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NI Census 2021

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  • Registered Users Posts: 68,814 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Newsletter digging up old surveys to feel better is peak Newsletter/Ben Lowry. 😁

    I also wouldn't vote for a UI 'tomorrow'.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,447 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    A poor journalistic article that declares "never". Scottish Independence "never" rose above 50% but now finds itself at 52%, trending upwards slowly since devolution. Trends are important here.

    A state crested explicitly as a Protestant enclave has found itself becoming Catholic. I'm sure its founders "never" thought it'd turn that way, despite attempts to curtail that. It's some wilful dismissal not to see the seismic result of this.

    Of course "Catholic" doesn't equal "nationalist", nobody's that naive but tides turn, cultures shift. Recognising Northern Ireland as a changing state will work better than pretending it'll "never" unify. Especially when the homeland continues to treat NI with contempt.



  • Registered Users Posts: 799 ✭✭✭kazamo


    Not frustrated at all with democracy, welcome it whole heartedly.

    I think I am more open to democracy than others in this forum, I am open to the possibility of more than 1 option but hey call me a partitionist if that makes you feel better 😂 😂 .

    I also believe we should be putting our money where our mouth is, by part funding the NI subvention. We have a surplus, send 500m a year to show our goodwill and helping the NI economy and move once and for all, away from the hurler of the ditch mentality we have towards the six counties.

    A UI is probably 15-20 years away so unlikely to impact me anyway.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,814 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    We already fund it.

    The debate about how much the subvention actually is, is not over either.



  • Registered Users Posts: 799 ✭✭✭kazamo




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  • Registered Users Posts: 68,814 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady




  • Registered Users Posts: 799 ✭✭✭kazamo


    You looked it up and found out it was peanuts………so we don’t fund the North in any meaningful way.

    Thanks Buddy 👍 👍



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,814 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Maybe you should have 'looked it up' before making your proclamation.😉

    One of the projects we committed 75 million to. Peanuts? 😁



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,065 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    So that's the GFA, Citizens' Assemblies and now subvention that have gotten a going over from that poster.

    What's next I wonder?



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,814 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    It's a curious phenomenon - kneejerk partitionism. I presume it comes from fear of change?

    It's something a Citizen's Assembly is designed to overcome, in my opinion. A platform to give the proper information to both sides of the debate. I know the previous instances certainly informed me about issues relating to the topics they covered.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 799 ✭✭✭kazamo


    You made the proclamation about us funding the North, and are now struggling to back your claim up 😆 .

    Interesting choice of words….proclamation 🤔

    Please provide the link for the 75m, and I hope it’s not funding from the EU or from further afield.


    In the White Paper published overnight, our Tax Receipts is forecasted for 2022 as close to 84 billion (see below link).

    75m is a small number in that context and as it’s for a project, probably won’t be all spent in one year.


    In the 26 counties we spend about 84 billion in support of a population of 5 million.

    We have an insatiable desire to bring another 1.9m people into the fold, and so far you have found 75m( no link provided) in support of the six counties. If we are serious about this, we need to do far more and stop playing hurler on the ditch.

    But that wouldn’t suit your UI agenda would it.

    Heaven forbid the taxpayers in the South start thinking how much this might cost and the headache of listening to two communities who hate each other. There is peace in Northern Ireland, but no reconciliation.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,065 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Seeing how the Eighth Amendment and Marriage Equality ones were handled, you'd think they'd welcome the forum with open arms.

    Though apparently having a CA would be tantamount to annexation AND wouldn't allow contrary views to be aired anyway, so it'd be pointless.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,814 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    And the truth is, there might never be true reconciliation...BTW you cannot 're'concile' that which was never together in the first place. You can however build new relationships in a setting of true equality. That's what is on offer in a UI, whatever form it takes. The people of this island responsible for their own futures and fate, without 'outside impediment'.

    Keep on trying to make a silk purse out of the sow's ear you made of the 'funding' issue. We do fund the north in many ways - google is your friend. Be informed and you won't put the foot in it again.



  • Registered Users Posts: 799 ✭✭✭kazamo


    You can’t back up your claim so you ask others to google what doesn’t exist. Sad really

    Please be more informed before you make claims that don’t stack up.


    A UI will happen, I have no doubt about it, just a matter of when, at what cost(both financially and socially).

    But you don’t care about that as a 32 county state is all that matters. Fixing the 1922 mistake is the only issue and we’ll figure everything else out as we go along.

