Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

I agree that prices are not sustainable over the long term but can’t see it improving when the backlog of housing needs never gets touched due to an ever increasing population.

I wouldn’t count on a housing crash because they are not that common and the one we did see was due to exceptional circumstances. A perfect storm of over supply combined with a credit crunch none of those exist at the moment. What I do see happening once the supply issue gets sorted is a long period where price plateau…

At the current rate we would need to be building 60k a year to make any difference to price and the first sign of prices stabling will be when there are more properties to rent than required only then will renters be able to negotiate lower rent and pressure to buy reduce.

with regards SF policy there is no chance that they would be able to implement what they say and will be forced to move more to the centre unless they are willing to accept only one term in power. They make a lot of noise and give sound bites that people fall for but if you read any of there alternative budgets you can see fast that they won’t work. Just look at the number of houses they say they will deliver and look at the money allocated it works out at something stupid like 120k per house. So unless you truly believe that the can build for that price it means they will massively overshoot the budget or deliver way less.

No where did I say that the supply of housing depends on them being allowed to complete against individual buyers…what I said is they they are the source of finance for 99% of all building in Ireland as banks won’t lend any meaningful amounts to developers due to the capital costs.

There is a place for institutional investors in the housing market. At present they are the main supply of rental properties without them we would have a real housing crisis.

Should they have a monopoly absolutely not..that is where we are headed though And something needs to change but we need to be careful with any changes as it needs to be targeted and not make the housing situation worse than it already is.

You are talking nonsense. You do not have to buy something you funded and paid for. There are many reports of developers selling near completed projects to funds, which means those funds did not provide the financing and that the banks will provide funding to developers.

"A global investment company has been involved in the acquisition of a new development of 112 houses in north Dublin in order to rent them out.

Round Hill Capital is the same company which also bought most of the houses in a Maynooth, Co Kildare, housing estate." https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/investment-firms-buy-estate-of-112-new-houses-in-dublin-to-rent-out-1.4554949

"Vulture funds 'spreading their wings' and snapping up property all across the State

Investment firms are buying homes in Waterford, Cork, Limerick and Galway, the Dáil heard ...

"In 2019, six out of 10 new homes in Dublin were taken off the market and the vast majority were sold to the investment funds. Indeed, in the last four weeks, 400 houses have been snapped up by these funds,” she said.

“They are not stopping with Dublin; their plan is now to spread their wings across the State. These investment funds are now moving to Waterford, Cork, Limerick and Galway, with leading developers saying that they will be selling more than 40% of their new homes to these funds in the years ahead." https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40286690.html

"Institutional investors are now the main buyers of apartments in Dublin; they are also paying - on average - more than household purchasers." https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/2022/06/12/are-property-funds-turning-us-into-a-nation-of-renters/

"One of Ireland’s biggest housebuilders has sold a block of 90 apartments in Dublin to a German pension fund.

Glenveagh Properties announced yesterday that it sold the development at Herbert Hill in Dundrum for €55 million. A report published this week showed that investment funds had snapped up hundreds of apartments across Ireland in the first nine months of the year.

Glenveagh did not name the investor the bought the block at Herbert Hill but it is understood that the buyer is Realis, a German pension fund."

Provide some links proving that banks won't lend for large scale property development projects, except to large property funds. I have posted multiple examples disproving your assertion, but go on.

There are none so blind as those who will not see. FFS, how many more links proving you wrong do you want?

I'm not so sure that sensational government support will stop. The next budget will be giving out an extra 6 billion and that pit won't refuse it.

I suspect these are more up to date figures

Jimmy, I am not saying there won’t be a crash, history tells us that where there is boom, there is a probability of bust. But you, in both avatar guises, have been a harbinger of doom for years. How many of your predictions have been correct?

Even if there is a slow down in MNC hiring and inflation remains high, the fact that there are so few rental/properties to buy, and so many looking to rent/buy would appear to make a crash in prices unlikely any time soon. Will it happen eventually? Probably, will it happen early next year? Unlikely.

Correct me if I’m wrong but your prediction at the start of the year for 2022 was for prices to fall by more than 20% of 2021 prices and rents to fall by upto 50%

If people don’t buy they need to rent…it only shifts the demand around assuming the population stays the same and we don’t see mass emigration.

if there isn’t a sufficient supply of rental property then the rent on new builds increases due to the increase in demand this in turn attracts investors to buy more property for rental and provides a floor for house prises so we don’t see a decrease in house prices.

the main reason rates are rising is to cool inflation .. in this case mostly "energy inflation" caused by higher gas/oil prices spilling massively over into electricity, heating, transport, food

If only someone had warned them that leaving it to private sector would end in failure. Expect more schemes and plans unveiled before the end of the year to further subsidize the market.

There's probably a net extra 150k after moving here for 2022, it doesn't take a genius to work out demand isn't going to fall!

I want a bugattii, doesn't mean I can afford one

as people become unemployed or finances tighten there ability to service a mortgage to buy houses at todays price point will fall and therefore the pool of potential customers will fall