Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

brokenangel · 08-09-2022 4:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119590614#Comment_119590614

Do you honestly think just because both FF and FG would be in opposition it wouldn't suit them compared to been in government with SF and blamed for every single thing that goes wrong?

You keep pointing at other parties as if they are in a bad position.

SF are supposed to have the majority, they have to create a government, if they can't again then they are in serious trouble because who will bother voting for them again if they have no interest in creating a government

brokenangel · 08-09-2022 4:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119590607#Comment_119590607

It's called cross border communications. Maybe SF should try it instead of bickering with every party north and south of the border

You will also find FF have done podcasts etc with DUP.

FrancieBrady · 08-09-2022 4:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119590657#Comment_119590657

You missed the point.

FF in opposition with FG would not help them with their expressed existential crisis, i.e. Their identity.

At least in government implementing their part of a programme for government they have that ability...in opposition they are just hostages to fortune really.

FrancieBrady · 08-09-2022 4:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119590666#Comment_119590666

Didn't know that...where are these podcasts, would like to listen.

brokenangel · 08-09-2022 4:41pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119590695#Comment_119590695

I didn't miss anything. If parties want to see how SF are in government just look at the North, it's everyone elses fault. Just look at the reaction to them failing to bring a government together, it was everyone else's fault. Starting to see a trend? AS I said IMO FF would be crazy to go into government with them and the FF supporters don't want to go into government with them. So that's the starting point.

Based on the interview today I think poor old SF might be losing some voters

"It doesn't add up"

FrancieBrady · 08-09-2022 4:44pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119590780#Comment_119590780

That's your opinion of SF. Not the topic.

Sleepy · 08-09-2022 5:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119590614#Comment_119590614

On your last point we're in agreement. I think it's your desire to see your party in government that's making you view a SF / FF coalition as their best option though. Fianna Fail isn't so much a party of ideology as they are one with a desire for power and getting as many of their supporters snouts in the trough as possible.

Being a part of a SF lead government won't help with that and will cost them floating voters. Being in opposition to a SF lead government gives them the opportunity to win back some of the populist votes they've lost as SF fail to be all things to all those who've rowed in over the past few years.

For all the disdain I hold Fianna Fail in, I'll give them one thing: they're excellent politicians. They know how to manage a vote, how to hang the right person out to dry and if I can see a FF/SF coalition as a huge tactical blunder for the survival of the party, I'm pretty sure those in charge of FF can see it too.

FrancieBrady · 08-09-2022 5:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119590970#Comment_119590970

I strongly disagree TBH.

Being in opposition will ally them with FG again.

I am not getting into 'snouts in troughs' and all that stuff.

Politically, there is a desire in FF to forge a new identity (whether you think that identity is bogus or not is not really the issue).

It's much harder to do that in opposition riding shotgun.

Much more attractive to do it in power having their items on the PFG implemented. Isn't that what some here will claim for the Greens?

brokenangel · 08-09-2022 5:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119591053#Comment_119591053

"The best opposition ever"

You spent many many days tell everyone how great it was for SF to be in opposition and they would hold the government accountable and win voters.

Now you are flip flopping to make the suggestion that FF in opposition would be worthless

FF will totally lose their core voters if they jump in with SF. If the leadership of FF don't understand that then they deserve to close the party down now. The hard core voters of FF don't want to join SF. That's the end of the story.

FrancieBrady · 08-09-2022 5:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119591126#Comment_119591126

Read the post again.

You got it wrong again.

brokenangel · 08-09-2022 5:53pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119591179#Comment_119591179

No I am 100% right

We have a SF supporter trying to tell everyone that FF would be best to join them in government

This is after FF said no chance in last election and if you know any FF supporters they will say they want nothing to do with SF.

But please don't stop me. Carry on.

FrancieBrady · 08-09-2022 6:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119591235#Comment_119591235

Here is what I said:

Politically, there is a desire in FF to forge a new identity (whether you think that identity is bogus or not is not really the issue).

It's much harder to do that in opposition riding shotgun.

Much more attractive to do it in power having their items on the PFG implemented. Isn't that what some here will claim for the Greens?

Now, it most certainly is said anytime there is criticism of the Greens that they are better in government implementing policy than out of it.

Same applies to FF unless a flip flop is engaged.

There is no criticism of FF in what I said, just an opinion on what seems to me, common sense.

