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Softening house market?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,687 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    That's fine Bass. You've already displayed many times that you don't understand basic economics. We'll leave it at that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,893 ✭✭✭deirdremf


    The government must have missed the news about all those TD landlords breaking the law ...



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,394 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    The down turn was certainly not just one sector unless you call the sector employment. If you think the only sector was construction you weren't an adult at the time. People really don't get price and quantity of sales where talking about house prices. Very Very few people bought at the peak prices hence a crash. Yet when we talk house prices that peak price is often used.

    When you say plenty of people got bargains how many are you talking about? There were not many sales and you would have to exclude thoses selling up and buying another property. Were these bargain baggers people who actually saved and waited for the right moment to pounce or just lucky? Their mortgages were also at a higher rate with no access to trackers so cost more to repay.

    It really doesn't matter because they are outweighed by the people who had all these plans to pick up a bargain and failed. They weren't just waiting from 2007 they were waiting from 2002 and earlier. So for those people the gamble was huge and didn't pay off. Many were renting all that time so any savings on house purchases was minimum when all things considered. Wait 10 years to buy by al means but don't kid yourself it isn't a gamble.

    You are correct about inflation based on house prices and deposits saved if you buy a property. The key being "if" and it also only applies to buying in Ireland and not general value of your money. That is a lot of gambling which everyone is free to do but many don't understand it is a gamble nor understand all the details to calculate if they saved money or not. As I said many people bought cars with mortgages because they heard it was cheaper than a car loan but never understood they had to pay it off as quickly as a car loan. There are people who have been paying for the car they no longer have for over a decade now. That is why these discussions are dangerous to the ill informed as they get support to take risks they don't understand.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,778 ✭✭✭monkeybutter


    it was one sector basically, obviously a lot of people associated with it, but if you weren't in it wasn't so bad, most other countries recovered fairly quickly after 2007/2008 with all the funny money printed, we were only slow because of the housing **** up

    I was a big boy at the time

    tonnes of people bought at the peak, thats how it peaked, many were on the hook for houses never delivered

    Its not a gamble if you are priced out of the market right now is it and its not just being priced out there aren't enough houses period, you literally cant buy

    People didnt access trackers but that means little when interest rates were so low and the amounts needed to be borrowed so much less and a lot didnt even know what a tracker mortage was in the first place

    the property market was more fluid than it is today, more houses sold, more houses for sale

    These people are mortage free by now.

    Rent was chape at the time because so many were buying

    Yes plenty didn't buy into the hype the first time round and were smart

    It was entirely different to today mind, as I have said



  • Registered Users Posts: 945 ✭✭✭WhiteWalls


    I know the word is that we are at Celtic tiger prices in Dublin specifically. What were prices like for your typical three bed semis in the commuter belt during the boom?

    For example are prices now the exact same as they were back at the peak of the boom in that type of property?

    Post edited by WhiteWalls on


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  • Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Ozark707



    Over 120 new listings in Dublin today on myhome. I have seen it north of 100 I don't think since I started monitoring this about 6 months ago. The average I would say is about 60. Will be interesting to see if this was a one off.



  • Registered Users Posts: 132 ✭✭AySeeDoubleYeh


    DNG bumped a couple dozen of their properties in Stillorgan/Dundrum/Sandyford today, which I've never seen happen all at once before.

    Of course, I've also no idea what - if anything - that means, so go about your business 😁



  • Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Ozark707




  • Registered Users Posts: 210 ✭✭Mr Hindley


    Bumped = took down and put up a fresh listing..? Or just sent out an email shot..?



  • Registered Users Posts: 132 ✭✭AySeeDoubleYeh


    Apologies, I wasn't clear - email shot and also 'bumped' the listings to top of the list by refreshing the ads. It was striking as they did it all at once for more than a handful of properties, which I haven't seen in several years of checking (almost) daily



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 4,994 Mod ✭✭✭✭GoldFour4


    I’ve seen that happen a good few times over the last few years with smaller agencies in Dublin. It’s quite annoying cause it makes the actual new listings not stand out on a sort.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,239 ✭✭✭Viscount Aggro


    I will be selling a house in the next few months. its 1940s built, not been occupied in last 10 years.

