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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,274 ✭✭✭EOQRTL


    There you go responding with a one liner. Tut tut, maybe you really need that abacus after all.

    I'm done debating with you. No matter what excellent points posters have put to you, you have failed time and again to back up your frankly ridiculous outlook on the current crisis. Everything is rosy to you and that's fine, at least own it and let the rest of us talk about the reality of the world we now face into in Europe.

    Some of us have to work and pay for all the present and coming price hikes. I don't even know why i keep responding to an obvious bot worse fool me in fairness but lesson learned and i won't be making that mistake again.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,036 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Covid was self-inflicted, the lockdowns were government policy, the economic issues they created were brought on ourselves. And it was a walk in the park compared to the current energy crisis.

    People who know a lot more than you or I have said that Europes current energy woes are worse than 1970s oil crisis, how much worse is yet to be seen, but i'd take 2012 or covid over a return to 1970s any day. It really is that bad. Covering your eyes and ears and wishing it will be grand will only make your landing worse.

    Every 2nd post has references to Z swastika, putinbots or russian army murdering and raping. If thats not name calling and petty insults i dont know what is.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,382 ✭✭✭✭Geuze




  • Registered Users Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin


    Thank you for engaging in civilised debate (unlike some)

    I however disagree with your assessment, there used to be a time when “Germans” were extremely opposed to helping out other eu countries during the euro crisis and it was painted as doom and gloom and end of euro and EU

    The ECB stepped in and done just that.

    The opposition to fracking will crumble especially if seen as s bridging measure to a zero carbon future while remaining energy independent, I am sure the famous German engineers can do that quickly and cleanly and there are no lack of companies with expertise, the US went from massive energy importer to exporter in a couple of years and that’s while the tech was new.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,890 ✭✭✭enricoh


    If you don't agree with him you're a Putin bot! Darth Putin iirc lives in the US but tells us what's best for us here- which is nice!



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,036 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    The German Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources estimates that about 450 billion cubic meters (4500 TWh) of natural gas are held in coal seams and another 2,300 billion cubic meters (23,000 TWh) in shale rock. Extraction would only be possible through fracking.


    But the process is banned in Germany on the basis that the chemicals used in fracking pollute the environment and groundwater. And even if the ban were lifted, German fracked gas would still not be available this winter — or even next.


    "Even if we were to open up to the use of fracking technology now, it would probably take up to four or five years before production could begin," said Ludwig Möhring, BVEG's chief executive. 

    The reserves are there, but the expertise is not, and the time to any production is half a decade. To be energy independent from fracking could be 10 or more years, likely much more as the pool of companies with experience in setting up a fracking operation is so small.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    I see some merit in your POV , the government and the Greens particularly have a lot to answer for. Why are they increasing carbon tax on Diesel when there is no other alternative for this commodity, its just charging more for something that has to be used. We don't have the numbers with regards electrical points to charge the EVs or EVs for that matter and we have poor transport links in the country so for someone living 10k or more out side of a town what alternatives other than driving have they got. Someone needs to grow a pair and frack away and get our own gas supply for say the next decade and the government need to roll back on the green agenda for the next decade. Yeah it does go against the whole green agenda but no point in us trying to save the planet if people are found freezing in their homes over the winter. You only have to look at the emissions Ireland are producing its a miniscule figure with regards to the amount being sent into the atmosphere China are up at nearly 30% the US at nearly 15%. Why in the hell are our government forcing a narrative of taxing a commodity that there is currently no replacement for at a time when the price for diesel/petrol has gone through the roof. We are being told our planet is going die in the next 100/1000/10000 years (depending on the expert) due to carbon emissions so their logic is lets look after the long term and phuck the short term, their approach will be to let everyone freeze over the next couple of years (how many people will die this way?). Putin has played this well don't get me wrong this will backfire spectacularly for all the oil and gas rich countries within a decade as people will no longer be addicted to their cheap oil and gas, but until our green energy technology evolves we should be fracking for gas and going into oil exploration to look after the short to medium term.


    https://www.worldometers.info/co2-emissions/co2-emissions-by-country/



  • Registered Users Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin


    thats another short term measure can be done now, cut the tax and taxes on taxes, that would lead to immediate relief for consumers and businesses

    plenty room to manoeuvre there as half of fuels is tax



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,036 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    There is going to have to be some serious demand reduction for electricity EU wide in the next few years - unwinding of emissions/carbon regulations could see more coal and oil being used, but oil again will be in shorter supply. Coal too actually, most of ours is from Russia or Colombia since polish mines closed.

    Big questions need asked now of leadership - do we continue aiming for the perfect clean energy scenario, which is further out of reach? Or be pragmatic and allow mining for coal, new oil & gas exploration etc.

    Would be a good opportunity to build better rail infrastructure to reduce car journeys and move more freight onto rail - but if smelters in Europe stop then Europe wont be able to produce railways either!



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  • Registered Users Posts: 687 ✭✭✭Subzero3




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    You'll find a few posters who play the same role across certain debates on the site live shtateside too..

    All have a similar debate style..



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    1. Outside of some Socialists no one is calling for an end to sanctions on Russia.


    2. Fracking offers potential and if a serious effort was made in 5 to 10 years could be an industry in parts of Europe.


    Problems facing it are that the resources to develop it aren't in Europe, the profile of the shale is largely unknow, test wells and recorded data are near non existent in Europe for shale, despite having some of the best geologists in the world. Rigs for drilling are globally in short supply.


