Russia - threadbanned users in OP

One article is about fleeing mobilisation, the other is about deserters. 1 being civilians avoiding the mobilisation, aka draft dodgers.

The other article is about deserters, as in soldiers deserting the army.

2 entirely different groups of people.

Sorry, but Estonia, Latvia and Finland all have the right idea to not consider fleeing Russian men as legitimate refugees. These people would mostly be against risking their own necks, while at the same time fully supporting Russias actions and intentions regarding Ukraine.

Deserters includes people called up for mobilisation now, the article makes that clear. Refusing to fight means jail i.e. serious repression. It's not limited to people in Ukraine now

So even if there might be a chance to bring this war to an end faster, but it perhaps means the west doesn't get it's decisive victory against Putin/Russia, you would be happy to sink into a 20 year conflict like perhaps what we witnessed in Iraq/Afghanistan as the better alternative?

And what if Ukraine is markedly different to something like Vietnam for example? The US was there to defeat communism, not really the Vietnamese. And it wasn't right on their doorstep either, so much easier for them to tuck tail and scamper away. If Russia was to run away from their objectives in Ukraine, then they would have to live with the consequences.... and the consequences are most likely a western controlled Ukraine right on their doorstep. This would be unfathomable to many millions of Russians not just Putin. It would be the biggest humiliation their country could possibly suffer. Far worse than their economy being in the toilet or Russia being viewed as a big evil empire.

I think people in the west underestimate just how many Russians care about the prestige and image of their country. They may not like Putin or his aggression, but that doesn't mean they're going to back the west and cheer on a big humiliating defeat for their nation. And Putin is banking on this too, just like most nations do when they choose to go to war.

This is why I think the Russians could very well be prepared to fight to very last man, rather than ever allow the west to win. But what does this mean for the future prospects of Ukraine? What if Putin is prepared to smash Ukraine into a thousand pieces, rather than hand it over to the west?

How come the Russians in charge of rounding up people for Ukraine haven't hopped skipped and jumped to airports, train/bus stations and border crossings and load up all those lads legging it? Seems an easier way to mobilise than having to travel to near Alaska to round up people

Join Date: September 2022

FFS 🤪

Some posters are not happy unless the report comes from God almighty himself... on 2nd thought, they probably don't like that guy either!

No, it is a propaganda arm of a now openly hostile + aggressive state (which neither FOX or CNN are...). I suppose it could be tolerated under aegis of allowing "freedom of speech" pre Feb of this year, but not post. It's not like the Russian internal TV either. It is/was aimed towards somewhat gullible and confused Westerners, receptive to the messages.

Not a viewer either but from what I have read about the content + how it operat(ed), it was a seemingly "normal" news channel but stories will be picked and presented to always give views that the Kremlin wants to put across in the West or achieve its goals on a given day. Afair that was mainly just nihilism, promoting chaos and internal divisions in what Russia/Putin believed were its "enemies", spreading FUD about the place.

Very similar IMO to how Soviet outward-facing propaganda about the US/West etc. used to operate during the Cold war, but much more effective (a slick & modern TV station + website etc. vs some odd-ball grotty shop run by Soviet sympathisers perhaps flogging pamphlets and newspapers to "useful idiots"!).

Russian artillery conducted 4 missile strikes and 27 air strikes, conducted over 75 shelling with MLRS against 45 settlements across Ukraine, including Pechenihy, Pryshyb, Yarova, Spirne, Vesele, Bakhmut, Maryinka, Krasnohorivka, Kostyantynivka, Neskuchne, Poltavka, Yehorivka, Bezimenne, Kryvyi Rih, Bilohirya, Zaporizhzhia, Bilohirka, Pervomaiske, Mykolaiv, Ochakiv, Vysokopillia, Sukhiy Stavok, Myrolyubvika, Novohryhorivka, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report

no ghosts being given up at the moment

here's that tweet

Estonia understands perfectly the situation. They've been through it before.

What point is there letting in Russian males of fighting age who oppose the war and regime and want to leave Russia when they are needed in Russia to bring about change. It's cowardice. Not what their fathers would have done.

The only way change happens is from within Russia and by It's people. Every male at risk of conscription who wants to leave is a pair of boots on the ground in Russia who if pushed more will take to the streets against Putin's regime.

Interesting points. But consider:

1. The missiles are hypersonic, travelling at Mach 10+. The West have no means to counter such missiles, that we know of.

2. As a demonstrative "shot across the bow" to the West, and as hypothesised elsewhere, the target may not be Ukraine-based. There are plenty of places in the Baltic Sea where a detonation could occur in order to get Ukraine to back off if, for example, HIMARS came within range of Sevastapol and its ports.

3. The missile would be fired from within Russian controlled airspace. The aircraft would never leave Russian TAS. They are already doing this from the North towards the Donbas.

4. It's hugely significant that the Mig-31's have been moved to Kaliningrad. They were Russias answer to the SR-71. They are also one of the few aircraft in the Russian Airforce capable of killing satellites, which would be one of the 1st moves during or just before a nuclear strike. The reasons for this are a whole other subject.

5. None of the above. Of course, these are all just theories of mine taking into account various OSINT observations, opinions of folks in the game, aircraft movements etc. Going by how surprising some actions of both sides have been, who knows. There are also many in Russian media channels and independent observers mentioning that Putins comments did not refer to the use of a WMD in Ukraine, but in the West somewhere.

My gut feeling is that there would be two detonations to try to convince the West to recalibrate their actions. The first, which in my opinion will happen fairly soon, will be a test detonation ( North Korea style) under the guise of a testing program, to rubbish opinions that their Nuclear arsenal is in a state of disrepair

Then, if that fails to grab attention, the second will be designed to get the West's undivided attention in a way that would have maximum attention grabbing but minimum damage. My guess is an underwater detonation in either the Black Sea or elsewhere.

Of course, this is just the opinions of a keyboard warrior. Who knows!