Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Would they be prepared to actually join the army and fight for Crimea though? At the end of the day that's what Russia will need if and when it comes to that battle. There are only so many impoverished ethnic minorities and prisoners they can bribe to go off and fight for them. At some point they will need educated white, Christians from Moscow and St Petersburg.

When 9/11 happened the US Army got a lot more volunteer recruits from the educated middle class. They felt like their country was under attack and it was their duty to defend it in whatever way they could. I am curious to see if Russians would feel the same way about the Ukrainians rolling into Crimea.

@[Deleted User] I very much doubt there would be western support for the retaking of Crimea. There are a lot of genuine Russians there, it will be defended to the last...

Of course they are going to retake Crimea wether it by force or the Russians leave,once the Ukrainans reach Crimea they will go hell for leather to take back what's theirs.

A bunch of russian holiday maker's and retiree's won't change the outcome,

Crimea will likely face massive derussafication,once the Ukrainans arrive it's the main reason they haven't targeted the kerch bridge

Those saying that Ukraine cannot enter Crimea are ignoring that Crimea is not recognised by anyone internationally as being a legitimate part of Russia. They are viewed as illegal occupiers - therefore such an incursion would not breach Russian sovereignty (as far as the international community is concerned).

Not true at all .

There will be a fight but it won't be a full frontal assault, were not talking WW2 anymore , ukraine took thousands of kilometers from Russians and yet there was no mass civilian casualties.

The will happen in Crimea, once the Ukrainans arrive nobody is going to fight to the death against Ukraine,they Will all slink across the kerch bridge never to be allowed return to Ukraine

Well they're almost guaranteed a victory in Kherson, at some stage. That's 20,000 Russian troops who cannot be adequately resupplied and will have some tough decisions to make in the near future. Whenever that does happen that will also free up a lot of Ukrainian troops and equipment. I certainly wouldn't be pessimistic about their options.

Its believed Ukraine are operating two divisions of soldiers and equipment , which could be somewhere in the region of 50,000 men +armor, artillery and other supports and a third division been kept in reserve that's another possible 25,000 men and supports ,and the numbers of trained soldiers returning to Ukraine is increasing every few weeks .

Russia can't replace its losses and no further troops being deployed to Ukraine suggests russia isn't able to stomach the losses they are suffering at the current rate of men and vehicles

It's taken them far too long, but they are nearly getting there:

"Hungary is no longer a "full democracy" and the EU needs to do everything to bring it back into line with European values, the European Parliament said Thursday.

MEPs voted 433 in favour, 123 against, to now describe Hungary -- ruled by populist Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who maintains close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin -- "a hybrid regime of electoral autocracy" in "serious breach" of EU democratic norms." https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220915-european-parliament-says-hungary-is-no-longer-a-full-democracy

Thanks for that. Out of curiosity how did you to come to learn Russian?

For the last few page's a few posters have been discussing Crimea. A note of my own to add. Russia for a long time has been redistributing humans in ways to serve a purpose. IE thousands of Russians been moved form one area to another. Since the Soviet days this has been on going. Now, if you put a settelment off 100000 Russians next door what do you suppose the Kremlin's thinking is their. Also, you now have Russia kidnapping countless Ukrainian people mainly young people and I am gussing girls and setting them down god knows where for god knows what. They too have a reason for that. Crimea is currently Ukrainian as far as I am concerned.

If everyone respected international law and sovereign borders, military invasions would be virtually unheard of. When it comes to conflicts between nations, ability to use force and the practicalities of the situation at hand matter more, I think. At the end of the day, it's the ability to use force that gives currency to international law in the first place - these laws aren't really observed out of the goodness of nations' hearts so much as they can be enforced if needed.

So, for Ukraine to go into Crimea, it must ask first if it can be done with acceptably low risk of a military disaster, and could it hold that territory. That's the ability to use force part of upholding international law. The practicality of it is what the strategic value of Crimea is to Ukraine at this point in time and how pushing into Crimea would cause Russia to respond. We've seen that support for the war as things stand is declining within Russia. More and more public officials there are openly voicing dissent about it. If Ukraine were able to push into Crimea, it would have to decide if such a move would further collapse Putin's support or if it would give him a surge in patriotic support, enabling to prolong the conflict with sweeping conscription and so on.

And who gets to vote? People who were resident before 2014 or people resident now? If the later then you are just using democracy to facilitate colonialism.

Stalin increased the percentage of Russian speakers in Donbas in the 50s. Well, you can't just move in a bunch of people and say 'this is ours'.