FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3 - Threadbanned User List in OP

shirrup · 04-09-2022 12:53pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568980#Comment_119568980

A collection of posters that see FF defend FG, and FG defend FF, and post on an internet forum, (that's current affairs related) that they view the party's to be essentially one and the same means it's some sort of a "tactic"?

Perhaps it's just folk describing what they're seeing going on in front of their faces?

The fact you can't see the wood from the trees is not my concern.

is_that_so · 04-09-2022 12:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568986#Comment_119568986

I think you're indulging in silly pedantry here and I'm not sure why you feel the need. These decisions were made by a government led by FG under collective responsibility so how exactly is it suddenly a faction that was at the core of it? Let's not talk about 2007, the auction politics across the whole political system in that election were embarrassing!

jmcc · 04-09-2022 1:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568991#Comment_119568991

The ex-Labour TD was a Dungarvan TD. The problem was that she went against the City and ended up as a one term TD. Labour support has also declined considerably in the city but some of that has been due to the loss of large factories and employers. What was more interesting in the 2020 GE was how FG was demolished. Apart from FG running two candidates when it only had enough votes for a single seat, it also ran into the backlash over the incompetent Harris and Varadkar and their mishandling of the Waterford University Hospital issues (cardiac care and the morgue). People across the political spectrum voted for Matt Shanahan. In the Locals, FG had also collapsed in the wards/constituencies where it once would have been expected to do well so the writing was on the wall for a wipeout at the GE.

Regards...jmcc

brokenangel · 04-09-2022 1:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119569000#Comment_119569000

Not really worried about you think I can/can’t see

As I said someone pushing the FF/FG are the same clearly have zero understanding of politics and especially Irish politics

Not sure what boards and people posting has to do with that? Maybe you could elaborate more?

shirrup · 04-09-2022 1:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568996#Comment_119568996

Yes that's obviously understandable, but my main point stands, a few years ago before the two essentially merged, they'd have been calling for retrospective ministers/TDS heads (Frances Fitzgerald being an example).

Now, because they need each other, they're backing each other to the hilt.

No one will convince me that, if the two weren't in coalition that FFers would have backed Conveney/Varadkar, or that Leo would have backed and described Troy as "top class".

Their biggest challenge is still in front of them, convincing an electorate, sick and tired of their antics, pretending that they're different from each other. Seriously, how will 2 candidates from either party convince members of their areas to vote for him or her, over the other?

They're going to be stained as being one and the same now permanently.

04-09-2022 1:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119569026#Comment_119569026

Local FG members refused to canvass for em at last election,after varadkar threw local doctors concerns under a bus at an interview shortly before it,esp as the controversy compounded with emergence of letters under FOI.......was 1st incident locally that eviscerated him personally,given his family is based just outside abbeyside orginally

(and had alot of goodwill until then being 1st proper Waterford connected taoiseach since mulcahy stepped aside,and the historical view of how Waterford been treated/downgraded since)

many FG members went onto canvass for Matt shanahan,leading rise to view he was to join FG post election (until it's Dublin leadership blocked this)....he has despite my own misgivings proven to be a reasonably adept TD,who represented Waterford well (nice bloke too,would know him vaguely through work)........

but the notion labour is doing well is beyond me,they are meant be running some young fellow from out around bunmahon next time,so maybe being mid-county might help,but FG have gone same stragedy too,with a well known,kilrossanty man supposedly in the mix for running and actively training him for media interviews

It being a 5 seater next time,is making for a fascinating prospect

shirrup · 04-09-2022 1:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119569060#Comment_119569060

Not sure what boards and people posting has to do with that? Maybe you could elaborate more?

Glad to, we're discussing that we view FF and FG to be essentially the same party on this forum, which is on the website, boards.ie. You accused us of applying some kind of "tactic" at pointing that out.

Surely you remember? It was only a few minutes ago.

brokenangel · 04-09-2022 1:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119569092#Comment_119569092

Never said I didn't. Are you going to explain or do we need another few posts? 😴😴😴😴😴😴

shirrup · 04-09-2022 1:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119569123#Comment_119569123

I don't follow, what do you want me to explain? If it's how I personally view FF and FG as being essentially one and the same party, I've already provided explanations, they are contained in various posts I made earlier. I've did likewise with your "tactic" accusations.

