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Covid vaccines - thread banned users in First Post

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  • Subscribers Posts: 41,596 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    It means you are more susceptible to infection than you would have been if you had been unvaccinated.

    ??

    where in the report does it say that thats what 'negative effectiveness' means?

    how did they measure this? how did they isolate those unvaccinated who, after 18 weeks, caught the virus, from those who had already caught it sooner but were asymptomatic?



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,982 ✭✭✭hometruths


    The vaccines are showing negative effectiveness after 18 weeks.

    this is relative to the unvaccinated.

    this is not evidence of a thriving immune system.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,982 ✭✭✭hometruths


    ok, if I am wrong tell me what your understanding is.

    shortly after 20 weeks vaccine effectiveness is measured at -20%

    what does this mean?



  • Registered Users Posts: 30,162 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    No the report and graph don't show that.

    The actual data shows different effectiveness for the vaccine at week #20 depending on when you were vaccinated. Nowhere does the text or authors state anything about negative vaccine effectiveness. That is a conclusion you have drawn from a graphical picture without understanding it.

    Your claim of impaired immune system is false and you are incapable of justifying it other than pointing at a graph when the report itself already provides proof your claim is false.

    "Both the BNT162b2 vaccine and previous infection were found to confer considerable immunity against omicron infection and protection against hospitalization and death."

    That is the conclusion of the expert authors of the report.

    Will you reply again without explanation of how the expert conclusion contradicts your claim? Pretty obvious giveaway when you do that you don't have a leg to stand on.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,982 ✭✭✭hometruths


    The graph shows negative effectiveness. That is a fact.

    if you are saying it does not, then what is the effectiveness shown against infection at 20 weeks?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 30,162 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    It shows a line going below zero at a certain point.

    You are the one claiming negative effectiveness versus unvaccinated.

    Where does the report state this or show the data for unvaccinated?

    The underlying data shows very different effectiveness for vaccination at Week #20 based on month of first dose vaccination.

    The report text states one of its limitations is that:

    Specifically, waning effects of both vaccination and previous infection may have been confounded by earlier infection and earlier vaccination in high-risk children.

    It is reasonable to propose that higher risk children are also more likely to be tested etc due to interactions with medical services and may already have had weaker immune systems. This confounding factor would explain why children who received first dose vaccination in Jan'22 at Week#20 had very different outcomes to those who were vaccinated in Nov'21.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Subscribers Posts: 41,596 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    im not saying your wrong, im asking you to show me how youve come to this definition, and im asking for you for any evidence of that definition in the study?

    if, as you claim, after 18 weeks, the vaccinated are more likely to catch the virus than the unvaccinated, then surely its easy to show the stats that reflect this.

    if these stats dont exist, then how have you come to your definition?

    i can just as easily argue the negative figure is due to the confidence interval being 95% so eventually youre guaranteed to have a negative return, regardless of actual returned statistics. Especially with a small dataset



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,982 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Fair enough, but before I get into that are we agreed that the graph does in fact show negative effectiveness and we are only debating what that actually means?

    For example the graph is showing -20% effectiveness at 20 weeks just as clearly as it is showing 15% at 16 weeks for the previously uninfected?



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,097 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    "only debating what that actually means?"

    What is the point of discussion if not to figure out what it actually means. You may as well be arguing over the name for the shades of colours that they used to draw the graph.

    As for what it means, the first point of reference for that is surely the report itself?



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,982 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I am trying to avoid another totally pointless discussion along the lines of "the graph does not show negative effectiveness, it shows a line going below zero effectiveness"

    That's just ridiculous.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭snowcat


    Unfortunately you are dealing with 2 very extreme cohorts here. One that believes in the power of the vaxx to infinitum and the anti vaxxers who dont.. There is no room for anyone in the middle. Any query is automatically assumed to be one or the other. Hence why i ignore the more extreme posters on both sides.



  • Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Are you saying the Scandinavians are some sort of master race?



  • Registered Users Posts: 93 ✭✭hometruths_real


    If you read the paper, you would know it uses Cox's regression modelling

    If you understood statistics, you would know what that meant

    In the context of science, you would know that the negative percentages in this context are used to demonstrate their findings do not crumple under negative numbers (strengthening the rationale of their findings.... if you had a magical drop or rise in the graph, their data is crap)...

    It's like a fancy version of extrapolation....

    short answer, no it doesn't mean negative effects from the vaccine



  • Registered Users Posts: 30,162 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Number of references to 'master race' in my posts = 0.

    Those are your words not mine.

    You also seem confused about which countries are Scandinavian and which ones are Baltic.

    In terms of development, similarities and connections and land borders, Sweden is grouped most closely with Finland, Norway and then Denmark.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    How does that influence COVID to a much larger extent than lockdowns and other "effective" measures?



  • Registered Users Posts: 30,162 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06




  • Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    But Sweden is one of the most urban societies in Europe!



  • Registered Users Posts: 30,162 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    With the highest number of single person households.

