Scottish independence

They are a hard bunch to work out. They seem to be in love with the Tory Party and with right wing English nationalism and to hate Sturgeon and the SNP with a vengeance.

As you say though, a lot of them might be English immigrants or even English people living in England itself but pretending to be Scottish residents.

But the wish for EU membership is 100% about economics.

It about trade and the value of trade, it's not about any cultural ties with Denmark, The Netherlands or someplace like Bulgaria.

And they are dead right to pursue membership if they do get independence.

I read the SNP white paper from the 2014 vote and it was heavy on the economic benefits that would allegedly be coming from independence.

And what exactly is stifling that wish for a Scottish version of Riverdance.

I think it's her very calm, reasonable, unruffled manner; added to the very genuine English fear of losing control of all that productive land and sea.

They keep saying that Scotland couldn't pay for itself, but have you ever heard a central government say different about a region or colony that wants to control its own destiny?

There was also a little matter like the English refused to allow the expansion of their colonies west of the Appallacian mountains, into their Indian allies' lands. This would have been one of the major, unstated, reasons for breaking away.

And by holding off they probably increase the yes vote.

But there is nothing to stop at the fringe when there is a wide world out there.

What part of being in the union exactly is preventing the promotion of Scottish culture?

Your original point (which I agree with) is that you need a lot more than economic arguments to make a successful independence movement.

To quote yourself "heart, national pride and preservation of their culture that will drive independence movements"

And I agree with that also.

I also agree that Scotland should decide.

But what I don't agree with is that the examples you have given in the past few posts are enough to ensure a successful independence referendum.

Scottish culture is not under threat, Scottish identity is not under threat.

Both are existing and doing well in the status quo.

I don't think there are enough Scots willing to take the economic hit of going independent because of some perceived threat to their identity.

Economics might not be a solid argument for independence but it is certainly used by voters as a reason to reject independence.

The post you are quoting doesn't seem to deal with Scottish culture and more about Scotland's ability to partake in deals like Erasmus. The current Tory position is isolationist and creates issues for athletes and musicians travelling abroad. A position Scotland very heavily opposed and appears to still oppose given the SNPs success in elections. The fact is that Scotland will never be seen as anything but an underling. The current Prime Minister has stated the opinion that a Scottish person should not be able to lead the UK.

As you say Scotland should decide but if they decide not to leave now the choice will be taken away from them for decades at a minimum and so they will, I don't want to say lose the right to decide since they don't really have it in the first place but lose any chance of deciding. Had the UK decided to stay in the EU they would have retained the right to ask the question again whenever they wanted.

For the economy I would suggest Scotland take the equivalent of the Norway deal but with the UK. The aim should be to minimise the initial influx of change and make any desired changes slowly over time to reduce the economic hit. Also while Scotland is doing ok economically as part of the union I would say it may not be sustainable. They are one of the few regions in the UK outside of London who have managed this so it shouldn't be counted on long term. Indeed as soon as the economic outlook becomes worse they will become more dependent on London for handouts, one of the main arguments for Northern Ireland to stay in the UK is that the UK has crippled it to the point where it would take a massive project to fix if and when it rejoins the rest of Ireland. So from an economic point of view Scotland may not have forever to make this decision.

The point I am making is as follows.

People tend not to seek independence based purely on economic reasons.

Independence in the short to medium term will result in poorer economic outcomes, and this naturally puts people off independence.

So parties that promote independence need another angle.

Culture and identity, and love of that culture and identity is another angle, and it's an angle made even stronger if that culture and identity is see as being under threat.

So what is gets independence over the line for Scotland.

The economic argument wouldn't work and the culture and identity is not suppressed or under threat.

I'm not suggesting that Scotland doesn't have an identity or culture that is different from the rest of the UK

I'm arguing that the desire to separate that culture and identity even further from the UK will not outweigh the desire not to become poorer in the process.

It doesn't matter what you think.

But what percentage of Scottish people hold the same "it's hard even to imagine her being 'British'" view ?

Enough to allow them break away from the UK ?

No one is doubting the difference between the Scots and the English, the question is how may Scots wants that difference to be bigger and more defined politically.

Interesting opinion piece here on Welsh independence. It makes the point that it's polling similar numbers to what Scottish independence was doing circa '07.

Poll seems to be based on this recent one from YouGov when the 'don't knows' are excluded:

I suspect if Scotland goes independent within the next few years, the numbers for Welsh independence will grow. I'm just not convinced the Welsh appetite is as strong as Scotland's. I could see Wales being willing to settle for some sort of Home Rule/devo max type arrangement. I think that ship has sailed for Scotland.

Not enough. I wouldn't underestimate the potential for civil unrest similar to NI if they did vote for independence also.

Open to correction but I can't think of a country that has peacefully parted ways with Britain.

Also the English establishment knows full well the consequences of losing Scotland in terms of landmass, resources, prestige, security and relevance.

Look how they spent 100 years holding/propping up NI.

I have a hard time believing England will simply let the Scots go. There'll be all sorts of dilution in any negotiation after a vote.

They'll claim they have to protect British people and all the rest.

Then you'll get the trouble.

Agree, there's no way the rest of GB is going to sign up to force. Maybe a bit of street violence/disgruntlement but it will be a peaceful transition.