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2020 officially saw a record number of $1 billion weather and climate disasters.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    It is remarkable that people can show up with an Arctic sea ice extent graph without recognising it as a function of the daily and orbital motions of the Earth and specifically two surface rotations acting in combination.


    It is coming close to the one and only sunrise at the South pole so that the circumference where the Sun remains out of view is almost disappearing while, at the North pole, the Sun is tracking from left to right close to the horizon as the polar latitude is about to turn into the dark hemisphere for the next 6 months. ( At the South pole the Sun tracks from right to left)-

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPshCulaJHU

    In the absence of daily rotation and all its effects, the entire surface of the planet turns 360 degrees over the course of an orbital circuit and turns parallel to the orbital plane, The North/South poles are a signature of that surface rotation to the Sun as a function of the orbital motion of the Earth is what creates that graph of sea ice extent or the warming bands of the hurricane season North of the Equator among others things.

    It may be that this forum is designed around those who live for extreme weather events, but one and only sunrise at a specific location is an extreme event, at least within the interpretative faculties as it happens only once a year at both poles.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    It is coming close to the one and only sunrise at the South Pole

    I’ll bite…

    Wrong. “One and only” implies it has never happened before nor will it ever happen again. It might not happen next year but is almost certain it will. It did however happen last year, thus invalidating your comment.



  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    The main hurdle is that so many lack the sense of occasion, so reasonable people would have known there is only one sunrise every year at the North and South poles, one sunset on the opposite Equinox and one noon on the June/December Solstice. As the South pole turns into the light hemisphere for the next 6 months, there is no time when the Sun remains out of sight with an expanding circumference with the pole at its centre where constant Sun/daylight exists-

    I doubt very much that anyone will even open the link to the South pole webcam to see the Sun almost emerging for the first time in 6 months as it is much better to go the negative route for those with little interest in weather/climate as fundamentally an interpretative exercise as opposed to a predictive one.

    Arctic sea ice extent follows the expansion of that daylight/darkness circumference as a reflection of the two surface rotations in combination causing it.

    Nobody is going to offer an alternative explanation because nothing else works.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    No one is arguing to the counter. Discussion in here regardless of what side agree that the motion of the planet affects weather, typically manifested in seasonal change.


    The discussion in here is how much if any impact C02 has on our climate and weather.



  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    " No one is arguing to the counter. Discussion in here regardless of what side agree that the motion of the planet affects weather, typically manifested in seasonal change."

    Like I said, some will have a sense of occasion while others lack that wonderful human trait. The introduction of a second surface rotation responsible for the upcoming single sunrise at the South pole (where daily rotation is absent) is a new cause and effect issue to consider and especially extended on to the seasons at all latitudes with secondary inputs like oceans, landmass and so on.

    The meteorological community is always welcome to adjust and adapt without any consultation to the new perspective on cyclical weather as a means to research climate properly with all the effects such as the extent and periodicity of Arctic sea ice and what sets the limits to that extent. It is far better to give society something enjoyable to look at than appeal to extremes and especially without first knowing how climate works with planetary dynamics.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Orion's belt is overrated. Three stars.



  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    I was listening to a news channel on radio in my car this morning and one of the presenters was talking about how unhealthy it was to be mourning the death of the Queen over the course of 10 days. The irony was lost on him as he moved to the topic of gas supplies on the island and the constant mourning of climate change modellers and cheerleaders for decades. That is incredibly unhealthy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 179 ✭✭odyboody


    Mods,

    This tread has drifted so far from 2020 disasters, if it ever was really about that, into various theory's about astronomy and other non weather related topics should it not be locked?



  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    There are people who will go cold this winter because politicians followed experimental theorists in a belief that climate and human consumption are related to each other. What they are actually witnessing is a group of people who live off extreme weather events with dire predictions attached so not content with individual storms, heat waves, cold snaps and so on, they impose on society the most miserable scenarios possible as 'climate change'.