    Bordered by low population density countries. There were huge voluntary shifts in behaviour in 2020.

    Its approach doesnt scale and nothing you have posted shows otherwise.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,236 ✭✭✭✭King Mob


    But again man. Still no such h thing as extreme pro vaccinationists.

    No one holds the arguments you're attributing to them.


    It's not extreme to for example point out that a study you posted contradicts your claims about it.

    It is extreme to claim a study support something it doesn't then go to great lengths to avoid and ignore what the study actually says.

    You aren't in the middle man. You're an anti vaxxer.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,236 ✭✭✭✭King Mob


    If the graph really showed negative effectiveness, why is it not mentioned in the conclusion by the authors?

    You keep avoiding this point. Why?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 25,236 ✭✭✭✭King Mob


    Yea. He's not actually commented on any of the actual text of the paper. He's only harping on about one graph while ignoring the others and the context.

    I really doubt he's actually read the study.


    Most likely is that the graph was plastered all over the Twitter threads he follows or the anti vaxxer Facebook groups or whatever, and he just accepted their claims about it without question.



  • Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    So lockdowns and masks didn't work then. It could all have been achieved with voluntary behavior shifts. No need for us to have spent 40 billion. Thanks for clarifying. That was my point all along.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,988 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Your views are flanked by individuals who believe space travel is faked, who believe we are ruled by a "one world government", who believe the pandemic was "pre-planned". It's a who's who of posters regularly curtailed from posting in other threads. You are relegated to expressing these types of views on the sites conspiracy theory forum. If those aren't hints to you, I don't know what is.

    If you go to any health professional in this country, the medical advice they'll give you regarding Covid and the vaccines will generally be the same.

    These vaccines are overwhelmingly safe, over 95% of adults in this country are vaccinated. No one here can present any coherent conspiracy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,988 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Lockdowns and masks reduced the spread of the virus.

    As for the rules/laws on the issue, no matter how common sense something is there are people who will ignore it unless it's enforced. Even in countries which are considered progressive with high social responsibility, it's still an issue. This is why we still need laws regarding e.g. seat belts because there are people who are simply too stupid/ignorant/selfish to wear them voluntarily.

    Even during the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, which killed tens of millions of people, there were those who opposed masks. It doesn't matter how black/white something is, sadly people cannot be relied upon.



  • Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Lockdowns and masks reduced the spread of the virus.

    Prove it. Especially masks. And "proof" is not quoting some lab study. Proof is real world data. Having said that a Danish study showed they had no effect whatsoever. A Bangladeshi study showed some small effect. Even countries with N95 mandates didn't do any better than neighboring countries without them. And we wouldn't have had so many hospital staff with COVID either if they worked. Also all the health officials and scientists were strongly against masks at the start of the pandemic.

    All lockdowns achieved was to create an immune naive population that caused enormous spikes when they were lifted. And put enormous strain on health services, over a very short period of time, exactly what they were supposed to avoid. They pointed the curve instead of flattening it. We did it twice in Ireland. A better strategy would have been the original regionally based levels strategy, which was working well, and keeping COVID on a slow burn rather than a massive spike. But we abandoned that early on.

    Keeping the virus out like NZ managed was the only thing that worked. And then test and trace made sense. Once you had community spread test and trace was a massive waste of money.

    This is all hindsight is 20/20 stuff - but many seem to think we did fantastically well in Ireland, while the reality is we didn't considering our relatively young demographics and low population density. Sweden did better than we did adjusting for population age.

    The way almost all restrictions were quietly dropped overnight after Christmas shows this very well. Lockdowns were a tool to get people vaccinated in the end. Nothing more.

    I got vaccinated - because there was real data showing it worked to prevent serious illness. I wore a mask and stuck to my 5k because I had to by law. When I needed to visit my elderly mother I would have loved to have had the option of an antigen test to see if I was infectious, but they were "snake oil".

    Post edited by [Deleted User] on


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,485 ✭✭✭Fighting Tao


    Bloody hell. Back to square one with the masks now? I think the bottom of the barrel has been scraped through.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,236 ✭✭✭✭King Mob


    Gonna be told all the covid restrictions are permanent again in a few posts.



  • Registered Users Posts: 93 ✭✭hometruths_real


    It's also very funny that data extrapolation in a graph is being rooted as "aha science, we got you know" when in previous studies mentioned they were rebuked immediately as not being complete and giving the full picture.



  • Registered Users Posts: 30,162 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Nope not remotely. How about responding to the points made and not your own strawman.

    I said their approach doesnt scale. That their excess deaths werent even worse than their neighbours was because of the voluntary shifts. Voluntary shifts that could not be presumed to happen to the same extent elsewhere.

    And implicitly if you think voluntary shifts in behaviour can make an impact then mandatory ones must also. Checkmate.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,982 ✭✭✭hometruths


    What is the data that is being extrapolated? Is it extremely comprehensive?



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