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Softening house market?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 132 ✭✭AySeeDoubleYeh


    Oh I'm not suggesting otherwise - i just think the timing of the price release might lead to these houses taking longer to shift than has been the case for previous new builds in the area.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,204 ✭✭✭combat14


    Bank of Ireland to tighten home lending criteria amid rising rates

    Debt ratings firm DBRS says rising rates and living costs may lead to rise in Irish mortgage arrears


    once lending is tightened things may settle down...



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,395 ✭✭✭Shedite27


    the +2% stress test is currently only required by law for variable rates isn't it? Customers who fix for 5+ year are exempt



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,979 ✭✭✭✭Giblet


    No, they stress tested our 5 year fixed, because they care about the lifetime of the mortgage.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,475 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    But they stress test it differently. They add 2% to variable rates and see if you can afford it. Witha 5 year fixed rates the stress test at that rate. The thinking being that if you are five year into a mortgage before you see higher rates, your income will have increased and you should be able to manage any reasonable increases in Interest rates.

    Slava Ukrainii



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  • Registered Users Posts: 273 ✭✭Galwayhurl



    Yikes:

    ICS also imposed a stipulation that prospective borrowers must show that they will have €1,000 at the end of every month, after monthly living expenses and mortgage payments at current rates, to secure a new home loan, according to sources.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,397 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    ICS it seems are getting very very strict on their mortgages. Didnt they reduce their income to loan amount to x 2.5?



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,482 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    They're basically reluctant to take on any new business given the uncertainties on interest rates.

    They have no deposits to take into consideration like the large mainstream banks, so they were able to be ultra competitive when interest rates were negative. The larger banks had to use their mortgage lending to supplement the costs associated with their deposits.

    Now it's been turned on its head entirely. There are huge deposits held in Irish banks and with rising interest rates its giving the large banks some headroom in absorbing interest rate rises on their lending side.

    Have any of the larger banks increased mortgage interest rates yet other than for those on trackers? I can't find any that have - even though the ECB has now increased rates by 1.75%.

    AIB came out this week and said they'll decide whether to pass on interest rate rises in the coming weeks, but that they hoped to absorb further rate rises if possible. That's pretty extraordinary considering there is a good chance we're already half way through the entire tightening cycle if economic growth continues to slow.

    There's a lot of emphasis on interest rates in the discussion, but so far the rate rises haven't had the slightest impact on the vast majority of mortgage holders.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    The banks are no longer being charged by the ECB for deposits. The tracker rates increased automatically so the banks are losing less on them. The banks are hoping if they keep the variable rates down they can lure some tracker customers on to variable or fixed.

    Rising interest rates certainly impact all prospective mortgage holders who are the ones who might and do buy property and make the market.



  • Administrators Posts: 53,735 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    There's nothing new in this really.

    AIB have done something very similar for their mortgage customers for years.



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  • Administrators Posts: 53,735 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    ICS's lending changes is basically them saying they don't really want to give out any more mortgages, but without actually saying it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    I am guessing the others will follow BOI's move. Ultimately this will lead to less in the amounts being borrowed. As you say if they can get a number of people off trackers and onto variable that will be a win for them.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,482 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    Rising rates do impact perspective mortgage holders, but none of the large banks have increased their fixed or variable rates for perspective customers just yet.

    At some stage they will, but we are well into the tightening cycle at this stage with ECB interest rates up 1.75% yet the banks have held steady on their fixed and variable rates.

    I think broader economic uncertainties are playing a bigger role in cooling rather than just interest rates (for now). You can get the same fixed and variable interest rates now than you could six months ago with the large banks. That window is closing though.



  • Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Ozark707



    As can be seen from Australia that an increase in IR's led to an almost immediate negative impact on valuations. Is there any reason it would be different here once the banks start to pass on rises?

    “The power of rising interest rates to push down house prices has been laid bare in a new graph that shows property values fell within weeks of the first hike to hit Australia in a decade. Property values were still rising across the combined capital cities in the first months of this year, CoreLogic’s daily home value index showed, albeit at a modest pace as the pandemic property boom petered out. Sydney’s house value falls led the country, down 7.6 per cent between May and September, while Melbourne’s dropped 4.9 per cent over the same time. Brisbane, where values were still rising as other capital cities started to fall, is now showing a sharp drop in values, down 2.9 per cent over the past two months.”


    “Mortgage broker Andrew Wheatley said the calls for refinancing or renegotiating loans have become more desperate from clients over the past few months.Though many had been getting in touch before the rate rises to try and get a better deal, the messages he was receiving were becoming more urgent. ‘There’s a lot of people just getting in touch saying ‘my mortgage payments are getting out of control and I need to talk to someone,’ Wheatley said.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/why-house-prices-fell-so-fast-and-when-the-falls-could-stop-20220914-p5bhwb.html



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,475 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    I know that these were July rates but as of then Irish mortgage interest rates for new mortgage lending had fell 0.12% in 12 months.