    Ive had a few agents looking at it, valuations vary between 500 - 625K.

    The house would need rewiring, and I dont have the money to do this.

    One agent told me, its worth 500K as it is, or 600K if you do rewiring, painting, carpets.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,646 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    We will know today what the latest interest rate hike is from the ECB.

    Most people think it will be from 0.5% - 0.75%



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    Sounds like nonsense. Most people underestimate the cost of work on a house and thus bid too much. There is no point in rewiring on it's own. The plumbing and heating need to be done simultaneously when floorboards are up and skirtings off and walls are being chased. After that the external walls need to be insulated which will probably involve new windows. After that it all needs to be re-skimmed then re-painted. 100k wouldn't cover it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    Bidx1 are already at 11 pages listed with an auction scheduled till 29th September. I have never seen it as long before and certainly not 3 weeks before the auction.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,231 ✭✭✭bullpost


    House on my estate for sale have just dropped their price by 7%. Dun Laoghaire area and usually a big demand for houses here, this is a first since the crash that this has happened afaik.



  • Registered Users Posts: 132 ✭✭AySeeDoubleYeh


    My parents got the house re-wired, painted and carpeted, as well as replacing all internal doors, recently - for far less than 100k. That was in South County Dublin.



  • Registered Users Posts: 398 ✭✭jimmybobbyschweiz


    Then we'll have more rate rises into next year, before the whole thing crashes mid-next year. The ECB are incompetent, private sector failures and purely political pawns of the respective dominant parties in the EU - there to preserve the status quo (ie the criminal wealth redistribution from young to old via the asset bubble). What this means is that they move too slowly, lack decisiveness and are not qualified to handle the job of a pan-European economic manager. They were too slow to take the foot off the QE and low interest rate gas pedal and are now too slow to react to official inflation - the economies under their control have turned already while they are now in the throes of a huge policy mistake of raising rates to fight yesterday's demon.

    The QE tap needs be turned back on but redirected to more sustainable ventures like SMEs and a green economy. However, the ECB is most likely going to keep raising rates through this dark winter that is coming and forcibly crash the eurozone. Then of course they'll blame Russia, COVID, China etc. Think of it like a storm is coming - we tie down what we have and mitigate damage, that's the best we can do for the next 12-24 months until the bottom is hit and the QE pump gets going again.



  • Registered Users Posts: 132 ✭✭AySeeDoubleYeh


    Listed as Glenageary, right? Saw that and thought it was telling - not a terrible price now, given the location.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,082 ✭✭✭JohnnyChimpo


    Rewiring, painting and carpets sounds like about ~10k, depending on size of house and if you're willing to do some painting yourself. I suppose the general estate agent line is that it's worth investing in these relatively cheap refurbishments which will easily realise their value, but avoid any major renovation work which would probably not recoup in the current construction labour market.


    If you have the cash, and can get an electrician nailed down for a few days to do the rewire (along with all chasing and making good afterwards) you'd be mad not to by the sounds of it.

    Best also to see if any plumbing needs doing at the same time.


    Not sure if bank or CU would do you a loan for that kind of work, but I don't see why not



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  • Registered Users Posts: 29,445 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    the whole structure of the eu, in particular the euro, is a train wreck, raising rates will do nothing to elevate supply side lead inflation, but will make servicing debts even harder, what a train wreck! qe was always designed to support asset owners, and ta hell with everyone else, this is and will ultimately fail, we need a radically different approach, particularly for sme's and households, and as it stands, a significant rise in public borrowing is required throughout the eu, for this to occur, but this requires eu wide agreements, similar to what occurred during covid, but this may never occur!



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,805 ✭✭✭Rothmans


    Morning folks. Could anybody familiar with the Dublin market give their opinions on the following;

    I'm looking at houses in the sub 400k bracket, preferably within 5km of the city, with a minimum of two beds. A big ask, I know. From my Daft searches, I do get a somewhat reasonable hit of properties.