    There are reasons why some would wish to close the thread and have nothing to do with this important matter because it is not a matter of temperature degrees, but of degrees of perceptive and intellectual weakness taking the name of climate science. Anyone can assert a flat Earth out of contrived reasoning and there will always be people willing to contend with them, likewise, climate change modellers have their unfortunate counterparts willing to keep the empirical monstrosity going.



    With the single sunrise approaching at the South pole, few lack the sense of occasion as the South pole turns into the light hemisphere for the first time in 6 months. This is where climate research begins.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,138 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    this extreme event has screwed their agriculture, I smell another war coming...

    Of course I'm sure the experts here can assure us it's all normal and happened before.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Because facts are bad right?

    China drought related deaths.

    1876 - 9million dead

    1928 - 6million dead

    1936 - 5million dead

    1941 - 2.5million dead

    Droughts are nothing new to China. Water consumption for cooling and manufacturing has risen exponentially in China. But I'm sure that plays no role in this and it's 100% AGW. If we remove 200ppm CO2 from the atmosphere the China rivers will once again rage with limitless quantities of water, rewriting history and removing any artefacts of previous predictable natural droughts.

    Their policies of the 80s to include wells as a major source of water for agriculture purposes was short sighted.

    Edit: The ignorance of the plight of Chinese population through history is not a new phenomenon. Anti Chinese sentiments are shared in the West, sympathising with their lose is not practiced. Thelonious Monk is proof in point. Deaths in poorer countries are only ever used as a pawn in war agenda or political jostling.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,138 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    so why are they reporting this as record breaking heat and the worst experienced on record? so they can raise carbon taxes?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    The above point proves that human ingenuity exceeds weather related threats. Less people die than ever before from weather events (Natural or Not) with population double that of the 1800s, so more people with less deaths. The biggest killer of weather/climate is the cold. So a warming planet should help that?

    Scaremongers want to highlight that we are on the brink of civilisation collapse, yet as a species we have show that's not the case. It's not a good reason to run the planet into the ground. But scaremongering is just pure nonsense. Because human deaths are lower, we flip to $$ costs, but AGW lobbyists are not supposed to care about the money(???) The cost of money can be largely attributed to poor planning regulations.

    So more deaths, less CO2 = good?



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The article is almost a month old now. They cherrypicked an area of China that was under extreme heat and drought while not mentioning that it didn't extend to the rest of the country.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    "Of course I'm sure the experts here can assure us it's all normal and happened before."

    I wasn't arguing heat. I was countering the point you made. It is normal for China to have droughts, causing crop failure. A combination for heat wave and drought is what is reported. Again not uncommon. So what is your point exactly?


    Given the size of China it's more appropriate to report provincial impact and not national.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    On record meaning since 1961.

    Monthly Report/TCC (jma.go.jp)


    Warm | From Kyushu region of Japan to southwestern China | The monthly mean temperature in China was the highest on record for August since 1961 (China Meteorological Administration).

    • Monthly
    • Extreme warm (cold) events are identified if monthly mean temperature anomalies from observation exceed (or fall below) +1.83σ (-1.83σ), where σ is the standard deviation of monthly mean temperatures.




  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    All planet's have a climate based on the relationship of their North/South poles to the orbital plane as they run this road around our parent star. The newly released images of Neptune show the planet around Southern summer Solstice-



    There are atmospheric storms similar to Earth as demonstrated by the new imaging.



    Neptune is slightly towards the polar end of the spectrum in terms of climate as its Arctic/Antarctic circles are larger than those on Earth.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Nobody is arguing against that, so what’s the point of your post.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,230 ✭✭✭highdef


    And how does that relate to the subject matter of this thread, that being "2020 officially saw a record number of $1 billion weather and climate disasters"? I'm very unsure as to what your point is.




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  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    What does this mean?

    What is the globalist agenda?

    Who supports this agenda?

    Why does it work better without facts?

    Does it still work with facts? (although less well)

    What facts refute the 'globalist agenda'?



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    The record lowest extent was in 2012 or thereabouts

    The arctic ice mass has been declining pretty steadily year on year.

