FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3 - Threadbanned User List in OP

Some noises about what the Budget is likely to do on the energy costs issue. There seems to be a very large war chest planned, which is a good thing.

TBF there was very little noise about the €200. As long as there seems to be enough support available and it is generally suitably targeted it should be little more than that "need to do more" favoured by advocacy groups. I think they will focus a lot more on quick and easy one-off cash handouts, and we have oodles of that.

Incredible numbers for FFG when I think back over the years. Can you recall where FG was polling in 2011? The SF % seems to be solid now. I do think the SDs will be the 4th largest party after GE.Next. Hopefully higher. I wonder will we see a new party emerge over the next few years. I am sure there are members who would like a clean break from the toxic FF/FG/Lab labels.

Thanks jmcc

New and smaller parties rarely get above tiny niche status and tend to have a very short shelf life. The PDs succeeded because they had a very good roster to start with and the jury is till out on the two leader entity of the SDs.

Also puzzled by the claim that FG is the bastion of conservatism, historically that has been a long-standing FF trait. If anything the original bigger three cover a far wider spectrum of the electorate, in terms of appeal, than the dogma of the left. That's why people have tended to vote for them.

Google/Wikipedia is your friend on this. Interesting that Labour were on 35% at one point in that election cycle before ending up at 20%. FG BTW only had 21% in the last GE so still in that ballpark.

They failed because FF , as it always does, took all their clothes, they still got 25 years of life or so. Initially they appealed because they were not FF but as FF "evolved! they eventually served no further purpose.

How is this 'likely'? Do you think Mary Harney will be announcing her triumphant return to politics ahead of her 80th birthday next year? AFAICS there is little or no appetite among Irish voters for a right-wing or even centrist alternative to FF and FG...

The PDs were only ever Provisional Fianna Fail. They had a chance to go mainstream with Pat Cox but instead installed Mary Harney as leader. With Cox as leader, there would have been a chance that they could have gained more support and eclipsed FG. Cox beat Dessie O'Malley for a Euro seat and later became president of the European Parliament. The larger parties also adopt the more popular polices of niche parties as their own. The PD's big issue was income tax. After that, they didn't have much to distinguish themselves from FF/FG. Much like Labour, they were dependent on transfers. When the transfers disappeared, so did they.

FG's social liberalism is quite a recent thing. Labour, for much of its existence, was nothing more than a mudguard for FF/FG. When it was nearly obliterated in 2016, it was obvious that FF and FG would eventually end up in coalition within an election cycle or so.

Regards...jmcc

On the Trump associations of FG, Varadkar made a phone call.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43425048

Regards...jmcc

You really haven't a clue about Irish politics. Labour was so toxic that it went from 37 seats in 2011 to 7 seats in 2016. Its current leader only got elected in Dublin Bay South because of Varadkar's pettiness about Kate O'Connell. Had she been the FG candidate, she would have won the seat. And FF's candidate in that bye-election only managed 4.6% of the first preference vote. Had FG managed its vote in 2020, she could have won the seat instead of Jim O'Callaghan/FF. FF is, according to the latest opinion poll down to 16%. FG is at 21% and Varadkar and Martin are increasingly unpopular. Troy Story has caused serious problems for FF and now Donnelly is causing problems, Martin reappointed Calleary of Golfgate infamy. A great way to get the electorate to remember that politicians partied while people died. And Labour is not in the coalition government of Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and the Green Party.

Regards...jmcc

Most interesting thing is how fragmented Irish politics has become. Very hard to pick a working coalition goverment from those figures. SF + SD + Lab + PBP + Aú = 51% vs. FF + FG + GP is only 38%. Minority government is on the way and the balance of power will likely be held by looney independents focused on local issues that are the jobs of County councillors. Will be all down to covering those percentages to seats for SF and seeing if they can get some coalition partners on board, which I feel they'll struggle to do. Could be a very disappointing result for SF voters.

FF and FG used to routinely get over 80% of the votes in GEs a few decades ago. What has happened is that the electorate has changed and more parties have emerged to take advantage of those changes. The parties that haven't evolved gradually lost seats. Even FF and FG tried to reinvent themselves as being somewhat liberal and latched on to the various referenda issues.

The important thing to remember about opinion polls is that they generally only ask about first preference votes and guesstimate support at a national level. Outside the poll toppers, most TDs are elected on transfers. SF needs to be over 40% to get enough seats for a majority government while FF and FG run a serious risk of under-performing by knocking out each other's candidates.

Regards...jmcc

Not that recent. It came out of the 60s at a time when FF was effectively a mudguard of the RCC. Fitzgerald would never have proposed the 8th; it was landed on him by the FF deal with the Church. In government they also lifted the ban on contraception in 1985 and backed divorce too in 1986.

Their conservatism was more fiscal in contrast to the freewheeling and somewhat reckless FF(twice!). They've also been seen as the party of law and order.