Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Thoughts and prayers for Clare Daly and Mick Wallace today

If you look at the comments under pro-Russian Youtube accounts you'll see remarks like "Just wait until Russia actually takes this seriously and mobilises in full". They basically see it as a trump card that Putin has up his sleeve that he can play that guarantees victory. When you dig a little bit deeper though it quickly becomes apparent that there are a lot of holes in this logic:

• The Russians have already used conscription in this war: in Luhansk and Donetsk every able bodied man was press-ganged into the war. Their units were some of the worst performing in the war due to their lack of training and motivation.
• While Russians in the West of the country appear to be more than happy for young men from the poorer ethnic Republics (like Chechnya, Dagestan, Tuva & Baryatia) to fight and die in Ukraine they are unlikely to be as enthusiastic to go and join the conflict themselves. This was one of the main reasons why Putin hasn't declared this as a war from the beginning.
• While Russia has potentially got huge number of men that they could call up, when you drill into the numbers they aren't as impressive. Most men with combat experience are already in Ukraine. Apart from the very brief Georgian war, in 2008, the last time Russia hasn't been involved in a major land war since the Chechan wars. Most of the veterans from that would be nearer to 50 than 30.
• The more of the security forces that are sent to Ukraine the less are available to suppress dissent in Russia.

The worst case scenario for Putin and Russia may be unfolding. Quite a few people assumed that the Rus-Ukr war could drag on for years, with minor moves going backwards and forwards in eastern Ukraine. A sudden collapse by the Russian army in the east will / would be seen as total humiliation for Putin at a minimum.

5.6

The start was very sloppy and it looked a bit unbanced - simply not up with the current standard; there was some good twist in the aerials, but the rotation simply wasn't there and lacked sufficient speed; that landing - what can one say but complete disaster; a stumble and small step and you might as well not have come, taking a knee, you should give up the sport or get a better coach, but that landing - well you might as well have landed on your head as makes no difference.

I'd like to hear something like "Putin dies after fall from Kremlin roof. Witnesses at the scene report he screamed, 'This fall is entirely my own fault'".

The problem that he has is that his presidency is linked to his life. He ain't going to ever step down and retire to the fishing boat.

If he steps down or gets moved aside, the new leader will do a job on him. Either to extradite him for war crimes or arrested for corruption. He has to win this war, he has no other option, which is the scary thing.

Ultimately though, he has created his own shitshow.

Thats not going to happen, unlike Russia we live in Democracies. No EU army or NATO army is going into Russia and rightly so. I hope to see them be defeated comprehensively in Ukraine and sanctioned into Economic oblivion but not invaded. Ukraine is for Ukrainians and in the same light Russia is for Russians.

Perhaps after 20 years of commitment to real democracy, free press, handing over war criminals to ICC, Salisbury murderers to British police, Factory bombers to Czech Police, Airforce hijackers of Ryanair flights to Irish Police, they can be slowly readmitted to the international community, but I and many people who detest the current Russian (indeed all historic Russian governments) think that all countries are sovereign, including Russia.

Just saw a bit of a Wion xi special. China's spending on internal security and mass surveilance is $193 billion, while external security spending is sometheng like $123 billion. That last isn't correct, but has the right flavour.

Not hard to guess where the best and brightest most likely are.

Good idea, we can't have people offended for the russians or those with some ruski in them, that they may know. Maybe these people were out protesting against the special military operation? (yeah right)

On another note, this forum has been as busy today as I've seen it in months. Seems to be a total rout in UA and I really hope this is the beginning of the end.

Anyone in UA, that should not be there, is fair game until they have crossed back over the border into that backwards dump they came form and I don't care what "impoverished" region they came from.