    We could very well see a run of years between now and 2035 that causes the first 'ice free summers' and there will be positive feedbacks associated with these that will be quite profound Although (not immediate, as the definition of an ice free summer is an arbitrary figure).

    When seasonal sea ice is lost, the ice sheets on land in the arctic will begin flowing freely into the ocean. There will be sea ice, but it's calving off land, rather than freezing and thawing sea ice.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Between now and 2035, you say? We've had a slight increase in summer minimum ice over thr past 13 years, the only such period to show such a trend in the whole satellite dataset. You think that's just going to reverse double time in the next 13?




  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    Information sharing avoids the usual dull reactions for the links between planetary dynamics and planetary climate are for those who can put observations in proper context rather than those who simply can't through no fault of their own.

    The surface of the planet has two distinct sunrise/noon/sunset cycles. The 24 hour cycle is straightforward enough with noon or the middle of the day representing the dynamical property of a location midway to the planet's dark hemisphere, so that the length of time from sunrise to noon is symmetrical with noon to sunset.

    The surface rotation as a function of the orbital motion is based on hemispheres and follows its daily rotational equivalent. The South pole just witnessed the only sunrise this year-

    The middle of the summer in the Southern hemisphere corresponds to the position of the South pole at noon or midway between the September and March Equinoxes and where the circumference where the Sun remains constantly in view (Antarctic circle) is at its greatest.

    There are no climate disasters regardless of how many dangerous and disruptive weather events occur insofar as weather extremes are measured against the anchor reference of planetary climate in comparison to other planets in a Sun-centred system. The images of Neptune and its inclination demonstrate that the planet has turned in its annual orbit to where the South pole of the planet is at its summer location or close to midsummer as its dark hemisphere, although out of view, acts as a reference for the presence of two distinct surface rotations-




  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    Now Highdef, I give you the analogy to do often enough that you can extract the necessary information to remove notions of climate disasters, climate emergencies, climate justice and so on. I only wish our politicians would not make fools of themselves on account of indulgent modellers but then again, they move in the same circles.

    Your body represents the Earth, the floor represents the orbital plane/road by which the planet orbits the central/stationary Sun. Your nose represents the North pole relative to both the orbital plane and the dark hemisphere which is always at right angles to the orbital plane. Walk/orbit around a central object/Sun while keeping your nose pointing in the same direction representing the Polaris observation while safely ignoring the noise of circumpolar motion of the stars-


    You soon discover as you set out on your orbital journey, that after beginning to move forward while keeping your nose orientated to the fixed external point, that you have to move sideways, then backwards, then sideways before completing your journey by facing forwards. Your discover that not only your nose, but that the whole of your body turns to the central object/Sun at one time or another as your run a circuit and this is what the planet Earth does.


    If you don't do this experiment, you will never come to understand the two surface rotations acting in combination to cause the seasons much less planetary climate and that goes for all others who don't see the point or other dull reactions like that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    I said it's possible. We've seen 10 year "pauses" in the past. There is still natural variability that can push in the opposite direction



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Where have these pauses been? Point them out in the chart below.

    The latest 16 years (over one third) of the dataset have shown a practically flat trend. Arctic sea ice extent is strongly linked to the sign of the AMO change. The AMO going from negative to positive (such as happened through the '90s-00s) leads to a decreasing extent trend and vice versa. With the AMO due to go the other way (positive to negative) in the next decade or so we'd expect to see this flat or slightly increasing trend in summer extent continue.




  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    M.T likely has a different set of ideas of what 'globalism' is, but globalism, or a 'global agenda' is a thing:


    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    The linear trend on those charts is deceptive. If you run say a 10 year running mean trendline through that data, you'll likely see various 'pauses' in the past. Just eyeballing the individual points on the graph, I'd say that the trend between 1990 and 2000 would suggest that one such pause took place in that period.

    New Moon



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    That period's trend was 10 times more loss than the last 16 years' (~360K v 38K/decade).

    EDIT: Sorry, you said running mean. Here's the 10-year in blue, with a distinct rise of late.




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