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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,625 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Baltic countries warning of blackouts if Russia disconnects them from it's electric grid.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,977 ✭✭✭893bet


    The end of the world is not nigh despite all the anecdotal evidence being presented. Some rough times ahead no doubt.


    My own evidence. The place is I work is a MNC (greater than 80k world wide, US HQ) has a very successful product that is in the process of re-design.

    It’s manufacture was up for “tender” so to speak internally at the company. We do sub contract a lot of mfg out (and always have done) to places like Mexico and Asia. Could we have done that this time? Sure. Cheaper? Probably, I assume so but haven’t seen that financial business case.


    But the Strategic decision was to place the MFG in Ireland. Which is a 10-20 year investment and many millions on setting up the manufacture lines.

    It would be easier go abroad as we will need to be able to support both versions at the same time as one ramps down and the other ramps up.


    But the strategic decision is to remain in Ireland.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    You're seeing this with a lot of firms - shortening supply chains and concentrating on countries with stable and predictable business environments closer to critical markets where things are actually sold.

    Risk managers have congregated around the idea that places like China bear political risks that are too high now, not even to mention the persistance of an insane zero-covid strategy meaning an instant supply failure point at the whim of a CCP goon in whatever province afraid of being purged by Beijing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,625 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Of course they want Russian pipeline gas back. They know that if it happened ( big if ) then companies would be able to make stuff at a good price to sell, pay taxes to keep reliant countries running, keep on employing people, the price would come down globally, farmers could grow crops to feed people, inflation would fall and some people might be saved from actually freezing to death.

    Unfortunately the clowns in charge of the circus somehow don't understand that, or are unwilling to admit they fu**ed up in the first place thinking Russia would simply collapse. Or simply don't give a **** if all the above happens, because it looks like no one has a clue what to do if it all ends in disaster.

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones


    Too many here are blinkered by only looking at multinationals.

    SMEs are the life blood of the country. Don't mind your silicone docks. The SME sector is Ireland.

    Consumer sentiment is at its lowest since 2007

    Inflation is at decades highs

    A war in Europe.

    Energy price hikes haven't been felt yet. Food shortages possible next year.

    We have gone from "transitory Inflation" to





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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,977 ✭✭✭893bet


    How many people do you think will freeze to death in Ukraine this year? My bet is a lot more than will in Germany.


    And that’s before we get into the murder, rape and castration that’s going on.



  • Registered Users Posts: 385 ✭✭SummerK


    Euro, as well as GBP (& others), are losing their value against the dollar heavily as 1 Euro is 0.968 USD now. I guess we might see <0.9 in the next few weeks.



  • Registered Users Posts: 993 ✭✭✭greenfield21


    Multinationals are everything, look at the corporate tax take... look at the income tax take from MNCs. The numbers are simply extraordinary... how many SMEs are still in business because of MNCs



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    No one is saying that they are not important but it is overlooked that the SME sector is where the very most of people work.


    The powers that be forget that it is a jigsaw.


    Excluding finance sector they are 70% of business Jobs. That's from enterprise Ireland.


    The majority of economic activity will always be weighted to SMEs



  • Registered Users Posts: 993 ✭✭✭greenfield21


    Of course and when all the MNCs have come and gone that is all we will have left or whatever remains of the SMEs sector.

    I am not sure what will actually remain considering Ireland has no indigenous sectors other than agriculture. For now MNCs are everything and they are all that matter.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Stock market is going tits up.

    Stock market is a leading indicator.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones


    Great example again of the thinking

    275,000 people work for multinationals in Ireland.

    1.1 million of us work for an SME.

    These are the actual places and businesses we all use everyday.

    I don't give a phuck about Facebook or Amazon.

    Cafes, shops, small businesses of all sorts in rery city ,town and village is more important for all of us.

    You would rather boarded up Ireland with high unemployment except for wealthy companies.

    Nice society



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,977 ✭✭✭893bet


    A lot of the SME sectors are reliant on the MNC. They are far from mutually exclusive.

    SME providing IT services, catering, cleaning, printing, packaging, component for MFg etc.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,274 ✭✭✭EOQRTL


    Some grim predictions today by a few analysts on Reuters. Lot of companies going bust over the next 6-12 months unfortunately



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,274 ✭✭✭EOQRTL


    Putin is just waiting until the cold snap starts im afraid. The world is facing down the barrel and we are lacking any real leadership to sort it out. We've piss weak leaders were ever you look, Truss, Macron, Biden, Scholz etc...



  • Registered Users Posts: 993 ✭✭✭greenfield21


    Nonsese, go walk through dublin and tell me any business that would be there when you strip out MNCs. Then you have all the public sector workers and where this money is coming from to pay everyone...

    The Irish government should be over in silicon Valley everyday kissing the feet of the tech CEOs because that's all that matters now. We have gone all in.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones


    Not everyone lives or works in the city centre . In fact the vast majority don't!

    What kind of country and societal morale if much of both urban and especially rural Ireland boarded up.

