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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,410 ✭✭✭✭markodaly




  • Registered Users Posts: 93 ✭✭hometruths_real


    great read, and something I was wondering too... considering how crap everything else has turned out to be...

    Although very secretive, if you read between the lines on some of the comments in articles from the AWE (UK) and DOE (US) you get the gist that even though they have X amount of warheads, only Y are ever available for various reasons, and would need some time to be made available.

    the American's regularly cycle their nukes in Europe, going by flight data, this was possibly done earlier in the year.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,569 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande



    The Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland) did not get themselves into that position, then again you can argue there was not much in the way of resources to steal. Much of Ukrainian culture is not dissimilar from that of Russia and they do have a shared heritage, its not the Baltic states being invaded today. One thing you will notice about thugs & muggers here in Ireland, is they pick on people they perceive as weak or vulnerable. If you are drunkenly staggering down the street, you are more vulnerable to being robbed, same if you are an old person, same if you are a woman on her own late at night, they always prey on people weaker than themselves who can't hit back.

    This is from around 2018 it is average gross monthly salaries. Ukraine is near the bottom, why is this so? It is a resource rich country with a geographically favourable position. The Russians perceived the country as weak and invaded for the resources. In a parallel universe what could the Ukranians have done differently since independence in 1991 and prevented the Russian invasion? Obviously there is not a straightforward answer to that since it involves a combination of politics, diplomacy and economics. I'll bet if they were doing better economically than Russia, that there would be little scope for exploitation by the Kremlin of malcontent with the various corrupt Kiev governments.


    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,714 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Hang on a second, nuclear bombs, especially bigger and newer ones, release massive amounts of radiation. It's not just about the initial blast (which I don't think I'd want to be too near, indoors or not). Depending on where and when the bomb is designed to explode (in the air or on the ground) it can produce varying intensities of nuclear fallout to a local area, which is the most damaging thing after the initial flash of high-frequency radiation and shockwave. That's the thing that settles on the ground, poisoning the water and the soil and starts to kill the local people who weren't killed by the initial blast, except it's a much slower and more agonising death. The city of Dresden was not made of wood and paper, but it still suffered badly enough from a concentrated bombing campaign, so I'm not entirely optimistic about what a large nuclear weapon could do to a modern city.

    Maybe a nuclear exchange wouldn't end the world immediately, but concentrated strikes in a limited geographical area would introduce an infrastructural and humanitarian crisis that no country would surely want to deal with.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,995 ✭✭✭rogber


    Because it was part of the Soviet Union. Totally different circumstances



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    It's lucky russia is so big, they can locate the BOMB at one end of the country, and the RED BUTTON at the other end.... just in case.....




  • Registered Users Posts: 18,519 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    The things are so dangerous and destructive that most nuclear powers privately know that they can never be fired in anger. They are not a realistic or credible option for any type of military conflict. The only reason two of them were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki is that the US was the only country in the world to possess them - if Japan had their own atomic bombs and the capacity to hit US cities in response, we can be pretty certain Hiroshima would never have happened.



  • Registered Users Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin


    You keep trying to paint Ukraine as corrupt and “same culture” as Russia

    Yet the last six months have shown beyond doubt which of the countries is so corrupt as to be rotten to the core.

    As for same “culture”, you don’t think that’s a bit insulting? Ukraine has clearly illustrated it does not have the culture of genocide, rape, murder, looting and prisoner abuse which the seems to be part of Russian culture (calling these Russian barbarians cultured is a bit strange no?)



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Technically I would think Ukraine could have a bomb relatively quickly. Politically I don't think they'd develop one.

    OTOH, if I were them, I would. Forgiveness is easier acquired than permission.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,098 ✭✭✭threeball


    I didn't put forward that argument. The guy who I quoted had 30yrs experience in nuclear armaments. He very much seemed to know his stuff and presented a clear and structured argument which he backed up in later posts when questioned. He's certainly right on one thing, theres no way in hell that Russia has maintained even a fraction of the nuclear weapons they claim to have. I'd wager we're more at risk of an accidental detonation of one sitting in storage than one that actually makes it off the ground. You can be sure as **** the ones the Yanks, Brits and French have work though.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,110 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I know you're getting a lot of smart remarks in response to this post but that's because people have been staying stuff like this since the beginning of this conflict and piece by piece all of these arguments have been debunked or proven to be wishful Russian thinking.

    • "...Russia is a massive, absolutely country with a hugely powerful economy..." - The first half of this is correct. The second half is not.
    • "Europeans will prostrate themselves to Putin" - No. No they won't. In fact they are doing the opposite by introducing measures for a price cap for Russian Oil
    • "Biden will do a deal" - Why in god's name would Biden do a deal? Opposing Putin is great politics for him and unlike Europe the USA had miniscule Russian hydrocarbon imports
    • "Zelensky will be hung out to dry" - No
    • "This is the way the world works and it's only a matter of time" - Since the beginning of this conflict the cynics spouting such cliches have been proven wrong again and again. The EU united. NATO actually increasing its land border with Russia. Germany altering 75 years of defence policy. European countries throwing open their borders to Ukrainian refugees.
    • "Putin will mobilise and a million more troops will pour across the border" - Maybe. Maybe not. Even if he did what kind of training would they have had? What sort of motivation would they have? What equipment would they be given? This isn't WW2 where they can just throw bodies at the Wehrmacht.

