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Joe Biden Presidency thread *Please read OP - Threadbanned Users Added 4/5/21*

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  • Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    This is what I think as well. Not only will Democrats keep their own Senate seats, but they’ll pick up five more in this case, and probably become a bit more competitive. I can’t see a scenario where they win in Florida and not win those other races I spoke about.

    If they win Florida then Kansas and Utah narrows up to single points, and Democrats would run away with the governors race in Kansas as well.

    I think Rubio will be made to sweat a bit but I just don’t think there’s enough time for it to flip, barring an ‘October surprise’ involving a major scandal with Rubio. Even then DeSantis would probably still win the governor race.

    I do enjoy these what-if scenarios though, no matter how unlikely they are. I worked out that if the swing the Democrats have seen in special elections since Dobbs plays out nationally, then they narrowly hold onto the House and they pick up 4 Seats in the Senate.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,292 ✭✭✭Silentcorner


    Florida is a solid red state lads, it's no longer a swing state. I'd bet my house on it! If I'm right, then what implications does that have for all the other swing states?



  • Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    Would you say Montana and West Virginia are ‘solid red’ states?



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,292 ✭✭✭Silentcorner




  • Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen




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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,292 ✭✭✭Silentcorner


    Ya...whats the problem, Florida interests me, it is also the US's ultimate swing state, the bell weather state you could almost say...there is plenty of data about that reflects my position for anyone who cares to look.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,441 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Florida is categorically not a "bellweather" in any version of the word.

    It's been a purple-ish State for the last few cycles , but results in Florida do not have any real meaning for the National result beyond the value of the Senate seat or EC votes to the total



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,292 ✭✭✭Silentcorner


    So what would you consider US's bell weather state, and how can you dismiss Florida given it's electoral record over the last two decades? Would you object if I called it a toss up state? Where winning margins tend to be in very low digits.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,445 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Ohio or Nevada. Because Ohio and Nevada are better predictors in the POTUS elections. If you remember, TFG lost Nevada and sent his goons to attack the electoral office in Nevada the night Fox called Nevada for Biden. His "people" knew this too.



    FWIW up till 1956 Missouri was like 100%, Last few decades, NV and Ohio. I remember Ohio going for Kerry early and I knew then we'd have another four of GWB.

    Graph from the above article. Darker is more likely, since 1956:




  • Registered Users Posts: 6,292 ✭✭✭Silentcorner




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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,441 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    It's been a toss-up for the last few cycles - I don't think anyone has won by more than a couple of points either way for the last 4 or 5 elections.

    But to be a Bellweather there has to be a consistent connection between winning that State and winning overall and that really isn't the case for Florida , certainly not for down-ballot results.

    For example , Rubio winning or losing isn't necessarily indicative of how the overall control of the Senate might play out



  • Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    By what you're saying, if Rubio wins the Senate race in Florida then that means the Republicans are going to have a good year. That is not the case at all and Florida is far from the ultimate bell weather.

    At Presidential level, the bell weathers tend to be Ohio and Nevada (as previously highlighted), however for mid-terms it can be a lot harder to determine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,292 ✭✭✭Silentcorner


    Ya ok I understand. These times voting patterns don't seem to mean much anyway.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,177 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    There aren’t any bell weather states, there are bell weather counties. Even then states can go completely different directions in senate elections, elections for governor and the general.

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




  • Registered Users Posts: 6,292 ✭✭✭Silentcorner


    I was referring to the Governors race, in my defense.

    It is a race to watch given it's potential impact on the 2024 race.



  • Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    Oh DeSantis should absolutely be winning that, no doubt about that in my mind.

    The margin will be interesting though. Before Dobbs he would have won it comfortably. It will be interesting to see if Dobbs has any impact on the margin of victory.



  • Registered Users Posts: 82,375 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    Republicans are beside themselves that CA’s heatwave is leading to brownout risks (like ERCOT is such a shining example of Republican utility management)




  • Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    Interesting... but I still think it's too late for it to flip.

    In other news, Obama's going out on the campaign trail which means one thing - the Democrats smell blood and they're getting their big hitters out.

    Interestingly, Obama will be campaigning for some secretary of state candidates considering how important they'll be in 2024.



  • Registered Users Posts: 82,375 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    I fully expect the right to complain about Obama campaigning, too, without a hint of irony.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,817 ✭✭✭✭y0ssar1an22


    i dont think they will TBH. they like that obama makes biden look like an after thought



  • Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    Pretty sure this talking point was thrashed out during 2020 and Biden still won.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,445 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Fine impression at the end here of Moscow Mitch, taking the GQP to task about opposing the infrastructure bill, then taking credit for infrastructure projects.




  • Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    Enjoyed that impression.

    Love this side of Biden. Still one of the best in the business at absolutely knifing his rivals and none of them ever have a meaningful comeback. It’s just bluster and distraction and faux outrage that he doesn’t want to unite the country despite trying to multiple times.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,314 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran



    The amount of flak that we were getting in Texas due to the freeze-out from more liberal folks was anything but light, and I was seeing it again a couple months ago when I was being gleefully informed by folks living in other states that Texas was expecting rolling blackouts due to excess power demand during the heat waves. Which I hadn't heard living here, and it turned out we didn't have them, despite record power consumption.

    ERCOT's failing was not that the grid failed, it was that they didn't warn people it might fail so that they could prepare. A once-in-fifty-years freeze is not worth spending the money for. The Republican idiocy was in blaming 'green energy' which was more reliable than the gas plants.

    There are no two ways that California is a more deserving ribbing target for two reasons.

