Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Ukraine now will look to launch big counter offensives in Zaporozhzhia oblast in the coming weeks, as the longer they wait the harder it gets with Russian mobilised reserves expected to make it to the front in about 4-6 weeks from now.

Expect a big push south toward Melitopol to split the Russian occupied territory in 2. They have already been launching smaller scale attempts from Orekhov but made no progress. Now they may repeat but with large numerical superiority

I think Russia will be defeated by financiers sooner than by the Ukrainian military. This is how the USSR, ended - on it's knees with an extended empty bowl; please sir, can I have $120 billion.

That's a last ditch thing to try and save face with his own public and hold on to power, but what would eat away at him is that he knows that we know that he'd have fallen way short of his original objectives, so it don't believe it's a result he could sit on. He's been public enough with his ambitions of Novorusia at this stage, and he probably knows that if that project is not completed in his premiership, it won't happen at all. So, he's going to try to push on. He won't stop prosecuting this war until he cannot.

Yes, the West is basically the key factor here. If they supply enough weapons Ukraine can keep fighting to try and regain all territory. If the West gets weary of the whole thing, for whatever reason, they can just reduce support and force Ukraine to compromise. Not just military support, but the incredible economic support that will be required to rebuild the country afterwards. At the moment support still seems strong, we'll see what winter brings.

Looking at FR 24, a US Rivet Joint operating out of Mildenhall has been doing a run from Poland to Lithuania (via Suwalki gap) then east to the Baltic. Effectively emphasising that Kaliningrad is surrounded and under close watch. I wonder have Kaliningrad's air defences been moved like those of Petersburg.

Jack Charlton tactics: "Put 'em under pressure"

I'm not well versed in these matters at all, but I think a nightmare scenario may be looming --

Ukraine continues to retake territory and, sham referendums aside, Russia is left defending an ever decreasing area of Ukraine but refuse to agree to a ceasefire and continue to fire missiles into Ukraine.

This is why the retaking of Crimea may be necessary, to further humiliate Putin, in an effort to precipitate real change in Russia.

Most Russian objections to the course of the war are based on potential military loss of face, they are not remotely concerned about the plight of their more civilised and more intelligent neighbours. This is why humiliation is an absolute necessity, it's the only thing they understand - "we, as a nation, seem to have no choice but to accept total defeat, therefore we are beaten".

I doubt very much if the EU interest will flag, hard winter or not...they know full well how bad it may have gone for them ( Germany) if Ukraine had not held the line.

What is 'voluntary' conscription?

I am a bit puzzled as to why some people seem to think Ukraine might go for Belgorod. Why would they? All the Ukraine need to do is get back its own lands including Crimea. All those silly and naff referendums are a farce and Kyiv will take not an iota of notice of them.

Into the grinder you go.

300,000 is just a small enough number to get Russians used to the idea of the conscription. It will not be enough to "win" in Ukraine. Winning in Ukraine is not the goal anymore, the goal is to remove all freedoms in Russia using war as a pretext. Imagine a happy Putin and his cronies when they no longer need to pretend to be "democratically elected" or observe any laws. All Russians will be conscripted into making armaments or mining some dirt in Siberia, with no freedom to chose, and any dissenters sent to labour camps. War without end and the enslaved population fearing you as you can strike anyone down with impunity. That is a dream for any dictator.

Indeed.

With Yakutsk over 8,300km from Moscow, and 8 800km to St Petersburg this mobilisation is far removed from the seat of power and those around it who are making the decisions.

This won't stop until we see this type of departure happening on a large scale in the capital.

Remember folks it's not happening