A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

Jonnyc135 · 31-08-2022 3:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548270#Comment_119548270

I have noticed this too on my Emails from them, not a good sign

Darth Putin · 31-08-2022 3:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548394#Comment_119548394

Oh the horror of it

we might become energy independent like US and actually export energy

we are going to burning gas well into 2050s according to even the most optimistic green transition plans, may as well burn our own instead of importing and wasting billions

BASHIR · 31-08-2022 3:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548431#Comment_119548431

Would you be living remotely close to it?

Marty Bird · 31-08-2022 3:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548431#Comment_119548431

And poison local communities while we’re at it

Wolf359f · 31-08-2022 3:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548553#Comment_119548553

I guess it's easier in a country like the US which has a little more land mass with more remote areas they could use for fracking. Not to mention more lax environmental laws.

But it's still an option, would be in a worse position of we didn't have shale gas as a nuclear option (bad pun)

Darth Putin · 31-08-2022 3:58pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548553#Comment_119548553

The communities with oil and gas are some of the most prosperous in US with highest paid blue collar jobs (even higher than tech)

Lower energy prices would also mean coffee shops like one on previous page using 50kwh a day won’t have to go out of business

And that’s before we get to not sending billions each month and keeping it in country

As for poisoning bit, that’s a load of bullshit I suspected funded by likes of Gazprom who spent decades getting Europe hooked on their gas and they actually are poisoning same planet we live on, making an absolute mockery of all of the carbon taxes we in Ireland pay while billions of tones of methane is release at worst or flared at best

As I said even under the most optimistic scenario to renewables transition in Ireland from our government we will be burning gas for decades to come, may as well keep it local

road_high · 31-08-2022 4:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548112#Comment_119548112

Absolutely. It’s idiotic. Come winter I can see a thaw coming and deals will be done on Russian energy. As it’s essential, not an optional extra

charlie14 · 31-08-2022 4:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548553#Comment_119548553

We are going to need gas for a long time to come as renewables are intermittent and unreliable, and that gas is going to have to come from somewhere. As we are Corrib is near depletion so we are going to end up depending for all our gas from a source that even our own energy regulator has said is insecure and is in violation of E.U. regulations.

We are in that position because of alternative conventional energy plants being either shut down or downgraded with the belief that renewables would fill the gap which they have failed to do. To add to the problem we have no gas storage, greens have banned exploration, are hand sitting on permits and are attempting to ban LNG. We are exactly where Germany, the template for the Irish Green Party, was before this war in Ukraine, but at least Germany are attempting to do something about it, whereas the only answer from Ryan is more gas plants and throwing more money and resources at wind energy, without anybody having even a vague idea of the cost, or how long it will take.

This whole renewables plan was based on nothing but hope, and reality has a nasty way of sorting out hope as we are now seeing.

Wolf359f · 31-08-2022 4:44pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548697#Comment_119548697

Having an abundance of gas reserves won't lower energy prices. They are set by the market. Norway uses renewable (mainly hydro) for nearly 99% of their electricity generation yet their prices are rising.

Why would a Norwegian energy supplier charge a lower rate when they can sell at a higher rate to a neighbouring country? Because the market dictates the price.

If you want to reduce the price (short of their being an oversupply of cheap gas or energy) you would need to nationalise the energy companies.

You could invite a company to tap into shale gas in Sligo, but they would just sell it on the market at the skyhigh rate. There's more to the high electricity prices than the high price of gas.

BASHIR · 31-08-2022 4:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548697#Comment_119548697

It'll not happen, can almost guarantee it.

Darth Putin · 31-08-2022 4:53pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548932#Comment_119548932

That’s the same Norway worth worlds largest sovereign wealth fund funded by their oil and gas right?

250000$ per each Norwegian citizen in 2021 (more now) that this year is growing by leaps and bounds??

oh no 🙈 🙊 🙉 that sounds terrible just terrible /s

BASHIR · 31-08-2022 4:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548978#Comment_119548978

All offshore.

Darth Putin · 31-08-2022 4:56pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548986#Comment_119548986

All belonging to Norwegian government and its people

1.4% of ALL world listed companies

terrible just terrible

BASHIR · 31-08-2022 4:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119549000#Comment_119549000

Yes. all offshore

timmyntc · 31-08-2022 4:58pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548932#Comment_119548932

We currently dont have the facilities to export any gas though I believe - only import through Moffat.

Norway can export all across Europe which is why gas companies can sell to others also which pushed domestic up. Were we to access another gas field here it would only be for consumption in the Irish market

Wolf359f · 31-08-2022 4:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548978#Comment_119548978

You've completely missed the point.

Being energy independent will not mean cheap electricity if you're selling it on the open market and the market is paying skyhigh prices. But keep spouting on about shale gas in Sligo like it will make a difference to energy bills in Ireland. It won't, unless the energy companies (from the wells to the boilers) are nationalised or some other drastic measures are taken.