P.S. I know many FF members and councillors and I have heard none of them say what you claim. Zero.

blanch152 · 09-09-2022 11:46am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119591053#Comment_119591053

Ah come on, you are really struggling with this stuff. The idea of FF going into government as a junior partner to SF being the best thing for them is laughable stuff.

Being in opposition and adopting a different tack to FG is the best chance of forging a new identity. Look at Bacik, she is intent at the moment on putting as much distance between Labour and SF as she is in putting distance between Labour and the government parties. At the end of the day, she makes Labour an option for all in coalition, just at a high price.

But if going into government is the best thing for FF, and helps in getting a new identity, then aren't they doing the right thing already? And shouldn't they continue with the same partners?

Your logic always collapses in on itself sooner or later.

FrancieBrady · 09-09-2022 12:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119594730#Comment_119594730

In opposition they will struggle to find a unique voice, better to be implementing FF policy in a government IMO.

FF's problem is not distinguishing themselves from SF or Labour etc, it is distinguishing themselves from FG that is the prominent theme from backbenchers and some senior figures. A problem of their own making and only solvable by FF themselves.

FG rehabilitated them, are they brave enough now to re-establish a distinct identity?

Sleepy · 09-09-2022 1:03pm

I suppose the key difference in opinion here is going to be whether or not you believe a SF/FF coalition would be a stable government and one that will manage to achieve enough of their electoral promises not to totally alienate those who've voted for them.

Personally, I don't think it's possible for ANY government to achieve anything close to what Sinn Fein have sold those currently supporting them (hence the commonly repeated "magic money tree" accusation from their opponents) so they'll be seen as under-delivering even if they surprised those opponents and delivered on a quarter of their promises.

Whoever is to be FF leader in this arrangement would have a tough time holding their own party together as a junior partner - not a lot of cabinet seats to go around when you're the junior and "favours for favours" is about the only consistent policy Fianna Fail have held to over their lifetime... And that's before you even get into the difficulty of maintaining the coalition itself as Sinn Fein inevitably try to pass the blame for their failures and mistakes onto the junior partner.

If you foresee a successful government stemming from this coalition, it makes it a more appealing prospect for FF (hence the SF supporters seeing it as FF's best option). If you think it'll be a complete clusterfuck, you're going to see it as political suicide for FF to even contemplate.

FrancieBrady · 09-09-2022 1:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119595113#Comment_119595113

It's all just opinions at this stage.

FF are pragmatists, so I see them opting for the scenario that gives them a measure of prestige and control. Power over sitting in opposition for a FFer? I think I know them well enough, to know what way they will jump.

ELM327 · 12-09-2022 12:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119595189#Comment_119595189

FF as a junior government partner to SF is a non starter. FF demanded and got parity with FG to go into government with them. That was a seismic change but going in with SF would be unthinkable. Especially as a junior party. If FF are not in with FG after the next election, a spell in opposition to re-differentiate them from FG would be the most likely outcome. In reality I think we're looking at a renewal of the current government. SF to win the most seats but fall well short of a mark where founding a government is even possible.

Larbre34 · 12-09-2022 2:30pm

FF would rather lead the opposition than enter Government as a junior partner, to anyone. So would FG and thats why their great aim now is to simply beat FF for seats and take the seats marking any SF led Government.

I was talking to a senior Labour strategist recently, their priority is to increase seats and consolidate, probably also amalgamate with the Soc Dems, as it is understood neither Catherine Murphy nor Roisin Shorthall will stand again in 2025, both being well over 70 by that time.

There will be anything up to 179 seats in the next Dáil, though more likely 175. Does anyone truly believe that the transfer averse Sinn Féin can achieve anything near 87 seats on 35%.

They may well get first dibs on forming a Government post-election, but once again, I don't think they will succeed.

Brucie Bonus · 12-09-2022 4:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119607788#Comment_119607788

Labour strategist? I hope he's brand new. The days of Labour absorbing another party are long over. They are an alledged left party who were more FG than FG when last in power. All they have is a few deluded hanger-ons and some transfers.

The only two likely possibilities are same scenario again, likely with an even weaker FG, which I think many in FF won't want, especially if MM retires. The other is a coalition between SF and FF with a rotating Taoiseach.

SD and PBP are unlikely to stun.

blanch152 · 12-09-2022 5:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119606991#Comment_119606991

You are talking sense here. There are only one or two posters pushing the fanciful idea of a SF-led government with FF as junior partner. That just isn't going to happen as it would be political suicide for FF.