    Along with evidence that banks have not passed on the first ECB rate increase of 0.5% and probably will not pass on the present one of 0.75%. I hinted a few weeks back that this would probably be the vase where banks might not increase the lending rate by the full amount. However a certain amount of economic geniuses could not understand how this could happen. We are probably going to see the ECB rate max out around 3% so any net increase to borrowers may be a bit with 2% in reality which what mortgage's are stress tested to.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,395 ✭✭✭Shedite27


    Heard one commentator mention this on McWilliams pocast recently. Irish banks have massive deposits, savings, hence the 0.01% interest rate - they don't need to attract more, they have plenty. So if you go for a €400k mortgage from AIB/BOI, chances are they are being financed from deposits rather than AIB/BOI borrowing from ECB. So while they'll probably increase rates somewhat, they still need to make money by offering motgages so if one bank is holding rates, the others will too.

    Our concentrated banking system helps that, other countries have far more banks, many smaller, which are reliant on borrowing elsewhere



  • Registered Users Posts: 273 ✭✭Galwayhurl


    That's not my understanding.

    Reading various brokers guides, the general rule is that c.1500 euro should be left over for living expenses after the mortgage repayment.

    E.g

    700 mortgage

    1500 living expenses

    = 2200 net pay required.


    This new ICS rule means that you need to have another 1000 euro left over on top of that.

    I.e.

    700 mortgage

    1500 living expenses

    1000 euro extra

    = 3200 net pay required.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    The banks might be advertising the rates but how many will get through the application process to drawdown? The banks are tightening lending criteria and querying valuations, finding fault with titles and generally hanging back on lending.



  • Registered Users Posts: 721 ✭✭✭drogon.


    Bet a lot of them are just waiting for the current budget to pass before they even consider increasing the rate. Assuming they did increase interest rates, they would be under additional scrutiny by the public demanding they tax their profits the same way how energy companies are under the microscope now.

    I say wait till after the new year and see if they stick to their word. Bankers ain't your friend that's for sure, one has to be naive to take them at their word!



  • Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    Our banks won't get away with this for long. Soon Revolut et al. will offer attractive saving accounts and there will be a run on the Irish banks if they don't keep up.


    Higher saving rates will mean higher mortgage rates if that's how they are funding it!



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  • Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Myhome gone through the 16k mark



  • Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Ozark707



    Indo providing a good overview of which banks are taking steps to restrict the amount they are lending. I am guessing of the major players, it is only AIB who have not announced they will impose harsher criteria.


    Borrowers are being told that even though they can borrow a certain amount based on the income limits set by the Central Bank, the impact of cost-of-living increases on disposable income are trumping this.


    Permanent TSB and Bank of Ireland have recently tightened their lending criteria. Finance Ireland has also imposed stricter net disposable income requirements.ICS Mortgages last month imposed stringent limits on its lending, and Avant Money and Finance Ireland have announced large mortgage rate hikes.


    Broker Michael Dowling said most banks and other lenders had adjusted their net disposable income allowances in the past two weeks.

    “The impact of rising costs like energy means the disposable income borrowers have after paying a mortgage has changed,” he said.


    Mortgage providers are stress-testing at different rates. Some are testing to see if borrowers can cope with rates rising to 6.5pc, with others testing if borrowers can repay if rates hit 5pc.



    https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/buyers-struggle-to-get-mortgages-as-rising-prices-limit-loan-offers-41995940.html



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,385 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Many are expecting further rate rises and might prefer to do a smaller series of larger increases together rather than having to deal with constant publicity over it,



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,475 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    They will pass on most future rise but because of there deposit base they could absorb the first rises. BOI and AIB are more profitable because of the interest rates hike as the no longer have to worry about excess saving which they had to deposit somewhere.

    Post edited by Bass Reeves on

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 76 ✭✭Burti16


    I went to a new phase launch of an housing project in Adamstown this morning and there was literally only 10 families and as far as I can see everyone was interested in the least expensive buildings that are starting from €460k. I didn't see any end terrace or bigger houses booked on the map when I was there.

    The same company had sold the show house with all furnitures and flooring at 360k last summer in the exactly same area.

    The bidding war for second hand, well-maintained houses which price range between 350k-420k is still crazy. I've been constantly outbid with a budget of 410k



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,684 ✭✭✭✭nullzero
    °°°°°


    I was at a viewing of a house in the bracket you're describing this morning, myself and the missus were the only people there, decent place not in need of much/any work depending on your own taste, last weekend we were at a similar property bumping into other people in every room.

    Had another viewing midweek where I was the only person there, agent said anything that isn't turn key is now seeing interest dry up completely since the beginning of last week.

    I'm interested to see if it's a trend that continues, it's definitely something I haven't experienced in months of viewings.

    Glazers Out!



  • Registered Users Posts: 544 ✭✭✭theboringfox


    How can you say there is nothing new in this? The article itself states BoI has not yet revealed what it is doing to tighten its criteria but it is basically imminent. It is impressive that you can state something isn't new or material before the details are even known.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,395 ✭✭✭Shedite27


    revolut will only offer high savings interest rates if they can use that money to offer mortgages which they make money from.

    If there’s more companies offering mortgages (more competition) then prices (mortgage rates) would go down.

    like I said, I don’t believe the Irish banks are financing it through deposits



  • Registered Users Posts: 129 ✭✭Balluba


    I can not understand why someone would pay 100k above the asking price for a house when we are in the middle of a cost of living crisis



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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,475 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Because they think it's worth it. As well someone else bid 95-99 above asking price as well

    Slava Ukrainii



This discussion has been closed.
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