Energy infrastructure

Capt'n Midnight · 15-09-2022 12:25am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119619079#Comment_119619079

That's my argument about the true costs of nuclear too. Except construction delays there can be many years before you get any power. An oversupply of wind would mean gas needed less of the time too.

You will always need peaking plant and spinning reserve and backup for day/night and winter/summer changes in demand. With renewables there's storage and the probability of import/export of green electricity on interconnectors.

The key point is a balanced grid, one that has multiple types of sources. There is no one-size-fits all, unless you have something like oodles of hydro.

You also have to factor in the savings when gas isn't needed, like re-importing green electricity. At present the target is 80% reduction by 2030 which is an average of 10% a year and then an average of 1% a year till 2050.

When the grid can take 95% non-synchronous generators it could more or less run on wind alone during favourable weather.

We've already hit over 85% wind at one point in February ( total renewables 88.7% and we were exporting 10% too ) And we averaged 50% from wind the last 3 Februaries.

Birdnuts · 15-09-2022 2:23am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119620135#Comment_119620135

Mother of god - referencing the rare windy day this year to justify that BS says it all, as those the current output of windfarms 2nite on the grid Dashboard....

plodder · 15-09-2022 10:01am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119611491#Comment_119611491

Seems like those turbines will need at least 100m of sea depth, as opposed to the three legged floating platforms (as used in that Scottish offshore project) produced by this crowd:

https://www.principlepower.com/

Meanwhile, there are a couple of interesting articles in today's Irish Times about floating LNG terminals (FSRUs) and our kicking the LNG can down the road. It's interesting also that Germany's five new FSRU's are expected to help reduce gas futures from a peak of €345 MWh last August, to €215 this week, and €100 next year. We're lucky that some countries are able to move fast, even with a Green party in government.

Capt'n Midnight · 15-09-2022 7:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119619221#Comment_119619221

Try again. We already have close to 1x wind installed. So we'd only need another 1.5x and if it could be done onshore it would be an awful lot cheaper than offshore. Quicker too.

Floating wind farms are the most expensive way of doing wind. What they will allow is geographical separation to maximise the time wind energy is harvested across the grid. Something to consider when we've filled the cheaper and easier offshore sandbank.

Should have new farms producing energy by 2028. 5GW for now.

Breakdown of offshore wind costs, lots of areas that can be improved as the turbine itself is only a small part of the overall. Article has further breakdown and suggests where competition and commoditisation will reduce prices as volume grows.

cnocbui · 15-09-2022 8:00pm

Let me just move the goal posts over here, no one will notice.

Akrasia · 15-09-2022 8:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119610631#Comment_119610631

Which God would answer your prayer to bring misery onto your own nation?

josip · 16-09-2022 12:30pm

This Bill Gates backed 'toaster' would be suitable for Aughinish if it ever turns out to be more than just hot air.

https://newatlas.com/energy/rondo-heat-battery-brick-toaster/

But since Aughinish uses its own 160MW CHP plant, even they may not adopt the technology. Would this kind of technology have any role to play in Ireland, reducing peak demand? I can see it being very useful in a manufacturing economy, but can't see it being of much benefit to Ireland.

Markcheese · 16-09-2022 2:57pm

I'm not sure ,but I think aughinish's process uses a lot of electric current to make alumina , and their waste product is heat - they've already got a chp , so they're not unaware of the value of heat ..

That "brick toaster" and things like the sand battery use spare/cheap electricity to make hight temp heat for use later ,

What would probably suit them better is a huge wind farm and a bloody big battery, keeping their current chp as a reserve .capital heavy though .

Might well suit the dairy processing and whiskey industries though ( most of whom already use gas Chp ) .

Markcheese · 16-09-2022 3:17pm

We seem to have lots of low level waste heat in this country ( prob most countries), dairy processing,wood production data centres , cement production,office air-con, probably loads more things , electricity generation is a biggy -

problem is more waste heat is going to be made in summer higher outside temps, dairy plants tend to run more in spring summer ..and obviously not much demand to heat homes ,hospitals schools ect on summer months , (plus some are miles from anywhere )

I assume there are limited efficient ways to accumulate and store low level waste heat ? Or use it ?

Capt'n Midnight · 16-09-2022 11:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119625838#Comment_119625838

It's just a HUGE electric storage heater. The economy of scale is that you can use thicker insulation than you can on ones in apartments which have been using bricks since forever.

It's fed with electricity not waste heat.

For the sake of 18% it would be better to insulate all the homes we can.

The one working in Finland uses sand, which I'd imagine would be even cheaper than bricks.