    I'm not going to bother with the rest except to point out that you're using "We" in reference to the Russians. It sounds like you've watched too much of your countries propaganda.


    Russia are losing and will lose and it's going to come as a massive shock to a lot of Russians and their supporters going by the amount of them that are still coming out with this tired nonsense. Perhaps this is the kind of shock therapy that Russia needs. Perhaps it will humble their people enough for them to take stock and demand a different path. I live in hope.


    Edit: Damn you got me. Good stuff.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,036 ✭✭✭joseywhales


    Its definitely sarcasm, I don't believe even the most ardent kremlinite would think this.



  • Registered Users Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin


    Ukraine does have homegrown Grom2 missiles that can reach Moscow

    Putin would want to think long and hard before pushing the BUTTON on the BOMB as retaliation could arrive in form of highly radioactive dirty missiles.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Yeah, I've every faith in the technical ability of Ukraine



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,098 ✭✭✭threeball


    That radiation is concentrated at the epicenter and degrades the further out you move, so sure someone 20 miles away will get a dose and get cancer in 5 or 10yrs but in the meantime he'll send everything he has back in your direction so you better have more and better. Russia obviously don't



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,574 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Latest from Kadyrov.

    He has a go at all the armchair generals on Telegram, maintains that the current army leadership are in the best place to continue with the SMO.

    Interesting that such a high up person in the Russian government feels to need to respond to criticism of the handling of the war.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,718 ✭✭✭seenitall


    No worries about any bother, I am an insomniac and killing time by reading or posting. But now I’m certainly delighted I posted those few, I like irking rude people! ;)



  • Registered Users Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin




  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Wouldn't call him high up in the Russian government,

    He keeps Chechnya quite in return he keeps his millionaire status and when putin calls and says I'm sending 10,000 young Chechen men to Ukraine to be slaughtered,

    he replies yes master



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,714 ✭✭✭✭briany


    So glad that Kadyrov could take a break from making Tik Toks where he rides in an open top jeep firing off a gold-plated Kalashnikov in the air to make this announcement.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    30-40% chance of a collapse in the Russian army, says retired Air Marshal . A former senior member of the British armed forces has said there is a 30-40% chance that Russia's armed forces could collapse and the war could be over by Christmas.

    Retired RAF Air Marshal Edward Stringer, the ex-director-general of the Defence Academy and director-general of Joint Force Development, Strategic Command, told Sky's Kay Burley he previously thought the war would go into next year, but things have changed on the ground.

    He said: "I do not see that the Russians will be able to rebuild their armed forces to be able to re-seize the initiative and retake the offensive again.

    "And so now we are into seeing how this develops on the ground and one hopes that Zelenskyy will be in a position where he can start to negotiate favourable terms and perhaps even defeat the entire Russian invasion of his country

    "Eventually all conflicts end in negotiation. One has to calibrate to what extent you have to keep channels open and to what extent you allow him (Putin) to think that he's still part of the family of nations.

    "I always thought it would go into next year. I think it is possible now, and one hates to be the person that says it will all be over by Christmas, but it is possible now that there could be a collapse in the Russian armed forces... it's a good 30-40%, and that calls into question the future of Putin, Putinism, and the West should think very strongly now about what the world looks like post-Putin."



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,063 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    Strange, maybe they're **** their pants? Read somewhere lots of faeces left all over the place by Russian military. Maybe they have a problem with their field rations and get diarrhea? Is this why they need loads of new boxers and y fronts?



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,714 ✭✭✭✭briany


    @uafásach

    A former senior member of the British armed forces has said there is a 30-40% chance that Russia's armed forces could collapse and the war could be over by Christmas.

    Where have I heard that one before?

    Anyway, if Ukraine can make big inroads in the south or Donbas (i.e. the areas the bots are now claiming Russia really wanted all along), it'd be a real sign that the Russian effort is about to fall apart. Here's hoping we get some good news on that front in the coming days and weeks.



  • Registered Users Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin


    The military aviation enthusiasts here will find this Russian video hilarious

    Apparently it’s a bridge support that nazis started to build back in ww2

    aside: the dniepr is ridiculously wide as rivers go



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,236 ✭✭✭mcmoustache


    Interestingly, Estonia derussofied their institutions after independence so there isn't the widespread corruption that we see in Russia. Ukraine didn't have the same sort of process until much later and it's still early days for them but they still suffered from similar corruption levels as Russia. Not terribly surprising when you consider that Russia could influence who was in charge back then. After all this, I can definitely see them becoming a modern, successful country once they get rid of the Russian influence. That's really Putin's biggest fear outside of ending up like Ghaddafi - another neighbour whose citizens have a standard of living that Russians can only dream of.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Ah sure someone will be along shortly to tell us ocrs have retaken land again



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,236 ✭✭✭mcmoustache


    There's a mansion in Sochi that could be used for testing purposes.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,569 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande




    Ukrainians and Russians are more alike that they are different and they do share the same heritage, it's even in the language they speak. If you want to associate brutality of armies as being culture, may I suggest that you look in the history books, there is more than enough brutality to go around, neither side has a monopoly on virtue.