The only possibility is SF and FF as equal partners, rotating Taoiseach, equal Ministries, SF kept away from foreign policy and security, and FF to have first go as Taoiseach. FG would otherwise make hay at FF being SF's lapdog.

A period in opposition to distinguish themselves from FG could work. FG will take the side of lower taxes for workers, FF the populist side of all things to all men.

Podge_irl · 12-09-2022 5:22pm

If SF and FF go into power together with a rotating Taoiseach, you can almost guarantee that SF being first up at Taoiseach is completely non-negotiable. They will almost definitely be the larger party and any other arrangement would be ridiculous.

FrancieBrady · 12-09-2022 5:32pm

If politics is truly realigning here there will be two major parties emerging. FF will have to take on FG to survive and they can't do that offering the same thing in opposition. Both of them are sinking being together as we can see.

I'm not sure they have the strategic nous to see it but I suspect some in the party do. If they win the day, in coalition implementing their policies while FG attack them from opposition is the place to be. Fortune favours the brave, as they say.

blanch152 · 12-09-2022 5:33pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119608734#Comment_119608734

It won't happen then. FF won't trust SF enough not to pull the plug after 2 years.

The problem SF have is that they have spent so long castigating everyone else both publicly and privately that not a single other party trust them*.

*Unless you count the PBP, but you can hardly tell from week to week who is still in that party and what name they are called.

Podge_irl · 12-09-2022 5:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119608780#Comment_119608780

There we will just have to agree to disagree. SF-FF remains by far the most likely outcome following the next election to me, and I can definitely see it happening. All the more so if they end as the 3rd largest party. Second opposition party or govt party is not a hard choice.

blanch152 · 12-09-2022 5:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119608785#Comment_119608785

Junior partner to SF is political suicide.

Podge_irl · 12-09-2022 6:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119608821#Comment_119608821

If they are the smaller party in opposition they are already facing political death. There are certainly murmurings within the party already about it as an option.

Of course this is all leaving SF's future to the whims of another party, which is something they should be concerned about.

12-09-2022 9:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119608785#Comment_119608785

It would be a marriage of discontent,as roughly 1/3 of FF TDs would be deathly opposed to it

1/3 would be for it,and other third will simply follow it's leadership......if SF pull circa 70 seats as likely possible on present figures,it leaves em about 18 short,assuming FF pull circa 25,it's doable,but leaves with a paperthin margin....a rainbow coalition would be most likely,with several buy-outs on local issues

Whomever has most political skill,would put together a government....but a string of left leaning/SF family type independent TDs (ala Thomas Pringle) being elected can't be ruled out either.....the figures are too finely balanced (unless both FF and FG become totally toxic on transfers),and noone knows exactly what the constituency will beincreases/boundary changes will be

I think it's impossible to call,but an opposition party holding 70 TDs would make governing near impossible I'd feel,and potentially breed resentment in general population

Podge_irl · 12-09-2022 10:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119609769#Comment_119609769

I think it's impossible to call,but an opposition party holding 70 TDs would make governing near impossible I'd feel,and potentially breed resentment in general population

I don't think they are going to get 70 seats, but do think they will be comfortably the largest party and agree with the sentiment. It is one thing to say they are not entitled to a government (which is true), but an opposition party with a significantly larger representation than any govt party would be a new dynamic and potentially an unstable one.

blanch152 · 13-09-2022 8:57am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119610098#Comment_119610098

The 1994 FG/Labour/Democratic Left government had an opposition party with 65 seats in FF. It is not unprecedented.

Brucie Bonus · 13-09-2022 5:40pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119608702#Comment_119608702

I agree with the equal partnership, but regarding;

SF kept away from foreign policy and security,

I think you are completely off the wall. Is the fear the minister for justice will mislead the Dail or the Garda be used for political purposes like accosting a blogger at the airport for being critical of government? Or they might pass confidential government documents to their friends or push for legislation that enrich themselves or try commemorate unpopular figures or organisations or pull a stroke for a foreign president? Its not more likely with SF than what we've already gotten from others. As with FF/FG if any future SF minister is going to look after his own interests they need only continue to let Moriarty gather dust and leave all the toothless regulations and suggestions currently insitu but I think a benefit of the doubt should be given first.

Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

Comments