I don't know what else you would need me to elaborate on or further explain to you, to be quite honest you aren't really making any sense at all and seem to be posting for the sake of it.

jmcc · 04-09-2022 1:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119569082#Comment_119569082

Matt Shanahan is much smarter than John Cummins and would probably have been a good replacement for John Deasy. What makes Shanahan's support interesting is that it is cross-spectrum rather than simply FG.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waterford_(D%C3%A1il_constituency)#2020_general_election

Shanahan even got transfers from Cullinane/SF.

Cummins ran into the classic FG problem of being a good FG vote getter while not being able to get many floating votes. He was the City FG candidate whereas Geoghegan was the county FG candidate.

FG really made a mess of its candidate selection strategy in 2020. It allowed neo-Unionists like Charlie Flanagan and John Bruton to go off trying to commemorate the Black and Tans/RIC. A real FG leader, rather than the preening fop Varadkar, would have shut that down immediately as a vote loser. I think that it was close to 30% in the polls before Christmas 2019. FG even tried to appropriate the legacy of Michael Collins despite the fact that Collins was only ever a member of Sinn Fein. And to see Martin creepily trying to latch on to FG's misappropriation recently shows just how much FFG fears SF. Both FF and FG have serious leadership problems that need to be solved before the next GE. The underlying problem for FF and FG is that they both rely too much on HQ style candidate selection. FF's cumman system was destroyed under Ahern and Cowen and that's one of the reasons for FF's decline.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc · 04-09-2022 2:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568980#Comment_119568980

You really don't understand Irish politics or culture. Irish politics is a blood sport without the blood.

As for your attempt to rehabilitate the disgraced Labour party, Labour was infitrated and destroyed by the Stickies. Some of these Stickies (Official Sinn Fein/Sinn Fein the Workers Party/the Workers Party/Democratic Left) were in government with FG while FG was making a mess of the Peace Process in NI. These political pension tourists retired after Labour was left a rotting political corpse of a party with only 7 seats in 2016.

The electorate thinking of FF and FG as a single party has already happened and is supported by data. A poll a few months ago asked about second preferences. People who said that they would vote FF or FG said that their transfers would go to FG or FF or vice versa. The transfer data from the 2020 GE showed FF and FG voters actively transfering to FF and FG candidates. FF and FG are coallescing into an ABSF party. (Anyone But Sinn Fein).

It was Martin's incompetent leadership of FF that has, from 2016, sacrificed FF's independent identity and some FFers are not pleased. (FF would have won more than 50 seats had it differentiated itself from FG.) Martin's incompetent leadership of FF basically lost seats for FF in the 2020 GE. Varadkar's serial incompetence in losing seats in every election produced one of FG's worst ever general election results with FG being beaten into third place behind SF.

Despite your blustering, the facts and the votes show that the electorate now considers FF and FG to be a single party.

Regards...jmcc

shirrup · 04-09-2022 3:22pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119569173#Comment_119569173

So you don't understand the point you tried to make. 🤦‍♂️

You are making absolutely zero sense now. What point exactly did I try to make, that you think I don't understand?

I absolutely have every belief that your posting just for the sake of it.

Will leave you to it, maybe stay off trying to say FF and FG are the same rubbish, nobody is buying that. Well sorry nobody was incorrect, nobody who understands Irish politics.

WTAF? absolute gobbledygook.

jmcc · 04-09-2022 3:50pm

This is a statistical analysis of the 2020 GE by the Oireachtas:

https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/libraryResearch/2020/2020-02-20_l-rs-infographic-general-election-2020-a-statistical-profile_en.pdf

This is a project of seat counts based on the 2020 GE and a July 2022 opinion poll. I'm not sure that past performance is a good predictor of future performance when both GEs are effectively occurring in highly abnormal situations. The 2020 GE was at the start of the Covid pandemic and the next GE wil be dealing with the aftermath of the war in Ukraine and profiteering by energy companies.

https://irishelectionprojections.com/2022/07/31/july-2022-projections-update/

This site, Elections Ireland, is probably the best site on election statistics in Ireland.

https://electionsireland.org/results/general/33dail.cfm

It also has constituency breakdowns and transfer analysis. It is possible to see the FF-FG transfers in action on the Transfer Analysis pages. This is the one for Waterford.

https://electionsireland.org/transfers.cfm?election=2020&cons=226

In Varadkar's consituency, the transfers from FG to FF are apparent:

https://electionsireland.org/transfers.cfm?election=2020&cons=112

The Green candidate owes his seat to transfers from FG.