Where something like this might be more interesting would be if it used electric heat to take the solids up to a temperature where turbines have a respectable Carnot efficiency. You could use air with oxides like most rocks, magnesium oxide or similar. Carbon coated with niobium carbide means you can use hydrogen as a working fluid at stupidly highly temperatures. And you could still use the waste heat for district heating.

Bass Reeves · 17-09-2022 12:47pm

I passed the wind farm that is above Templeglantine in Limerick this morning not one of the turbines generating electricity. I would say it's fairly similar accross a lot of windfarms. We are dependent on fossil fuels for all the talk about renewable energy

Sam Russell · 17-09-2022 4:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119630357#Comment_119630357

Yes we are dependent on fossil fuels - for now and for some time to come.

When the wind does not blow, turbines will be still - which means fossil fuels.

However, over a year, we currently average about 40% of electricity comes from renewables. Now that is 40% less fossil fuelled electricity. By 2030, that should be down to 20% generated by fossil fuels. Now we can import to bridge the windless times and export for the windy times. We know all this - it is nothing new.

It is like saying it is always raining in the west of Ireland which is not true, but it does rain a lot. In the Dublin region we have a drought, and leaky pipes. Tell us something that we do not already know.

Capt'n Midnight · 17-09-2022 5:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119630357#Comment_119630357

If you could see them it means that solar would be producing power.

Obviously solar doesn't work at night but it can displace a lot of fossil fuel.

(In yellow) the UK was producing over 7GW of solar today. It's now down to 4.15GW which is close to our demand now of 4.2GW

Current plans are for 2.5GW of solar here by 2030.

17-09-2022 5:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631229#Comment_119631229

The solar target is actually 5.5GW for 2030 now. Changed a while back

Markcheese · 17-09-2022 6:29pm

All facing south , in cloudy ,dark early in winter Ireland .We do have a wind resource , I'd rather put most of the solar investment, into more wind turbines and grid level storage.

gjim · 17-09-2022 8:28pm

We know that the capacity factor for solar PV in Ireland is low (10 or 11%) but even at that it's still slightly cheaper than wind on an LCOE basis.

Solar PV is cheap, there's plenty of space for it and ground mounted panels are less intrusive (visible, noise) than wind turbines. It also scales "down" reasonably, while smaller wind turbines are not economically viable, so it's more flexible and can be distributed more easily putting less demand on the transmission system. In addition, there are far more feasible sites for solar PV than there are for wind turbines.

Also solar is a perfect partner for grid-level battery storage - these systems are designed to cycle daily which means they compliment solar PV better than wind. And the falling prices of grid-scale batteries mean they're on the way to becoming ubiquitous.

But the biggest plus is that solar PV generation is uncorrelated with wind generation. This means it'd be worth adding to a grid currently dependent on wind even if it were more expensive on an LCOE basis. With volatile sources, the total volatility is reduced if you have a mix of uncorrelated sources. This reduction in volatility has a great deal of value.

On the other hand, going exclusively for wind means total renewable production will be more volatile and will require the use of more fossil fuels to meet demand.

Yes Ireland has a competitive advantage with wind. And I think wind will always be the most important renewable resource for Ireland but nonetheless having a big chunk of solar capacity is vital to achieving 2035 goals.

Capt'n Midnight · 17-09-2022 10:33pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631465#Comment_119631465

Solar is cheap but seasonal. And there's less wind in summer.

Throwing insulation everywhere is a way to a) reduce winter demand and b) reduce peaking as the heat doesn't need to be on all the time.

Birdnuts · 18-09-2022 1:42am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631172#Comment_119631172

Unfortunatly there is no one for one correlation with any output via wind energy and savings in fossil so such figures are rather meaningless in terms of the grid. The fact the we currently have the highest energy inflation in the EU says alot on that front as it does on our hopeless energy policies in general

gjim · 18-09-2022 9:47pm

"Unfortunatly there is no one for one correlation with any output via wind energy and savings in fossil"

Last year 28.5TWh of electricity was consumed in Ireland. In the same year, 9.5TWh of wind electricity was generated, leaving 19TWh to be supplied by other sources. If we had no wind turbines that 9.5TWh of wind electricity would certainly have been generated mostly from burning fossil fuels.

Comparing the stats for 2021 with those of 2020. 2021 had (relatively) poor year wind conditions. Wind generation fell. So what happened? Fossil fuel electricity spiked.

This is called a correlation: wind output is anti-correlated with fossil fuel generation. One rises, the other falls. This is so basic, obvious and self-evident that a primary school pupil could understand it.

Birdnuts · 19-09-2022 1:54am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119635494#Comment_119635494

Your type don't seem to get that grids with a high notional wind capacity do not work like that in the real world. Just cos you get a small part of the day a bit breezy does not significantly curtail the output of conventional baseload load and peaking plants. You need much a much more sustained daily wind regime to get a decent return on wind generated power. Again this is highlighted by grids like |Germany, Denmark etc. being heavily dependent on conventional power sources or surrounding grids to keep the lights on during peak demand times - which in turn feeds into the high costs consumers on these grids are subject too.