Darth Putin · 31-08-2022 5:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119549020#Comment_119549020

You completely missed my points made earlier

Using Irish gas from Ireland

saves us billions per year for 20-30 years
Gives us 20-30 years to solve the wind intermittency problem and the co2 emissions problem with enough storage and/or build nuclear
decouples us from world markets, just look at USA who are laughing all way to bank at those eejits over in Europe who didn’t listen to them

Wolf359f · 31-08-2022 5:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119549013#Comment_119549013

You can burn gas and export electricity to Europe and the UK. So if we have a flow of cheap gas and company A can sell it on the Irish market for €100 but company B will burn it and export electricity and can get €500 for said electricity, do you not think company B would be pushing up the price of Irish gas?

I'm sure it's not as simple as that, but just having an abundance of gas/energy makes little difference when you're in the single market for energy.

Darth Putin · 31-08-2022 5:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119549056#Comment_119549056

Have you looked at size of electricity and gas interconnection to uk (and from there to Europe)? Electricity and gas doesn’t just magically teleport

Its not that simple, uk has cheaper gas now (ironically thanks to US fracked LNG) but can’t sell anymore than the electric and gas interconnectors allow

charlie14 · 31-08-2022 5:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548932#Comment_119548932

If it was just about the price of gas I could see your point, but it`s not as simple as that.

For our economy it is about energy security. Something both our own CRU and the E.U. do not recognise us as having and something the IDA recently warned about when it comes to foreign direct investment. Without the tax revenue such companies are generating, we would be really screwed on the double.

patnor1011 · 31-08-2022 7:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119546123#Comment_119546123

I do not argue this point. Thing is that in doing so he also set EU to the 80s or even further. That misery we are in for only depends how soon our overlords go to Moscow with cap in the hand since that is not if but rather when scenario. We still do use Russian gas and oil no matter how big our denial is, the only thing is that it is coming in through intermediaries who are lining their pockets at our expense. Not to mention that it come at additional cost like pollution since it has to be transported around half of the globe by ships instead of shiny new gas pipe. Lunacy we all will have to pay for.

patnor1011 · 31-08-2022 7:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119546415#Comment_119546415

Because no matter what we do they will end up on top of us.

If we keep sanctions then we bankrupt our economies (talking about real economies the likes of Germany not our data center economy based on cheap tax) and that will likely result in Sri Lanka scenario in quite a lot of places this winter. Russians will still sell their energy to the likes of China who will in turn sell it to us at a profit.

If we remove sanctions and go begging to Moscow we will be at their mercy thanking for what they decide to send here not to mention that they will be able to dictate the price.

We lose either way.

brickster69 · 31-08-2022 7:12pm

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1565000533609414656

Quoting Mr. Habeck energy minister for Germany in today's FT

" the business model of large parts of German manufacturing was based on the abundance of gas from Russia that was cheaper than gas from other regions. That competitive advantage won't come back soon, if it ever comes back at all"

Sweet.Science · 31-08-2022 7:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119549720#Comment_119549720

You think Russia will just say thanks lads and sell to Europe at a reasonable price . It's over . There's no going back

patnor1011 · 31-08-2022 7:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119549733#Comment_119549733

That is exactly what I said, we will be at their mercy. As for "no going back" here is where I disagree. We are still going back since we still do buy their produce and will be doing so for a long time only we have to pay double for that and it is coming through other countries.

Sweet.Science · 31-08-2022 7:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119549750#Comment_119549750

What price do you think Russia will sell it for after destroying their country? Back to pre war levels ? Or the same as being charged by China etc ?

Darth Putin · 31-08-2022 7:23pm

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/inflation-prices-dropping-deflation-economy-rates-fundstrat-stock-market-2022-8?utm_source=reddit.com

inflation cancelled

Thespoofer · 31-08-2022 7:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548270#Comment_119548270

Cam I ask a question on these if you don't mind. One of the above loans I find interesting, the premium pellets one.

Is the fact they are looking for credit a good thing or bad , given that they supply a renewable energy source, pellets. I was even recently looking at going either oil or pellet boiler for my house.

Thanks

brickster69 · 31-08-2022 8:00pm

Not going too well for ze Germans at the moment. ****ing hell ! 🤣🤣🤣

https://www.politico.eu/article/kremlin-espionage-reportedly-suspected-german-economy-ministry/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=social

Danzy · 31-08-2022 8:27pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119549985#Comment_119549985

Germany was and has been compromised by Russia at the very highest level for the last 20 years.

The head of Nord stream is a German who was an agent working with Putin in 80s. They were such close friends that Putin sent his daughters to stay with him at the collapse of the USSR just in case.

He is on good speaking terms with Angela, naturally.

Danzy · 31-08-2022 8:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119549870#Comment_119549870

Its not right to speculate on the Why of a named little company.

It would only be speculation and maybe damaging to them and their good name.

