Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

The history of coalition in this country is littered with junior coalition parties thrown under buses.

Serving in coalition government can be bad for junior partner’s health – The Irish Times

What's in it for FF? - very simple. To separate them for what has been a disastrous dalliance with FG. (Firmly trending in the mid teens in the polls no matter what MM does)

Either they want to forge a new identity or the perception that they are the same thing on offer as FG deepens.

You cannot discuss SF's route to power without factoring in the predicament of the parties they might coalesce with.

There also seems to me to be a lot of pearl clutching going on about SF having the ability to get an overall majority. Unless there is a massive upswing in the fortunes of the electorate (I can't see that happening with what is coming towards us) that is a very real possibility as the clapometer of the polls pushes towards the 40% mark.

There would only be a case for a 'revolving Taoiseach' if SF and FF end up with similar numbers of seats. That looks unlikely at this stage.

Also, 40% is not at all unlikely as the trend in the poll shows IMO.

Whether FF would go into a coalition will come down to a programme for government and if they can see potential progress there.

Seems to me you cannot fluff the Greens for doing it and then rule out another party seeing potential there.

I disagree, there is a significant portion of FF that sees the dalliance with FG as humiliation. I expect them to become more vocal as MM's grip loosens.

It will come down to a programme for government IMO.

How a party trending in the mid 30's in the polls can reach 40% is 'fantasy' defeats me, but whatever.

They've already tried that and polls show the electorate are not impressed. Can FF in particular, in the mid teens in the polls risk it again?

The boy with his finger in the dyke springs to mind, does it not?

I don't think you fully grasp what has been happening in the opinion polls.

FG are where they were at the last election, FF a bit down.

SF's increase has come at the expense of the Greens, SDs, independents and Labour. The electorate are not impressed with those parties, but FF and FG, in the midst of some of the biggest crises to hit this country, are holding steady, albeit at the low levels of the last election.

I have set out clearly above SF's routes to government, and wishful thinking won't change that. Your vision is of the mighty FF as a junior partner to a surging SF. While that might make you giddy with anticipation, no serious FF strategist will touch that. A SF brought back down to mid-20s earth with an equal partner in FF at a similar level is a possibility. In that way, FF make themselves once again the party of government, alternating with FG and SF, depending on the election result. As a small junior partner, no chance of FF going in, better to lick their wounds in opposition. FG won't touch SF, their core vote demands that.

There is a great deal of 'entitlement' barely submerged in that post.

The idea that FF and FG will always be the dictators of who has power here is heavily laid on.

As I said earlier, if you achieve the majority vote, the problems lie with the also rans. The attention will be on what way they handle the democratic decision of the people. I think a lot of people believe that wasn't handled well last time and the perception that a democratic vote is being rejected out of hand by two parties, desperate to cling to power would deepen, rightly or wrongly.

And I think, looking at backbench sentiment in FF and some sentiments expressed by front benchers, that sitting in opposition will only lay their core vote open to more pressure to look elsewhere. That's another 'pressure' to factor in.

Re-entering a FG FF coalition would be suicide IMO not having a go with a party that has the highest support of any party in the Oireachtas.

Again, I think a programme for government will be the key and with MM gone, I can't see why that won't be possible.

Suicide for a FF led by MM maybe. Not so much by somebody else who has indicated that they would have no issues with a SF coalition. Reported to be as high as 20 here:

I would take "entitlement" over wishful thinking and dreaming.

FF cannot go into government as anything less than an equal partner with a rotating Taoiseach, no matter whether that is FG or SF. If the choice for FF is rotating Taoiseach with FG or junior party with SF, the answer is FG all day long.

The dictators of power aren't FF or FG, they are the political realities and the numbers of seats. No matter which way you look at it, and a number of other posters are confirming this, SF as an equal partner to FF or SF leading a rabble of the left are the only two routes to power on current and likely polling numbers. To get FF in, Mary-Lou may even have to concede first go at Taoiseach.

When potential voters look at SF, they see hope. That is often driven by a distrust or dislike of the traditionally larger parties and of course their monopolization of government. Around election time people start to pay attention to election promises and make their decisions about who to vote for. Some, I'd like to think, do read the manifestos and have a think about which might best suit them. These are really centrist voters that the catch-all of FF and FG and to a smaller degree Labour court because that is where elections are won and lost. They are the floating voters and depending on their mood they can choose any of those types of parties. SF would not really be on the list.

There is a large risk associated with this type of "hope" voting for SF. SF, to certain groups, represent the antithesis of political establishment in Ireland. One could argue that people are not necessarily voting for something but against a status quo. That's really not the same as being in favour of what they propose.

If posters are looking for a political example of what might happen to SF, the punishment doled out to Labour in 1997 is the best example. There were an awful lot of furious voters and suddenly ex-members of Labour who were disgusted at Spring’s decision to go in with FF. The irony is that they get a fair bit of credit for that 1994-1997 government which kicked off some of this new Ireland, as voters understood that coalition with FG in particular was kind of a natural place for them to be. 2016 was perhaps a lesser example but their wild and stupid remarks in 2011 came back to haunt them.

What Labour could tell SF is that votes that seem to come their way don't stay there, especially if they are seen to mess up, save those who will vote for a party’s position all the time. Labour have plenty of practice of compromise and yet still get some of their policies enacted. SF have never had to do that. How might these voters cope with their need to explain that promises made just can't be achieved in government? Will their voters accept that kind of compromise? 

For now I see rerun of some form of what we've had for the last decade, possibly with more bodies. SF may rage against the so-called undemocratic nature of that but their inclusion would be dependent on way too many moving parts.

There are many who clung to a delusion after the last election that because SF won the most seats, that they deserved to be in power. If that was the case, we would have had decades and decades of unbroken FF rule because they always won the most seats right up until 2011.

Being the largest party in a system of many parties is a guarantee of nothing.

I think it's fairly obvious what I am referring to. The issue of coalescing for the first time in 100 years rather than talking to the party that achieved the highest vote.

I said at the time it would come back to bite them and I haven't changed my mind. Both of them are between a rock and a hard place and if people delude themselves into thinking that a similar response (another coalition of the two) won't further damage them then that is for themselves. I don't think that delusion holds any sway in FF at the minute tbh. Even Martin has been chastened and isn't categorically ruling out a coalition. He knows the potential damage that might do now.

The democratic decision of the electorate was to give FF, FG and the Greens a working overall majority. What bit of that don't you understand?

SF couldn't cut a deal with anyone. That is the other reality. I hate repeating myself, but the answers to your questions about what they do in the next election was already given to you pages ago.

Finally, the idea that somehow the current government is undemocratic or didn't reflect the democratic will of the Irish people is as Trumpian as you can get in an Irish context.