19-09-2022 5:22pm

The public consultation part of the Energy Security review has been launched

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/624f3-department-of-the-environment-climate-and-communications-launches-consultation-on-the-review-of-the-security-of-energy-supply-for-irelands-gas-and-electricity-systems/

The public consultation is at the link below. Includes several attachments on that page

https://www.gov.ie/en/consultation/dbe14-review-of-the-security-of-energy-supply-of-irelands-electricity-and-natural-gas-systems/

C&P of the govt release below

The Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications is carrying out a review of the energy security of Ireland's gas and electricity systems, which is focused on the period to 2030, but in the context of a sustainable transition to net zero emissions by 2050. As part of this review, the department is launching a consultation today (Monday) to seek views from interested parties.

This security of energy supply review considers potential risks to both our natural gas and electricity supplies and examines a range of measures to mitigate these risks, including the need for additional capacity to import energy, to reduce energy use, energy storage, fuel diversification and renewable gases (such as biomethane and hydrogen). This review does not seek to address the expected tight margins in electricity supply over the coming winters; these are being addressed through a programme of actions being undertaken by the CRU (Commission for Regulation of Utilities), with the support of EirGrid; the Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications; and industry.

The consultation document sets out the demand and supply-side risks that can have an impact on the security of energy supply for Ireland’s electricity and gas systems, such as weather events, significant increases in demand, disruption to gas imports and geopolitical risks. A short list of mitigation options for both gas and electricity that could address potential security of supply gaps in the future are set out below. All of these mitigation options were modelled under a number of shock scenarios to understand the impact of each mitigation option and the level of security of supply that they can provide. The consultation document is accompanied by technical analysis to support the review process.

The list of mitigation options, which are subject to further analysis, are as follows:

strategic gas storage — gas storage that would only operate during periods in which there is a material risk of demand disruptions in Ireland
strategic floating LNG — a floating LNG facility that would only operate during periods of a material risk of demand disruption in Ireland
gas package — a combination of strategic storage, renewable gas (biomethane injection and hydrogen) and demand side response
additional electricity interconnection — another 700MW interconnector to France in addition to the Celtic Interconnector
additional pumped storage — an additional 360MW of pumped storage hydroelectricity capacity
biomass plant — a 450MW dedicated biomass plant
secondary fuel — increased secondary fuel storage beyond the current five-day storage requirement
hydrogen plant conversion — converting a CCGT (combined cycle gas turbine) to hydrogen
electricity package — a combination of additional capacity of batteries and demand side response

Commenting on the launch of the consultation, the Minister for the Environment, Climate and Communications, Eamon Ryan, said:

"The independent review carried out by CEPA stress tests our electricity and gas energy systems to identify risks, and to provide a range of evidence-based options to address potential security of supply gaps. The analysis is undertaken in the context of major change in the Irish energy market, including a substantial increase in electricity generated from renewable sources, the phasing out of traditional fossil fuels in energy generation and electrification of heat and transport.

"As we transition to a net-zero emissions future, we must ensure that our pathway of decarbonisation is underpinned by both affordability and, critically, security in how we access and use energy at all times, including times when there might be demand risk or disruption. It is essential that we have reliable sources of energy, including adequate gas and electricity storage, so that consumer and business confidence in our economy and in our energy infrastructure remains strong. I am asking for all interested parties to review this consultation document and technical analysis and provide us their views and evidence."

The public consultation and all relevant documents are available online. The consultation period runs until 28 October, following which the responses will be reviewed. A set of recommendations will be brought to Government for consideration once the review has been completed.

plodder · 19-09-2022 10:38pm

Just glanced over the non technical report but it's notable how the fixed LNG terminal mitigation was ruled out for political reasons (the risk of reliable and cheap but fracked gas being imported) Yet the list of actual shortlisted mitigations for electricity generation includes the likes of extra secondary fuel storage (diesel, or fuel oil?) and new hydro pumped storage (no sites identified, and not ideal in terms of mitigating supply shocks). And batteries! ... Looks like real wing and a prayer stuff.

19-09-2022 10:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119639657#Comment_119639657

In fairness, they have to look at all options, they would be remiss if they didn't.

Table 6 had a full breakdown, including the feasibility of each and potential timeframe.

If we get any of the options before 2025 it'll be a miracle

bk · 20-09-2022 3:26pm

"Just glanced over the non technical report but it's notable how the fixed LNG terminal mitigation was ruled out for political reasons (the risk of reliable and cheap but fracked gas being imported)"

Well there is currently nothing cheap about gas, fracked or otherwise. And even in normal times fracked gas is actually a lot more expensive then traditionally drilled gas and if it needs to be imported by LNG it becomes more expensive again.

