Softening house market?

Not all recessions are the same. In general through history we've had one every 7-10 years so we were overdue. We all hear about the 2009 recession but many others were very different, and its very rare to see the mass reduction in house prices like we saw in 2009.

In particular we've never gone into a recession with unemployment so low, so while people are still getting salaries which are unaffected or rising with inflation, it's hard to see house prices reducing (although I definitely hope the rate of growth slows significantly).

It all depends on how the recession effects job numbers. The cost of mortgages is increasing so that will most likely reduce prices somewhat, however, if there aren't big job losses (particularly in "professional" jobs as they're the ones buying houses) then prices probably won't drop all that much.

Are you basing that on anything in particular or is it more a "I have a feeling" thing

By proxy they can, be limiting demand.

We have been here before and your theory has been shown to be null.

As the recession gathers pace unemployment will rise. Higher interest rates mean lower business profits and lay-offs. It will also lead to business failures. The banks in their usual pro-cyclical way will clamp down on credit. Higher interest rates also mean less tax is paid consequent on lower profits. Higher unemployment means more outlay on welfare. That will mean tax increases and a lack of confidence and credit will cause a fall in house prices. The vulture funds may also decide to pack up and go so the prop they have put uner the market will fall away.

Supply is up about 25% on last year (and continuing to rise albeit from a low level)

Well said, couldn't agree more on the QE low interest rates one trick pony, my fear is that when this recession takes hold inflation rates will still be at 5-6% annually, the central w(b)ankers will pull that card again as a liquidity crisis will hit the economy as a 3rd world debt crisis, British pound crisis, Euro crisis and an asset bubble gets popped. When this happens they will do the good old reliable and flood the place again and this is where they will start giving helicopter money as SMEs will be worst hit.

This is when we may see hyper inflation and things may become very nasty very quick.

I hope I'm wrong but as you so rightly say, all central bankers are one trick ponies and that trick has been played and isn't going to fool anyone anymore. The jig is up

Or they're seeing an interest rate rise on the horizon and want to get people into mortgages they can afford rather than not being able to access credit in 6 months.

I understand the sentiment but I can't see property prices crashing anytime soon. Maybe a 10% or 15% haircut, but if you're choosing to rent over buy for the next 3-5 years you may be out of pocket in the long run.

Feel free to prove me wrong.

I see that , I don't know why people don't see that and that makes me question myself

Mortgage rates are locked at drawdown , and not on contract or loan offer , so getting an X % rate offer (pretty sure with be X+1-2% higher ) in next 6 months . Also I am not sure if you get a mortgage and you are on edge of your income , if rates change can bank not pull back even after loan offer ?

I think Developers are just trying to squeeze our the last set of people to take the risk on their behalf . It does not really matter if market crashes or not ,it is institutions trying to move risk from thier balancesheet to yours

Even *if* the housing prices now are on a downward/flat trend asking price wise, given the volumes of new builds that will have contracts executed in the coming months based on prices struck in q4 2021 or q1 22 then the RPPI will continue to tick upwards. The existing to new stock comparison which the CSO do quarterly will be interesting.

As small anecdotal evidence, I viewed a new development (which I won't be buying in), the agents were giving the incentive to pay a deposit on the day and you'd get kitchen appliances for free - maybe builders will start offering flooring in lieu of reducing prices if they struggle to shift property.

My own opinion is prices *should* drop over the next 12 months but the state may choose to underwrite the market to house people on HAP and some of the refugees with a one off spend of the bumper corporation tax haul.

A bit of a personal anecdote here. Some family of mine have just sold a house in Dublin 4 for nearly 100k less than what houses in the area were selling for this time last year.

Outside of Dublin, I've heard of a few people who have bought houses for comfortably below the asking price. Things seem to be changing. I wonder whether the marker is beginning to shed the lockdown inflation of prices and move back to something more akin to 2019 prices. We shall see.

The state will almost certainly attempt to drive prices up, as it has done at every other opportunity, and this is where a disaster could happen. The people in charge here have proven time and time again that they (at best) simply do not care what happens to Ireland's future. I suspect that, as they have done multiple times over the last few years, they will panic, unleash a torrent of funny money, and the economy will suffer.

Hmm, maybe instead of Tiktok dancing nurses and guards, we could see dancing estate agents and auctioneers. #BuyHomesSaveLives

Very possibly. Perhaps a harsh winter will make a lot of people think twice when the state pushes its next panic-induced crisis / home-brew disaster.