    You point out there are a lot of people dead and lives destroyed. I think we can find common ground and agree the crimes you outline should not have happened in the first place. We have the benefit of hindsight we can look at how this situation developed, what mistakes were made and learn how these can be avoided in future. The war can be dragged out it won't last forever. One side can retreat, lick it's wounds and try again. We don't want a recurrence. The question I want you to try answer is how could this all have been avoided?

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin


    How could it been avoided? Really??

    By Putin not waking up on wrong side of bed on morning of 24th and deciding it be a fine morning to start largest war in Europe since WW2

    Just because Russia and Ukraine share Slavic ancestry it doesn’t give Russia the right to invade its neighbours.

    This Ukraine is not a country meme you are peddling is tiring, almost identical what was posted higher up in that video from daily insanity that is Russian talk shows.

    I think by now I have driven a t80 through the cultural/economic/geographical etc justification for this silly war which you have posted



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,278 ✭✭✭thomil


    Yes and no. Yes, the fallout can be, and has been in the case of Nagasaki and especially Hiroshima, absolutely lethal, as will the radiation flash. It is not guaranteed however that modern nuclear weapons will produce the same insane amounts of fallout that those two first bombs did. For starters, even the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs were massively different. Little Boy, the Hiroshima bomb, was a "plug" type weapon using Uranium-235 as a fuel, whose fission process, when detonated consumed less than one kilogram of the total 64 of U-235 included in the weapon, leaving the rest to produce all kinds of nasty isotopes whilst being spread about by the explosion. This greatly contributed to both the horrendous immediate after-effects of the bombing as well as to the long-lasting consequences suffered by the survivors and their descendants

    Fat Man, the weapon dropped on Nagasaki, was a far more efficient, but also experimental design, a plutonium-fueled implosion weapon, which contained far less fuel, 6.19 kilograms of Plutonium 239. It also reacted far more efficiently, with about 1 kilogram of this fuel undergoing fission during the explosion, resulting in far less "bomb debris" to decay into long-life isotopes. That is not to say that Nagasaki had it easy, the explosion was just as horrendous for the people of that city as it had been for those in Hiroshima, and one unlucky person infamously experienced both explosions. However, from the studies that I could find, it appears that, even accounting for the different geography and the fact that the Nagasaki bomb was wildly off-target, detonating over an industrial and factory district, rather than the city center, the long term aftereffects, whilst still horrible, were less severe than those recorded in Hiroshima.

    To the best of my knowledge, all modern nuclear weapons are plutonium implosion type weapons, meaning that they will not have as much fissile material to be thrown around by the explosion as Little Boy had. Furthermore, given the advancements in nuclear technology since the 1940s, it is safe to assume that the percentage of fissile material that is actually consumed in a detonation will be significantly higher than the 16% seen in Fat Man, though details on that are naturally classified. So unless someone detonates a cobalt or neutron bomb, the amount of unused fuel, and the isotopes produced from that, will be relatively limited.

    Another aspect is going to be the altitude above ground at which the bomb will be detonated. A high-altitude air burst will produce only minimal amounts of fallout, whilst a ground-level or low altitude explosion will produce tons of it. Conversely, the effect on ground targets will be more severe in a low-altitude explosion. As with so many things regarding nuclear weapons, the exact altitudes planned for by the different nuclear powers are classified, so there's no way for us to tell how much material will be thrown up by a detonation.

    In general, I noticed the complete lack of the radiation aspect in the Quora article, together with a few other inconsistencies. The author of that post overestimates the number of nuclear tests since 1945 by almost a third, with the recorded number standing at 2121 tests, of which 520 were above-ground detonations, with the vast majority of these taking place between the late 1940s and the early to mid 1960s, though some outliers, in particular the Vela Hotel incident, took place much later. And as you said, there's no mention of the intense flash of gamma radiation that is emitted immediately once fission, or fusion starts.

    So no, nuclear weapons aren't as "carefree" as that Quora post makes it seem. On the other hand, we've had several hundred above-ground nuclear explosions within a relatively short time frame in the 1950s and 1960s, some of which took place relatively close to inhabited areas, such as the Nevada test site, were some explosions were visible from Las Vegas, and the areas in question haven't devolved into some mutant-infested radioactive wasteland. So I'd say the truth is somewhere between the two extremes, though I'm definitely in the camp of "let's try to avoid these things if at all possible!"

    Good luck trying to figure me out. I haven't managed that myself yet!



This discussion has been closed.
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