In other words, fracked LNG is by far the most expensive type of gas, while on the other end drilled and piped gas is the cheapest. After all that is why mainland Europe was so addicted to Russian gas, it is drilled and piped, making it by far the cheapest form of gas, much cheaper then US fracked LNG.

Of course the above is all out the window at the moment, due to the war and demand now outstripping supply, the cost of all types of gas is now way higher then the normal drilled versus fracked and pipped versus LNG.

However futures prices for gas are already starting to moderate and pricing for Summer 2024 looks like it will return to some normality.

The understandable concern that the government has is that a fixed commercial LNG terminal would take years to build and just around when complete, we would actually be aiming to start weaning ourselves off gas, which could lead to us being left with a very expensive stranded asset. Also fixed terminals are much more expensive then floating terminals.

Gas Networks Ireland have an interesting proposal for an onshore liquefied gas storage facility, which would take gas from Corrib/Moffat and liquefy it for storage. They also mention the option of building such a facility by a port, so that it could relatively easily be used as an LNG import terminal if needed in a emergency. They also suggest it could be used for Hydrogen storage in future. A very interesting option IMO.

BTW in case people don't know, non of these solutions will do anything to help with our high energy costs this winter. Even if we already had an LNG facility, it would make little difference to our energy cost. It really wouldn't make much difference if an LNG ships lands in a terminal here or if it stops in a terminal in the UK and then the gas gets piped here via Moffat.

20-09-2022 4:27pm

The 200MW emergency plant for North wall is delayed, won't be operational until end of next year

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/0919/1324269-temporary-esb-plant-wont-be-ready-until-end-of-2023/

20-09-2022 4:31pm

Shannon LNG is dead in the water, according to FoIE

https://www.irishtimes.com/environment/climate-crisis/2022/09/19/friends-of-the-earth-hails-energy-security-review-as-death-knell-of-shannon-lng/

FoE head of policy Jerry MacEvilly said: “This expert report provides a clear signal that Government is starting to finally recognise the real dangers of Ireland’s overdependence on fossil fuels, as well as the risks of locking Ireland into polluting gas if long-term infrastructure is allowed.

“The technical analysis correctly rejects risky commercial fossil fuel projects, including Shannon LNG. We now call on the Government to make the existing moratorium on commercial LNG permanent in light of this analysis,” he added.

plodder · 20-09-2022 6:04pm

Production and distribution costs for LNG are higher than for gas piped directly from a gas field. But, the market prices are way above production costs (hence the windfall profits). The report also suggested that even with LNG imports only used in an emergency shock situation it would be beneficial for Europe as a whole and possibly reduce gas prices here.

The physical impact of developing an LNG terminal in Ireland is likely to be dispersed throughout the European gas system. Additional LNG imports to Ireland during a Russian supply shock would likely result in reduced pipeline imports to Ireland from GB. This would occur because:

• LNG imports to Ireland may result in a lower gas price in Ireland relative to other European markets. As such, flows of gas may be redirected away from Ireland and towards other European markets who would be willing to pay more for exports of gas from GB to avoid the potential for demand disruption.

• Cooperation agreements with the EU and/or the UK (potentially including agreements to mitigate the impact of disruption to Russian gas imports) may require Ireland to share any benefits associated with access to global LNG markets.22 In practice, this would amount to a requirement on Ireland to reduce its pipeline imports of gas from GB as scare supplies of gas are shared between affected countries.

Apogee · 20-09-2022 6:40pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119638502#Comment_119638502

A lot of the information in that report seems to have been sourced from SEAI/GNI/Eirgrid and a share of it has been posted on this thread already. This prediction of future electricity demand is striking:

IT reporting planning application for a 293MW peaking plant submitted for Finglas:

Plans have been lodged for a 293MW gas turbine power plant at Kilshane, Finglas in north Dublin as part of a backup plan aimed at avoiding potential power cuts. Kilshane Energy Ltd lodged the plans with Fingal County Council for the so-called flexible peaking plant at Kilshane Rd, Kilshane.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2022/09/20/plans-submitted-for-new-power-plant-in-finglas/

Bass Reeves · 20-09-2022 8:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119643096#Comment_119643096

Don't worry those wind turbines that you pass that are not turning will supply our electricity needs

gjim · 21-09-2022 8:50am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119643557#Comment_119643557

Could you take this sniping to After Hours or somewhere like that?

You might imagine that you've stumbled upon some amazing insight that has eluded the entire global energy sector and that you're somehow smarter than everyone in the room as a result, but everyone here already knew wind to be an intermittent generation source.

Energy infrastructure

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