Regards...jmcc

brokenangel · 04-09-2022 6:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119569334#Comment_119569334

"You really don't understand Irish politics or culture." Bit of manners...this is a discussion forum

You seem to be afraid of someone with a different opinion, if someone doesn't agree with you it ends up with petty comments. I see nothing new from you but rehashed noise. An opinion poll is exactly what it says on the tin, an opinion poll. Nothing else. Only an election counts. The way you go on you think an opinion poll was an election

We are over 2 years from an election so totally pointless as people in politics would be aware of. It will only start to give a view once manifestos etc come out and then we will see what is going to happen. A lot of people only decide on which way they will vote based on manifesto's and the reviews done by press/tv etc. Let see what happens then.

I am not doing anything with Labour. I just said they won't get rid of the name Labour out of Irish politics and they won't. Even more ridiculous was the suggestion FF and FG would remove their names.

If you knew about politics at the local level FF and FG you would know first off FF and FG will never join. Second, the electorate don't see them as one no matter how much a few people online push it. It is fun to watch....don't let me stop you

P.S. People who support either FF or FG probably do say they would give transfers to FG or others because of the carry on of certain supporters online. I have been saying that for 2 years...the online mob is back firing spectacularly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119569662#Comment_119569662

Sorry I have lost you, what point was it you are making?

brokenangel · 04-09-2022 6:47pm

Just a bit on transfer and it might explain

Once I have made the votes for the party I support at that election I will also look at what other good politicians are in the area. So if I was in the area let’s say and after I voted I seen Mary Lou I would give her a vote because after all she is a good politicians

I would vote personally for Leo because of the childrens hospital and I was in an area with Leo for a number of years. Would I vote for Helen McEntee, 100%

So yes I might not agree with all their policies but I know they are a good TD and will do a good job 👍

This ain’t rocket science and a lot of people would follow similar patterns…it was always the same with Greens and I know a number of people would have voted them in to get transfers over others because they are aware of teh environment

Anyway please choose to ignore if you want, thanks

emo72 · 04-09-2022 7:04pm

whether FF or FG are viewed as the same or different parties is irrelevant. they are viewed as the parties that have basically run the country since the foundation of the state, and led us to the clusterfuck of a country we are in now. they will both be obliterated in the next GE.

jmcc · 04-09-2022 7:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119571009#Comment_119571009

It may be a case of them obliterating each other. They both going for the ABSF vote in the next GE.That puts them in direct competition for the same votes but the effect is amplified by voters considering them to be much the same party. It could result in a highly unusual effect where SF and the non-FF/FG parties could benefit from what is effectively an FF/FG civil war over votes. SF will also be running more candidates in the next GE so some of the transfers that got Left leaning candidates elected in 2020 will not be there. In addition to Housing and Health being major election issues, the rising cost of energy bills might also make things a lot worse for FFG. Vote FF, get FG will put a lot of people off voting for either.

Regards...jmcc

04-09-2022 7:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119559705#Comment_119559705

She's the minister and the buck is supposed to stop with her. However I suspect it is the mandarins who call the shots,,,,and fcuk up everything as their counterparts have done in multiple departments.

20 years ago I bumped into my old chemistry teacher who told me that the difficulty in science and math had fallen by about 20%. A huge nuber of good but effectively mediocre students are getting grades based on lower standards or easier marking, pulling all the standards down. A neighbor who teaches maths and physics says the difficulty of the subjects is less than it was....where does it stop? And while the minister needs the proverbial cojones ripped from here, why are the police makers and mandarins unaccountable?

shirrup · 04-09-2022 8:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119569173#Comment_119569173

I'm going to be kind here and say that your behaviour is merely odd. This is you.

So you don't understand the point you tried to make. 🤦‍♂️

And a short while later this is also you.

Sorry I have lost you, what point was it you are making?

Sometimes I get the feeling your letting a cat walk across your keyboard, settling for any random selection of words that gets churned out.

Keep it up, it's great entertainment value.

Galwayguy35 · 04-09-2022 9:05pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119571009#Comment_119571009

I don't think FG will be obliterated, they might lose a few seats but theiy will keep their core vote, FF on the other hand is a harder one to call but they definately won't be wiped out.

I think the biggest victims of a SF surge in the next GE will be the smaller parties.

