Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Again, you are not acknowledging that supply and demand are TWO of the factors. Is shifting Government/CB policy alone going to increase/decrease house prices? Only if you think that there aren’t people out there to buy houses, or that the number of houses available isn’t a consideration. These factors all play a part in the property market, which one is more important may vary at times. But no one, not you, not the three economists have a definitive answer, therefore they are just opinions rather than fact.

You are no more right than anyone else predicting boom or bust until it happens.

Wondering about changes that could bring down prices in the near future such as...

If HTB is not extended beyond 2022. Which will be announced with the budget in a couple of weeks.

Changes to the mortgage lending rules by the CBI e.g. Larger deposit requirement or the 3.5 multiple of salary is reduced.. Prudence due to cost of living. I believe the CBI carry out a review each year.

Banks lending less... My exemption was taken away a few months back due to stricter lending rules from my bank

The rising interest rates add a huge cost to a mortgage but I feel people overlook this as as they look at the monthly payments, which don't seem that significant when it is a €50-100 increase per month. But I think roughly for a couple borrowing 350k an extra 1% can add 50k to the cost of credit. Unlikely but this would be good if reflected in prices..

C’mon, an economist could write a book like that every year, eventually they would be right. The difference is that fewer saw it or expected in 2006, given what is going on at the moment, few economists are not predicting some kind of crisis. You have some predicting Armageddon, others predicting a correction in markets which may be mild and short lived, some will be door stops in future, others will be looked on as works of genius, for now, no one knows. What we all know though, is that the same conditions do not exist today because of what was learned in the last crash. So please, stop thinking that you are/she is the all seeing prophet. Property prices may well decrease as a result of local/global events, but when it does, there is no guarantee that everyone will be able to afford what they want, high income buyers will be able to buy for less, and if there is a recession, it’s the lower income earners who may well be most susceptible to job losses and downward pressure on wages. Will that make buying easier even if prices fall and interest rates rise? Of course not.

There is a limited number of exemptions every year. It's a percentage of total bank lending. It's a kind of ''use it or loose it''. When the bank have used there quota for the year ( it's based on there previous years lending if I remember correctly) then they withdraw the rest of the exemptions. Usually they are used up by mid late summer. Similar happens every year.

She says..."The idea that house prices are determined by supply and demand is an infantile view of how the market works". And then goes on to say that Ireland's high prices are due to REITS - in other words, demand. What difference do sellers care if it's a prospective homebuyer or an REIT, it's all the same demand inflating the prices.

What is the perceived benefit of having REITS competing with prospective homebuyers, it's meant to drive development and construction? Our domestic market isn't enough?

Reducing the 3.5 multiple of salary would effectively crash the housing market entirely.

ICS mortgages recently reduced their limit to 2.5 multiple of salary for residential clients which essentially ended their involvement in that part of the market.

Since the 2008 crash mortgage rules have been at the limit of what's practical, any reduction like what's outlined above would essentially leave only cash buyers capable of buying property in Ireland.

why would the limit be reduced? Do you think that The central bank thinks Irish banks are going to fail and they want to reduce the risk? Despite being one of the few countries in the world that adopted measures to mitigate the risk.

I was considering that the rules are also in place to prevent people from over borrowing. And if people are struggling to meet costs, then the lending rules might be changed.

I would guess and agree with what you suggest.. that they are unlikely to reduce them to protect banks.

Yeah and to improve the resilience of borrowers to economic shocks..

But you're right that a bank will make their own assessment

Many people will never own their own residence.

If we don't listen, we loose them,

Are we back to loosing our best and brightest like the 80's?

Who cares? So long as there's a steady supply of south american workers to fill the lowest paid jobs, and to sleep 3 to a room to pay the extortionate rents, then its all hunky dory!

Rents are only going one way unless bizarrely an anti-immigration government were to get elected, not likely

How many times do regular posters need to be reminded that immigration discussion is not allowed in this thread?