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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,805 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Nordstream was also shut last year in July. It's routine yearly maintenance so using that as an excuse why revenue fell in July 2022 compared to July 2021 is ridiculous.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones


    Electricity and energy prices are calculated by the cost of the most expensive input ie renewables, oil gas etc. If gas was removed then real prices would be a fraction of what consumers are paying. We are all paying a needless premium.

    Eu refuse to change how the cost per unit is being calculated




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,560 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Should get rid of that carbon tax for a start, even if for 6 months or so. Who get's that cash anyway ?

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,805 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    I thought the EU commission agreed to cap non-gas energy to €200 per mwh last week?



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,075 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    The E.U. are all over the place and do not have a clue how to sort problems that are very much of their own making in cohots with Germany and greens.

    They came up with their marginal pricing policy where renewables get first shot at fulfilling the generation requirements, but get paid the same rate as the most expensive fuel. Even if that most expensive fuel is only providing 1% of requirements. It hasn`t resulted in a red cent saving for consumers, just massive profits for renewable energy companies.

    Their taxonomy policy only added to the problem where it incentivised investment in renewables and disincentivised investment in any other energy source which resulted in under investment in fossil fuel R & D which is now biting as well. Too little and far too late they changed the rule on taxonomy to include gas and nuclear, but now just a few week after doing that they are again talking about capping nuclear. prices.

    They are presently like headless chickens.. Same as they were wheat, complaining about a shortage because of 20 million tons tied up in Ukraine due to Russia`s war causing a global shortage, when their own policies had contributed by their ban on some pesticides resulting in less wheat being grown in the E.U. They have been led by the nose by German and greens. Past time they woke up and smelled the coffee



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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    The dithering of the EU is really concerning.


    This was developing as a problem this time last year and especially in Agriculture, nothing done.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,075 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Well the green favored agriculture policy of organic farming that is also being pushed as part of this green agenda showed what happens when the rubber of reality hits the road of bullsh1t in Sri Lanka and they still do not seem to have learned anything.

    They have been led so far down the road by Germany`s green agenda, (one we are still following even though Germany are not), that they have painted themselves in a corner and do not know which way to turn.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,416 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    It is a bit misleading to post in Rouble. Rouble is up by about a third compared to Euro for example.

    i.e. 10m EUR of sales in 2021 would have been about 820m RUB. But 13m Eur of sales today would be about 811m RUB at official FX rates. My understanding is that the contracts are in EUR



  • Registered Users Posts: 191 ✭✭naughtyboy


    The green agenda will mean letting millions die of famine so we can maybe save millions of lives in the future.

    I have never believed the green agenda to be nothing but an anti capitalist agenda.

    Imagine telling farmers they must cut output so we can save the planet and the people, while parts of Asia and Africa starve , that's a very evil racist viewpoint.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,044 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    Food shortages will only start to manifest in spring/summer next year. By autumn and winter it will be quite serious.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,075 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    They are not even anti-capitalism. If anything pro-capitalism attempting to use laws and coercion to force people into their preferred form of capitalism, purchasing gadgets and tech they approve of that are often produced contradictory to their own supposed beliefs.

    Some of them are so batsh1t crazy they will only be happy if the Earth is wiped clean of humanity, "for the sake of the environment"

    Basically in their present form they are a cult, and if we have learned anything from history it is the devastating ideological cults can do if allowed anywhere near State policy. If anyone thinks that an exaggeration, then they need only take a look at Sri Lanka and see how green policy on agriculture is working there.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,560 ✭✭✭brickster69


    German imports of chemicals up 40% on last year as it's own companies struggle to compete and are cutting production due to high energy prices. You could not make it up honestly, they will probably start having to import cars next.

    Behind a paywall but the headline say's it all.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin


    You have been blinded by the light shining out of your dear leaders arse (why anyone in Ireland would willingly buy into Russian propaganda is a mystery no?) and incapable of seeing the bigger picture, let me point out shape of the elephant in the room.

    * Russia only has one pipeline to China and it only connects to their most remote (and expensive) fields in east Siberia, the main gas fields are 4000km to west with no pipeline connection, Sackalin fields to east is also not connected to power of Siberia pipe, these fields rely on western tech and parts due to difficult location and extreme cold which is not coming

    * That leaves LNG and here Russia is extra fecked as it’s main terminals are unusable for chunk of year due to not being at ice free ports,

    * if you take all of the LNG ships in world you would still not transport a fraction of capacity of pipelines from western Siberia to Europe

    * Ships are avoiding Russia as they can’t get insurance and there are more lucrative routes, part of new sanctions is to complete block insurance for Russia

    * China stopped all infrastructure projects in Russia so no pipelines and no ships in pipeline (ha)

    * Once parts break as seen with nordstream, infrastructure won’t be coming back online

    * the mere mention of caps allowed China to say we will only pay half instead of previous 20% discount

    * any other buyer like India obviously is gonna demand same treatment now

    * no one will sign a long contract with them as they shown incapable of being trusted

    * China does not want to become dependent like europe did and will continue make sure only fraction their energy comes from one source

    Russia is fucked, doubly so when gas prices drop, they don’t have infrastructure to pivot on scale needed to replace their main markets who will not return to them after being burned



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,172 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,018 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    Fetiliser plants completely shut off in Europe now, drought across many continents coupled with floods and alot of crop yeild will be down big time. This may manifest into next year as farmers will reduce animal numbers and will have way lower crop yeilds as there is an extreme possibility that come next march anday there may be no fertiliser to be got.