    Firstly, Texas is working towards realistic generation goals. California is suddenly realising that it needs more power than it is planned to have, to the extent that last week Newsom had to expend political capitol in order to delay the shutdown of the Diablo Canyon plant for five years. There's no indication that adequate alternate power generation capability will be online in five years' time, but that won't be Newsom's problem: He'll term out in five years, and will likely be running for President. Texas is currently building a lot more generating capability than California is, even though it's got a smaller population.

    Secondly, Texas doesn't blow its own trumpet on power generation anywhere near as much, and when it does, it doesn't undermine itself to the same extent. California wants to tout itself as being the leader in being green, it'll proclaim it loudly. Face it, if you have in mind the image of the State which dedicates itself to being green, California pretty much it, and Texas the dirty, polluting oil state. Part of the reason Newsom received so much hassle for wanting to extend Diablo Canyon was that it would mean that California would delay being able to say "we are 100% renewable in California." (The gas/coal plants are scheduled to start shutting down next year). Problem is, if you look into the details, California may have no evil nuclear or fossil fuel generators.... but it currently buys a third of its electricity from states which do. Further, California may be talking the talk, but Texas is walking the walk. Texas generates more renewable energy than CA, and it currently has more under construction than California does. Ironically, the reason for this is the de-regulation in the Texas regimen. It's not state government policy to build so much more green power generation, the suppliers are choosing to do so on their own because it's cost-effective, a motivation which does not exist in the state preserved monopoly such as PG&E has in California. Which, by the way, also charges far more for electricity.

    Then you have California actively undermining itself. Promptly after Newsom announced that only electric cars will be authorised for sale after 2035, PG&E announced a power shortage and asked that folks not charge their electric cars if at all possible: The implications and irony are obvious, especially when combined with the lack of generation capability currently under construction. The reality, however, actually isn't as bad as all that, as folks will still be motoring around in their new 2035 fossil-fuel cars, so they won't be beholden to the power grid: It's hidden in the fine print, and you didn't hear any of the California politicians proudly announce it, but plug-in hybrids which have a petrol engine will still be legal for sale. However, that doesn't match with the image that Newsom et al wants to put out. Much better for his green credentials to say "we're banning everything except electric and hydrogen."

    To be clear, I view this as a Texas/California spat, more than a Republican/Democrat one. I have absolutely no idea how good or bad the power systems are in New York or New Mexico or Colorado etc. I am, however, extremely familiar with the situations in California and Texas as a homeowner in both. I am far, far happier with the state of generation in Texas than in California.

    Montana's an odd one, as their Democrats are more to the center than much of the national party. They are very happy to vote a gun-toting, god-fearing Democrat (Yes, they exist) into State office to include the Governor's mansion, but when looking at the two candidates for national office, are often finding the Republican closer to their ideals than the Democrat candidate. It may simply be also because they think a Republican will be more likely to make rural-friendly decisions than a Democrat whose base of power is the big cities.



  • Registered Users Posts: 82,375 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    disagree with the notion you don’t plan an electrical grid for a 50 year event? Electric grids themselves have been around over a century, and it seems like they are things that need to be in continuous operation and will do perhaps for centuries more. So I am a bit baffled by that notion. ERCOT gambled on short term shortcuts to grow its grid and never went back to reinforce it. They paid the price, their Senator went to Cancun.

    TLDR, the bipartisan solution will be hybrid battery vehicles. The car I bought before the 2008 fuel crisis got 18 MPG. The hybrid I got knowing the next fuel crisis was only a matter of when and how, gets 55 MPG. If this scaled out to all new passenger vehicles the effects would be very disruptive; I don’t think the oil companies will be very keen



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,445 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    No reason the Texas grid can't be connected to the national one but only use the connection in times of emergency. That's bad planning by ERCOT. But, this is a state issue.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,314 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran



    It wasn't a short-term shortcut, it was the companies choosing to place the dollars elsewhere. All that expansion in Texas (and especially renewable expansion as it's less affected by cold) is being funded out of a finite budget. They can spend X million dollars upgrading the fossil fuel power system so that it will keep running in an event barely three days long every fifty years, or they can spend it (and are spending it) building new, clean power which is going to be of more benefit to Texas for forty nine years, eleven months and three and a half weeks out of fifty years. Realistically, which is the more sensible route? They did upgrade the system to handle once-in-a-decade cold snaps after such an incident back in the 90s, mind.

    Further, it's not as if a couple of days of shortage of electricity in the cold is the end of the world, especially if you know it's coming. In the meantime, the PG&E failings result in entire towns being burned to the ground, a slightly more permanent (and costly) problem which is much more difficult for the average bloke on the street to prepare for, even with warning. And PG&E don't have the excuse that they were at least putting all the money to meeting the State's routine power needs... they're not even close to attaining that goal.

    And contrary to the original tweet, it's not as if Republicans were entirely disdainful of the trauma being impacted on the citizenry as a result.




  • Registered Users Posts: 82,375 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    I saw PG&E and all I could think of suddenly was SCEG and their $8 Bn nuclear hole in the ground.

    Yeah not totally disdainful- came after being dragged for his raking commentary



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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,314 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    Not that he was wrong with the mismanagement of California's woodland and the excess surface materials which needed to be removed. Everyone knew it, except, apparently, the politicians who said that controlled burns were too harmful for the environment (particularly air quality) and put too many procedural barriers in place for it to be done.

    It took those major fires in 2021 for the situation to start to change.

    However, that's a different issue to the failings of PG&E. The SCEG thing seems to be plain managerial incompetence.



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