Danzy · 31-08-2022 8:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119549765#Comment_119549765

Hopefully that will feed through eventually to this side of the Atlantic.

A new peak today for inflation, there is certainly another 6 months of inflation here, but that story gives hope that it may not become a systematic problem.

rob316 · 31-08-2022 10:08pm

Our economies, atleast at local level hinge on how cold our winter is.

Ozark707 · 31-08-2022 10:27pm

Pullback now appearing in US house prices

https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1564618424034131984

EOQRTL · 31-08-2022 11:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119549720#Comment_119549720

Putin is playing the long game. It just comes down to who can take more pain, Russians who are used to it and know no better or Europeans who aren't.

Wolf359f · 31-08-2022 11:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119551494#Comment_119551494

So you think if the EU decided enough is enough and went back to Putin to turn back on the gas, he would immediately turn it back on and bring it up to full flow and back to pre-war prices? Russian gas isn't sanctioned, so what would the EU have to give in return?

Danno · 31-08-2022 11:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119547786#Comment_119547786

IMO - the biggest factor in that rate easing back was the drop in diesel prices from around 209c per litre in early July to as low as 181c per litre during mid-August.

I think this rate will rebound up again in September as I see diesel is now rising back to around 200c and slightly more in some locations in the last couple of days.

snotboogie · 31-08-2022 11:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119549720#Comment_119549720

The Power of Siberia line is the only major operational gas link between Russia and China, once its upgrades are fully completed in 2025 it will be capable of exporting 38bn cubic meters of gas per annum compared to the 160bn per annum purchased by the EU. Interested to know how you think the other 122bn cubic meters will be transported to China? Especially since Power of Siberia 2 is a fantasy at this moment because parts from the west are needed for its construction and even if somehow, the Russians and Chinese pulled it off, absolute best case scenario would be a 2030 operational start and even then it would only be able to handle 50bn cubic metres, leaving Russia with a 70bn cubic metres shortfall. Again this is fantasyland best case scenario, Russia are stuck with PoS1 and cannot replace European gas demand in China as a result.

Out of interest, what European countries do you predict to end up like Sri Lanka this winter?

patnor1011 · 01-09-2022 5:20am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119551678#Comment_119551678

Do not be solely focused on China. If you reread my comment you reacted to I said "the likes of China" which translates as pretty much every other country which take Russian gas now. Turkey for example is making killing right now.

Replacing EU gas demand is irrelevant due to price increase and the fact that Russia is currently flaring that excess gas rather than sending it to EU should be quite worrying.

Every EU country which experience subzero temperatures for most of the winter is going to end up in chaos. There is not enough coal or wood at the ready not to mention that quite a lot of houses cant use them anyway.

lumphammer2 · 01-09-2022 5:37am

It is utterly clear the world is lead or has been lead by a crowd of morons.

Our Irish government may have their faults and are not perfect but they are saints compared to the morons who are in charge of several powerful nations either at present or in the near past. It beggars belief how clueless they are ...

Ok this Covid lockdown stuff at the start ... it was a new virus, it was a panic reaction. BUT China are still acting as if it were 2020 and closing down large parts of its economy. Inviting a full scale revolution or what?

Trump and his mad sanctions against Iran ... utter suicide against the world economy. The fact that it was not ditched the minute Trump was out of office is worse.

Russia? Dear oh dear! What imbecile would launch a stupid economy destroying war after a pandemic. You'd expect better decisions in a transition year project.

Crazy ... no one has learned a thing since the Iraq war/banking crisis era recession. Not a thing learned by these brain dead morons who call themselves leaders. They are not fit to lead a school nativity play let alone superpowers.

brickster69 · 01-09-2022 7:54am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119551986#Comment_119551986

Now they openly say they don't care what the voter thinks we will just go ahead and do what we want. Unreal the arrogance of these people.

https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/1565144589832400896

brickster69 · 01-09-2022 9:20am

430 Euro billion turnaround in a year.

bb12 · 01-09-2022 9:28am

It is utterly clear the world is lead or has been lead by a crowd of ~~morons.~~ psychopaths.

fixed that for you

snotboogie · 01-09-2022 9:29am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119551978#Comment_119551978

China and Turkey are eating the Russias lunch on energy prices as the Russians have lost their biggest trading partners and have no leverage. China are believed the be paying about 20% below market price at the moment. Btw turkstream has a max capacity of 30 billion cubic metres per year, so quite a bit away from the 122 billion shortfall if you try to replace the EU with China. Where else are they going to sell to? Kazakhstan? Belarus?

Russia are flaring gas because they are desperate and have nowhere to sell it. You can’t just stop gas production, they are burning billions of dollars because of their geopolitical incompetence.

What counties will end up like Sri Lanka this winter then? You are saying cold countries that relied on Russian oil and gas, so in that case we should expect the Danish state to collapse before February 2023?