    We went and stocked up this year for next year in the event that there (A) may be none and (B) if there is it will be double the price it is today.

    Anyway I'm just giving my thoughts as a farmer and what I am hearing from fertiliser reps.

    Food price is going to absolutely spiral out of control, you would think the EU would have learned by now about being over reliant on other nasty country's to supply our essentials. Instead the Germans want to push ahead with the mercursor deal. It bewilders me they are absolutely so far removed from the ground and how produce is actually grown.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Food and agriculture is viewed as even less important than energy security and supply to European leaders and wider society.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Put your money where your mouth is. How many?

    Looking at the list, very few are at risk. Italy being the exception, but they've been that way for decades. An Italian government collapsing is call a Tuesday.

    Put it up, how many European governments will fall, and which ones?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,560 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Italy have brought in new laws for heating rationing. The country will be slit into 6 zones with different start dates and number of hours a day permitted at 19 degrees. With 2500 fine penalties, no idea how that will be policed like.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 28,939 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,560 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Both with businesses one degree lower. I would imagine it is just heating not everything.

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



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  • Looks like we have a blueprint for heating public buildings and we are going to be actually implementing it. When I worked in a public building the service had a weekly schedule of different opening hours each day, but the heating clock was set for same daily schedule to cover all dat heating. It will need the installation of new “clocks” in many locations. Also there are such things as 24 hour public libraries; wonder how this will work out if energy savings policies are being implemented.



  • Registered Users Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin


    oh Noes!

    In meantime massive relief at source on bills here this winter is being discussed



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,004 ✭✭✭✭AMKC
    Ms


    Live long and Prosper

    Peace and long life.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,274 ✭✭✭EOQRTL


    It's Darth Bertie's attempt at humour, bless him.



  • Registered Users Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin


    There is a “anything western bad” anything Russian or Chinese good contingent on this thread, it’s a false enemy of my enemy type of thinking

    they are actively drooling waiting for the collapse of the decadent west

    The far left and far right here think Russia and China are great and openly admire and speak for them (such as certain MEPs)

    In their rush to hate anything “western” they ignore that these places are exponentially worse for average person by just about every metric imaginable

    i wrote earlier that there is a rush from shithole countries to stable western assets and currencies, this means favourable currency rate and loan rates that are negative due to inflation which can be used to swat away any excrement likes of Putin throw our way



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,560 ✭✭✭brickster69


    The US warning about the implications for the global economy if oil production was to be cut. This is after pushing to set a price cap a week or so ago.

    Maybe Russia is bluffing, we will see.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,374 ✭✭✭SortingYouOut


    It seems to be the noise it makes when selectively plucking articles to paint an all is well picture. They seem unable to see the irony in their unbalanced sharing of articles when arguing about the unbalanced sharing of articles on the other side. Ignoring any response or argument shared by others to instead continue sharing good news articles with an "oh Noes!".

    I think it stems from them being unable to separate the war in Ukraine from this discussion and them considering anyone with anything at all negative to say about the economic outlook as against the cause currently ongoing in their head. 

    Beverly Hills, California



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,560 ✭✭✭brickster69


    The US releasing oil from the strategic reserves like it is going out of fashion at the moment. Seems to be doing the job in halting inflation and keeping prices down at the pump heading into the mid term elections though.

    Should be interesting to see what happens in mid October once it ends and they have to start refilling them, 8.5 million barrels last week alone.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,044 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    Only bigots and fanatics think like this. There is only black and white for people like you and whoever does not fully and unquestionably subscribe to your view is the enemy.

    Enjoy your asylum.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,851 ✭✭✭lisasimpson


    The green policy is coming back to bite big time and noone seems be shouting stop esp after what happened in Sri Lanka. Even here in Ireland green policies are ridiculous. Seem to have short memories that when the tiger crashed the food and ageicultural sector was one of the main drivers to get us out od that hold.

    Yes we need to act on climate change but we need to have alternatives in place 1st. We have a crazy situation in Ireland at the moment where if a farmer installs solar panels on their farm buildings they cannot sell any excess generated onto the national grid under current scheme available to farmers. Not as if we have too much alternatives at the moment and all that roof space on farms going to waste 🤯



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