Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

Options
1110111113115116321

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 7,036 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    All the energy experts say at least 5 years to get any gas. The only person who disputes that is you - what are your credentials again?

    As for your list of solutions, most are not really workable.

    Tax cuts - great. Where do we get the money from to pay for these cuts in tax take? Business supports similar to covid, hmm, because they worked so well and definitely didnt cause inflation. Diversification of suppliers is ongoing, but no matter what way you look at it, without Russian gas in the market, the price of gas is going to stay very very high. Most gas producing countries (and oil producers) cannot produce anywhere near enough to make up for the shortfall since russia is excluded from market (at least for EU it is).

    Electric cars makes the energy crisis worse - hydrogen is as of yet unworkable (no grid scale storage yet, poor round-trip efficiency from electrolysis and other storage methods, gas infrastructure cannot support pure hydrogen due to leakage etc etc). Also adding renewables to grid also compounds the issue, because for every renewable generator you need a backup, which is going to be gas turbine. Unless emissions regulation are unwound AND polish and german coal mines reopen, there really is no alternative for power backup.

    We are looking at a lost decade in Europe, due to energy insecurity and inflation or stagflation. That is the reality. No amount of fracking could save the next 5 years at least. This crisis has been building up for decades really with poor energy policy, the time to act was a decade ago. The best we can do now is plan for the 2030s.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,004 ✭✭✭✭AMKC
    Ms


    At last some good news. I hope it continues to fall to at least 60 dollars a barrel or better yet 50 dollars a barrel because then Russia will be losing money on every barrel it sells


    Why? That us good news to me. Bring it up to 5 per cent I say. Its been 11 years with no interest rates at all so it's about time it's back up. I hope it stays like that for at least 12 years.

    They were good times indeed when you could make money by having savings? I hope it at least goes back up to that or more.

    Live long and Prosper

    Peace and long life.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,560 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Have you heard them, they must live on another planet 😂😂


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,036 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    EU: We wont pay more than €x/m3 for your gas

    Gas Suppliers: OK, we wont sell to you


    Just when you think they couldnt make things worse...



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,018 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    Well all I can say is if a new fracking site was set up in Ireland, being the first of its kind and knowing the controversy that would follow, its planning licence would be governed by the EPA not the local county council. They would require extremely tight and stringent borehole testing and sampling of the local area even at green field stage so they have a control sample and estimation of ground water quality and flow directions.

    Start fracting and permanently crack the bed rock under neath and effectively create a underground karst like rock, ground water flow direction, depth would be greatly affected which alone would put it out of spec with the EPA stringent conditions, and like I said any slight contamination in this case would leave the ground water extremely exposed.

    Overall the reason I cannot see it ever going ahead here is purely down to the stringent EPA licencing in this country. There is a big difference in the permits and licencing for fracking projects in the US, purely down to them being governed by the US state that it is in and some may have lax limits and conditions.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 12,583 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    If Fracking is the answer, we're asking seriously wrong questions.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    There is nothing wrong with fracking in the correct geological structures, are they in Europe is a question that should be looked at further.


    The large exploration companies are skeptical about it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    "Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo warned that Europe needs to act immediately to address the energy crisis or risk the kind of fundamental economic shutdown that the bloc would struggle to recover from."


    He goes on to say that a weeks are enough to do lasting damage.


    Which anyone here who is self employed or in a small business knows well.


    Talk of 5 and 10 year plans are fanciful when you have people like him pointing out weeks are vital now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,036 ✭✭✭joseywhales


    Murica appears bullish almost, despite the fed. They obviously do not believe the fed. They expect the fed to reduce the level of rate hikes at least by 2023.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,560 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Aside from launching the boomerang sanctions in the first place this has got to go down as the craziest idea yet, but sounds like 10 countries are for it.

    How is Spain and Italy going to tell Algeria we will only pay x for your gas.

    What are they going to say to Norway, USA, UK & Qatar which countries depend on for Gas supply even more now ?

    It's got to be a wind up surely.

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 6,966 ✭✭✭SuperBowserWorld


    Seems like we've been polluting a lot of our water supplies. Waterford CC even putting chlorine in a river. So, we'd want to grow up and show that we can protect what is essential to life, before we'd even consider fracking.

    I think a lot of our problems are because we outsource everything and take no responsibility for ourselves as a country. We are always looking to blame someone or something.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,560 ✭✭✭brickster69


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin


    Bullshit much? It’s a price cap on Russian exports only



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,560 ✭✭✭brickster69


    What use is that going to do ? Russia has cut supply to only 9% and already said if price caps are imposed that will go also. So how is that going to lower prices ?