    However, I'm very aware of the fact that, in Dublin, houses seem to be going well above asking. But the houses coming back in my results are generally in very poor decorative order and have shocking BER ratings. I'm of the opinion of an earlier poster who said he doesn't care about the BER right now, and am just looking at somewhere to buy.


    So my question is, do these houses that I'm referring to (poor decorative order and with BERs of E, F) tend to go well over asking. To give you some context, I am linking 3 houses below. Would the asking prices of these houses be in any way reflective of the prices they sell for?


    https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-2-addison-road-fairview-fairview-dublin-3/4074957


    https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/semi-detached-house-108-herberton-road-rialto-rialto-dublin-8/4047778


    https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/semi-detached-house-7-clonliffe-gardens-drumcondra-dublin-3/4036412



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123




  • Registered Users Posts: 14,646 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    You do realise that spending more money and borrowing money to spend means MORE inflation, don't you?



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,445 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    yes, but it is truly the only way out of primarily supply side driven inflation, squeezing the money supply will just make matters much worse as less and less money circulates the economy, forcing businesses to close, and unemployment to rise, this in turn makes it far more difficult in servicing debts in both the public and private domains, baring in mind, it was primarily excess private debt that triggered the 08 crash, and by increasing unemployment, this problems will more than likely raise its head again, as it increases the likelihood of non preforming loans and defaults!

    again, our current inflationary pressures are not demand side driven, i.e. excess money, but primarily supply side driven, if both public and private sector borrowing decreases at the same time, it significantly increases the likelihood of the above occurring!



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,646 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    You are all over the place.

    In one post you give out about QE and excess money, the next post you say that excess money has nothing to do with demand side inflation?


    Tell us, if there is too much money chasing too few goods, what generally happens?

    Rising interest rates mean that the price of money goes up, which cools demand, which in turn reduces inflation.


    You have banged that drum before in other threads, and been found out, I don't want this thread to turn into another one of your soapboxes.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123



    Wanderer it cant be afforded, it just cant if we borrow more it means paying back more Ireland are small bananas when it comes to global finances we have given ourselves a status of importance due to the number of high tech and phama companies coming here for the tax deals but lets be clear we could borrow another 240Billion and if Russia, Gemany, UK and US continue on the path that those countries are already on we as a country will be no better off no matter how much we borrow Ireland is too open and exposed to other bigger countries finances than any other. If we lose 2/3 of the big companies in here Ireland is going to be in an even bigger sh1tstorm. Ireland is of no significance to these behemoths and they will do what they think is right for their country no matter what pain it inflicts on other countries. Case in point the bailout of 08 German bond holders had Irish debt but we were told we could not default on these boyos and had to pay for other peoples gamble. Now the German economy (in particular their manufacturing) is on the lamb and the whole of the EU is supposed to deal with rolling blackouts to keep these lads afloat.

    This countries money spenders have shown they are unable to do the job properly time and time again its in our faces (HSE, Housing, access to disability, transport, Infrastructure, etc, etc the list goes on and on) and giving them more money to throw on to the bonfire is the wrong way to go. If they had a proven track record of sound and steady spending I would say maybe but not when we are already 240 billion in debt or the third most indebted country per capita in the world, Ireland should not be looking for the gold medal when it comes to borrowing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,646 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    .75% it is

    I personally thought they would stick to .5% as the ECB is always cautious, so this is a bit of a surprise. They also don't rule out anymore rises.. Things may get interesting real fast



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    The Euro is being mauled out in the currency market they had to do something. I am surprised they did not go the full 1% and can see another increase in December



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  • Registered Users Posts: 30,197 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    The Drumcondra one will go for higher I expect given it has potential to improve.

    Addison Road, no parking, and it's a side street off very busy Fairview Strand which is in a heap right now with roadworks - and will be like that until next summer. That might dampen down its price.

    Don't know Rialto.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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