Either way its going to be the most interesting GE result coverage in my lifetime anyway and I'll be glued to the tele.

road_high · 04-09-2022 9:11pm

FG have treated their core support (ie Me) with nothing but contempt. Varadkar knows this hence the dusting off of the empty promises on middle income taxation that they’ve been peddling fur over ten years but of course have done zilch to implement. I honestly see their support around the 20 seat mark which is their diehard skeleton support base. Outside of south Dublin there’s nothing but fury with FG

jmcc · 04-09-2022 9:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119571549#Comment_119571549

It seems that Varakdar is quickly running out of friends in FG. Many of his clique have left politics (Hayes, Murphy etc). He has lost too many seats for FG and the prospect of him losing more at the next GE should really be worrying FG management. The 20 seats may actually be a worst case scenario for FG with FF even dropping to just below 30. The problem with political mediocrities like Varakdar is that they usually appoint people who are worse than themselves because they are less of a threat. Donohoe may be an exception to the rule. If FG removes Varadkar and Martin finally fecks off if FFG reaches the December handover, then it may be quite a different GE. Varadkar lost what should have been a safe seat in Dublin Bay South. FG really needs to deal with two problems: Varadkar and its candidate strategy. The middle income taxation issue probably means that middle income taxpayers will have to pay for all the goodies that FFG will give away in the budget.

Regards...jmcc

brokenangel · 04-09-2022 9:27pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119571521#Comment_119571521

Of course FG won't be obliterated, they have too many good TDs and no matter for all the bluster on here those TD's will get voted in.

FF depends on who and when the replace their leader. If FF are going to make a serious run at the next election they need to pick a new leader sooner rather than later and then I would hope the leader comes out strong and says they have no interest in a coalition with SF.

A lot of talk from people about polls, mostly because they are desperate for them to come true. In reality polls only count a lot closer to an election and especially when manifestos come out, some parties got an easy run last time but expect them to be fully pulled apart this election.

If FF have a good manifesto, new leader with a good plan they will hold seats and probably gain.

FG is unknown because it depends on how Varadkar does when Taoiseach, all the bluster online from the mob in reality is playing into his hands as 2 years of this nonsense is boring now, especially after covid. Everyone has had enough of it.

I think you will know in the weeks before how the election is going to go.....

Also, would people pull another revolt and just vote for X party like the last time? could you see random independents picking up seats for instance because people decide not to vote for a party? thats the unknown factor.

road_high · 04-09-2022 9:46pm

Who exactly are all these “good TDs” FG have? Because honestly all I see are intellectually vacant charisma bypasses like Helen Mcentee et al

emo72 · 04-09-2022 9:46pm

"If FF have a good manifesto, new leader with a good plan they will hold seats and probably gain"

Seriously broken angel. FF to gain seats? Hopefully you'll still be here in 2025 if it goes that far. Me, I predict they'll lose seats.

FF delivered the country to the IMF, FG sold it to cuckoo funds. They will be obliterated.

Loafing Oaf · 04-09-2022 9:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119571619#Comment_119571619

I would hope the leader comes out strong and says they have no interest in a coalition with SF.

Dream on...

Which potential new FF leader do you think would be likely to make such a commitment?

brokenangel · 04-09-2022 9:56pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119571722#Comment_119571722

Why wouldn't they? the FF voters want nothing to do with SF. A couple of TD's came out years ago suggesting a coalition and that did not go down well. Not well at all.....

brokenangel · 04-09-2022 10:02pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119571699#Comment_119571699

Im sure plenty of people sat in 2011 telling everyone what the future would be in Irish politics. None of them right.

Maybe I wil be around in 2025 but I doubt the same people will be around and admit if they got it wrong.

I think it is funny all these predictions of doom around the government parties yet if the housing crisis is resolved in the next 18-24 months what would happen then?

If you want to look back and pick the bad moment, why not pick all the good ones these parties have delivered? by the way look across the road at the opposition and its like looking into a field of thistles to see if any of them have delivered anything good. Maybe Labour can point out some good work, the rest???

Loafing Oaf · 04-09-2022 10:05pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119571753#Comment_119571753

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ff-tds-would-not-exclude-sinn-fein-coalition-after-next-election-1.4478483

All TDs who offered their views to The Irish Times expressed various reservations about Sinn Féin from their economic policies to qualms about the party’s history but none ruled out the prospect of talks.

Looks to me like there is no strong opposition within FF to a deal with SF. If there was even one TD who wanted to rule it out would he not have sought to lay down a marker in that article.

dasa29 · 04-09-2022 10:34pm

Guys I understand everybody's opinion on what's going to happening in the 2025 GE but at present SF need the GE to be before May/June 2024 for a very simple reason and that is the Local Elections are going to be in May/June 2024.

FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3 - Threadbanned User List in OP

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