    If any price cap on suppliers is going to lower prices then the 91% needs capping, but then the suppliers should be told at what price they are suggesting and if they agree to it first. After all they are the sellers of the product and hold the power in this.

    There is no solution to get 27 different countries to agree to something like this except some watered down version that does very little but sounds good.

    Best idea is to ask if supply will be sent through Nordstream 2 and if so open it up. If you don't ask you don't receive and what difference does it make which pipeline it comes through.

    Yes, they will lose face and look like total idiots but it would solve a lot of immediate problems as well as saving millions of potential jobs lost.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin


    So no apologies for inventing an imaginary straw man scenario?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,560 ✭✭✭brickster69


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,805 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Gas down 47% from the peak and only 17% more than the peak in December 2021 (although that was only a quick peak and fast drop) and gas being decoupled from electricity prices should start to bring prices down. But as with life, prices are far quicker to rise than they are to fall.


    What countries are forcasting a recession? I know the UK has.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,560 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Unanimous vote needed for a cap on Russian gas and Majority for a cap on all gas from all suppliers. Not going to work is it ?


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin


    Why don’t you put your money where your mouth is and invest to take advantage of what you expect from Dear Leaders genius moves?




  • Registered Users Posts: 7,036 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Why dont you put your money where your mouth is? You bombard us with drivel about Europe will be fine and everythings great and any negative outcomes as a result of our own actions are all FUD spread by Putinbots.

    If you genuinely believe all that then why not invest in Europe? Why not buy Euros? Eurobonds? Short European gas markets? Derivatives on Euro electricity markets? If you are so sure that everything is going to be great then why not bet on it?

    Post edited by timmyntc on


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Ozark707



    ECB to start shrinking its balance sheet in October. Italian yields really ratcheting up.

    Italy’s 10-year bond yield briefly rose above 4 per cent on Friday morning, more than five times higher than a year ago. Rome’s borrowing costs are being driven up by higher ECB rates, fears about the cost of offsetting the impact of high energy prices on households and companies, and anxiety about potential political volatility after this month’s election.


    https://www.ft.com/content/e21a6515-880b-4754-9665-fb79ac24b4de



  • Registered Users Posts: 687 ✭✭✭Subzero3


    Im starting to think Darth has invested all his cash in fracking and is trying to turn people against Russia so he (and his employers, the fracking industry) can get rich. It was all a scam.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,560 ✭✭✭brickster69


    " There is no time to wait " sounds like it will take a bit more time to get agreement. Maybe just me, but it might of been a good idea in March to come up with a back up plan just in case Russia responded to the hundred's of sanctions that were imposed on them, instead of running around like headless chickens in September.

    Was a risk assessment carried out on the possible effects on the European economy and citizens lives if Russia responded with just 1 counter sanction ? If not why not, or did they just happily follow the US blindly without even thinking of the possible consequences.

    Why are people more concerned about how Russia and it's people will be affected more than their own, i could never quite understand that way of thinking, because surely leaders of countries first priority is to protect it's own people first.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,560 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Thing is with the bonds, it is ok saying you have x amount of assets on the balance sheet but no one asks what the value of those assets are worth today ?

    After all it is not the ECB's money they just manage it, so any loss is the loss for Eurozone member states central banks.

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin


    I am and making out quite well 😀 thank you very much

    absolutely beautiful day today to be a contrarian to politically motivated doom and gloom mongering

    Post edited by Darth Putin on


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,560 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Germany not willing to put price caps on the proposed gas exports from all countries because they might sell elsewhere for a higher price. Who would of thought that in a capitalist world companies would do that.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,805 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Price caps on Russian gas mean little and litte each day as the amount of Russian gas decreases day by day. The Us and Norway are larger suppliers of gas than Russia is, due to Russian 'self sanctioning'


    Trying to cap all imports of gas would be very difficult, it's a seller's market not a buyer's one. But It could lower the price as the UK and Norway etc... Can't really sell outside the European market with ease (assuming it applies to the internal market also)



  • Registered Users Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin




  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 4,573 ✭✭✭jackboy


    Well Europe will need gas from someone for at least the next 30 years while figuring out and implementing how to store renewable energy. So it’s either go with their tail between their legs to Russia or accept any price that other sellers will choose.



Advertisement