Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Autumn2022

Lp drifting slowly away to the E, light winds up through the atmosphere giving light amounts of shear with subtle convergence at surface level, modest cold air aloft, fair diurnal heating getting up to the high teens or 20C with maybe more in the way of longer spells of sunshine and helping to evaporate and lift some of the surface moisture that has fallen over the last few days and aiding convection and instability .

First Sounding for Boyle Co Roscommon at 14.00, Cap a bit stronger tomorrow but CAPE although skinny might have enough energy to break through, KO INDEX reading of -4 which is higher than today would indicate a fair chance of Thunderstorms and heavy showers. Hit and miss as usual but light winds brining the maturing convection to its peak in the N Midlands/ Midlands and the West later in the afternoon as having some of the best chance, but could get a thunder and lightning anywhere really. All dying away early evening as the heating declines.

Second sounding for Galway at 16.00 . Both showing modest LLS and quite light DLS but decent Lapse Rates. Probably going for slight chance again tomorrow, probably something like today getting going in the afternoon, with enough sunny breaks could produce a few decent enough slow moving thunderstorms with heavy local rain.

We will se what transpires today.

I think if you look at in conjunction with the ATD system you get a better overall view of where the thunderstorms are active, neither records all the strikes, just a fraction really at times.

Sferics recorded so far today on the ATD system from the Met Office.