    We all have to live in the country. You are looking at it from only numbers on a page . That's not real life day to day.

    SMEs are backbone of this country



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    A lesson from the last ten years of free money that you can't have your cake and eat it too.

    Fundamentals of economics still stands even though it takes a while.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Yes. Ireland would be some dump without the mncs. We'd have high unemployment.

    What we have, with so many big companies and all the good jobs, is like hitting oil. Ireland is a country like Norway sitting on a goldmine of billions.

    We get billions and billions and billions every year that we don't really deserve. Our government have actually wasted all our multi national money.

    If they all exited tomorrow, what have we to show for the last 13 years or so? Nothing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 687 ✭✭✭Subzero3


    The ruble is stronger now against the dollar then then Euro. Maybe you or I can't get it here but a large % of the world can.

    The Euro is not going to recover untill the EU get cheap Russian energy. prove me wrong.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,585 ✭✭✭jackboy


    Yes, we have intentionally damaged tourism during covid, far more than necessary. Agriculture is under sustained attack now and there is determination to destroy that. SMEs don’t have support or respect from those in power.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,919 ✭✭✭enricoh


    The amount of lads I know working on the intel site is unreal. Once you scratch your a#£e safely that'll do.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,244 ✭✭✭Sammy2012




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,060 ✭✭✭eggy81


    There was a fella that fell through a concealed ope in floor last night there and fell 25ft and hit the floor underneath. He’s got away without breaking a single bone. Very lucky boy. It’s nowhere near as safe as it’s reputation. Just too big and too many people there at the moment. Meant to be an awful spot to work if your actually interested in getting anything done.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I don't think so.For example you could see manipulations with oil prices before November Congress elections in USA at the moment.Oil price falling without logic reasons before winter time when usually oil prices are rising,also demand are not falling.

    For example on morning you could see oil price of 85 bucks when Before was 86 bucks price.Beside it you will read Bloomberg explanation that oil price are falling because investors fear of recession coming.

    In number of days after that you will see oil price at 87 bucks.So what happened with investors fears I would like to ask then.

    Gold price.Look at gold price in 2008 recession when ECB rates were higher and now !

    Look at Big tech data Google for example.All market information are carefully filtered.The markets bs which are good for USA democrats always on the top of the search.

    Don't take markets as indicator anymore.Find other markers ,even reduced hours of local cafe give better information about condition of the economy than markets !



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,325 ✭✭✭Deub


    With your first paragraph, you just proved his point.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I was listening russian propaganda today.The some analysts was telling about future of the Europe .

    For example if Germany will come for gas to Russia to make products in Germany they will be told start make products in Russia if they want get gas.At the moment Europe buying fert from Russia and will have continue to buy it Because fert plants in Europe due with high cost of gas putting locks on the doors.

    If Europe will want buy gas from Russia to produce electricity then they will be told buy electricity from Russian NPP or thermal were gas will be burned.

    In half year of sanctions against Russia the Europe lost of 1 trillion of GDP when Russian earned extra 200 billions from higher prices of gas and oil.

    If Europe will put price cap on oil from Russia then Russia will simply stop selling oil to Europe.China and India already getting discount buying oil from Russia and even if USA will put cap on the price the price for India and China still will be the same as now.

    VW preparing leave Eastern Europe and move factories elsewhere.Skoda are at risk.The gas price in USA 8 times cheaper than in Europe but problem is that VW doesn't getting as much gas as he want.

    The price of many companies will start falling in Europe.USA investors will buy them for peanuts and close down eliminating competitors on Europe market or bringing manufacturing to USA.

    Very sad that Irish media are heavily censored and afraid speak truth.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,325 ✭✭✭Deub


    What a lot of nonsense you posted there which includes the numbers you added to make it “credible”.

    why don’t you buy in Russia now while it is cheap before all these big companies arrive there?

    Forget about your plan to retire here. There won’t be any money to pay food so let alone pension.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    LinkedFinance announced today that their lending has doubled from two years.

    For those who don't know what LinkedFinance are, they are a peer to peer lending company. So anyone can lend money to businesses seeking money.

    I'm seeing a massive number of loans being requested on it now, that I didn't before. Likely because banks were giving out the cash no bother. I'm thinking that finance has dried up for a lot of companies and now they're resorting to P2P lending.

    There's been 6 loans requested in the last 3 days.

    There's one company operating since the mid 60's, in the construction industry, that are looking for 100k for working capital. Not good signs.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Now some numbers about gas in Russia.

    Russia producing 720 billions of gas per year and exporting only 200 billions from it.The 520 billions Russia using them self.So forget about Russia will die if nobody will buy gas from Russia.The Europe was getting 130 billions cubic metres when now only in China Russia gona export 16-20 billions and after Power of Siberia 2 will be started in 2024 then amount of gas to China will be raised to 50 billions per year what will nearly replace half of export to Europe.

    The Norway for example producing around 120 billions per year and use only 5 billions them self.



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