    Halliburton, the oil industry services business, are reconditioning and striping old fracking gear to sell on as it is in North America.


    So fracking has potential but that potential is largely unknown,suspected though.


    The equipment, talent and knowledge, support structures are non existent in Europe and are in chronic short supply in America.


    I've no problem with fracking but it is a long term play and may never amount to much. Lots of estimates.



  • Registered Users Posts: 732 ✭✭✭murphthesmurf


    She just can't help herself.

    Anyone who suggested that lockdowns would be used for other things was a conspiracy theoriest a few weeks ago.

    When I get home from work I want to boil the kettle, have a shower and cook my dinner. I don't want to sit around in the dark until 2am waiting to do these things when the peak demand has died off.

    How long would it take to fire up the peat power stations again in Ireland? Should never have been shut down until we were 100% sure that we could meet demand.

    Governments main job is to ensure secure energy and food for its citizens, anything else is secondary.



  • Registered Users Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin


    Nope just someone who has been alive for long time and hence seen how EU and politicians react to crises

    and doesn’t buy the false arguments made by those who are being paid by Russia (and in some cases doing it for free like right useful idiots) to make it out that the sky is falling

    there are multiple solutions available in short, medium and long term to not only deal with this but come out stronger the other side



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,805 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Couldn't they just import steel?

    The issue is not a lack of energy per se, it's the cost of the energy.

    If a certain raw material is costing more to produce wouldn't some industry down the line just import it if it's cheaper rather than paying extra?

    The energy issue is confined to the Europe. I can't imagine the car industry shutting down rather than import steel from outside the EU.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Outside of Europe, the major steel industry centres are the East coast of America, India and China.

    All a long way, all have car industries within driving distance.


    Import the whole car.


    The Aluminium industry is unlikely to open up again, that takes months to restart, it's kinda like glass furnaces if they cool it they can't be restarted.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,535 ✭✭✭✭Varik


    Aluminium is going to be a big problem, Australia is the biggest exporter of the Bauxite. The sanction on Russia means they're not exporting there which used to be a big exporter (down 33% from loss of Ukraine plants & foreign bauxite import), the EU shutting down or reducing production, and then Australia and China in a trade tiff over it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Just to add to the Shale debate, ExxonMobil drilled a few years ago across Poland, they said there was not levels recoverable to commercial justified levels. Their CEO called out companies for making wild estimations, like the one in England who drilled on 2 acres and said that they had enough predicted resources to satisfy Britain for decades and on and on.


    They did say that Germany had potential though, due to the rock structure.


    Geology is more important than politics in things like this, and he pointed out that American shale fields are geologically Ideal.


    Add in the politics, I can't see a German Socialist Chancellor doing something so damaging to Putin and Russian interests long term as develop shale, as is, it is a long term solution.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,274 ✭✭✭EOQRTL




  • Registered Users Posts: 10,377 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    i agree with what your saying on points one and two as the options however can you honestly see EU governments adopting point 2? The Green movement would start an absolute **** storm of a media campaign.

    I just can’t see the EU having the balls to adopting more fossil fuel usage eg fracking.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,321 ✭✭✭Deub


    I used to find this thread irritating but I, now, find it funny. There are very few interesting posters with a balanced view. It is either “everything is well” or “it will be soooo bad”. It is amazing how some people translates article about energy restrictions this winter to “the EU will implode”, “no food”, “thousands will die of hypothermia”. And it is the same for the other side. I hope you will all stick around on this thread until next spring.



  • Registered Users Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin


    There’s going to be a bit of soul searching and extremists will squeal

    But pragmatism will win out imho, just look at the euro crisis and it’s resolution where the “German” insistence on not helping “feckless PIIGS” lost out

    This time the choice is whether Germany/Italy/France/Spain wants to lose most of its industry or postpone the “green” ideology for a couple of decades, the alternative of going back to Putin and risking collapse of EU is not an option



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,582 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    The year is 2050 and boards posters are still predicting the collapse of the EU 'within the next 6 months'.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,036 ✭✭✭timmyntc




  • Registered Users Posts: 15,074 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    It will be interesting to see if the E.U. have actually learned anything from their past interference in the energy market.

    Their marginal pricing and taxonomy policies resulted in companies, (other than those state owned by Russia, which bizarrely with German urging they became reliant on), under-investing in fossil fuel extraction and which has added to the present crisis. Too little and far too late, they changed the taxonomy rules to include gas and nuclear, so it will be interesting to see what they will now do with the marginal pricing policy which has been making massive profits at the expense of consumers for renewable energy companies long before the present war in Ukraine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,382 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Off topic somewhat, but when I read about fracking drilling, one of the reasons for opposition is "chemicals" used during drilling.

    I have not seen any detailed explanation of what exactly these chemicals are, or how they are dangerous.



  • Registered Users Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin


    Technology that is quite mature by now and i am sure Germans have bright enough engineers that can do drilling cleanly.

    The cynic in me suspects there was a deliberate campaign funded by Kremlin with useful idiots in various green movements to smear nuclear tech and hydraulic fracturing tech in order to get Europe hooked on Russian fossil fuels.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 553 ✭✭✭BASHIR


    The cynic in me suggests that is a conspiracy theory.

    The fear is not with the drilling itself but more so how to control the fractures they put into the shale rock. This may be fine in texas and dry areas. Do this with areas that have a close water table and aquifers, then you have issues. I believe chemicals used are proprietary also. But I'm sure they would have to be disclosed to obtain a drilling license.



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