it should increase in value o er the next ten years.

    Will it cost 100-150k to put an extension on the other house.

    If you do not like the oak kitchen get it professionally painted 2ish grand. Install a stove or two, consider woodpellet stoves for ease of use.

    Get robotic lawnmowers to do the lawns 3-5k instead of a ride on lawnmower

    Slava Ukrainii



This discussion has been closed.
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