    Another bank guarantee moment but what’s the harm, we have a 32 county state.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,814 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Ì'm confused...what are you asking me to 'care' about'?

    The opinion of somebody who refuses to inform themselves?



  • Registered Users Posts: 514 ✭✭✭FraserburghFreddie


    Great post,which shatters SF and their supporters vague assertion of the magic money tree funding a UI which must be achieved at all costs.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,814 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Poster is totally underinformed.

    Needs to look at the whole picture, which certainly doesn't support his/her claims. From underwriting the continuance of Erasmus for students to funding in the 2040 plan and other one-off payments we have funded the north.

    That he/she now pivots to it not being enough, is another point altogether.



  • Registered Users Posts: 514 ✭✭✭FraserburghFreddie


    Erasmus,an excellent EU funded project doesn't quite cover claims that Ireland would pay for a UI though does it?It boils down to discussions that have been endlessly picked over on various other threads which usually results in a standoff with sf fantasists refusing to accept that although many in Ireland and NI like the idea of a UI, funding it and the inevitable discord it would bring make it happening soon,unlikely imo.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,814 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    This typical Brexiteer logic.

    Where do you think the EU gets the money to re-invest in these programs?

    Yes, it is partly OUR taxes being re-invested in us and we have decided to extend that to those deprived of it in NI.

    We are 'the EU' Freddie.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,300 ✭✭✭✭jm08


    We already co-fund a lot of projects in NI, usually 85/15% through the North South Council. Artnagelvin Hospital got 18 million (plus gets paid for each person who uses it from ROI). Waterways Ireland is funded 85/15% by Irish Gov. From what I recall, the ROI was to fund a motorway to Derry. Then there is the All Island electricity market. And Tourism Ireland markets the whole of the island.

    Probably the most amusing funding for NI was the Ulster Scots Promotion agency which was chaired by Lord Laird (now deceased). Seemingly, he used to come down to Dublin for meetings with Dept. and used to claim the cost of a taxi from Belfast to Dublin (return). He couldn't use the train because he used get some 'looks' for wearing a kilt! The Irish taxpayer put up with that and just laughed it off. Also seem to recall, funding going to Orange Halls as well.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 537 ✭✭✭Speedline


    You would think the 1.9 million don't generate any tax revenue the way you are going on.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,688 ✭✭✭eire4




  • Registered Users Posts: 68,814 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I see Unionist and partitionist dismissal of the census implications has moved on to the Future Ireland conference in the 3 Arena.

    An abiding problem for the allies in maintaining the Union is how to make it positive. Arlene Foster is launching a 'save the Union' campaign shortly, that will be interesting. IMO they should have gotten somebody else to head it up, too much baggage with Arlene.

    Constant rearguard negativity is a major factor driving people away from identifying as Unionist IMO, especially the younger voter.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,540 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Yet, there is still strong support in the North to remain in the Union.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,814 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Impossible to assess support when there has been no plan presented for a UI. Get back when there is one and people express a view.

    Those identifying as British have dropped 9% and that is as a result of Unionism's constant negativity and rearguard strategies, That is the point I made.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,644 ✭✭✭Enduro


    It strikes me that the biggest progress towards a UI in the last week or two is not the Census results (Which with the strenghtening of the NI identity make a UI less likely in some ways), but with recent "Fiscal Event". The more wroecked the UK economy becomes, particularly relative to the Irish economy, the more attractive a UI becomes. And if the UK government start hammering the NHS to try to recover their budget defiicit then that will really beef the process up.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,228 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    the Census results (Which with the strenghtening of the NI identity make a UI less likely in some ways)

    But the NI identity is weakening, not strengthening.



  • Registered Users Posts: 45,594 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    Significant independence march in Wales today:

    There was a sizeable one in Edinburgh today as well. Add in the Ireland's Future event, and the future of the UK's make-up is being discussed in a way that wouldn't have seemed possible without Brexit.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,622 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    I think it is the opposite. The republican community are talking up the census and spinning it to mean something that is just not there. Similarly they are talking up Irelands future conference. The reality is that a group with undisclosed backing rented a 13,000 seater arena and publicised widely to a 6,000,000+ population. They sold less than half their seats. Clearly there is little interest in stirring this issue up.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,689 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    In the IT:

    Irish unification would cost €4bn a year not €10bn - research finds

    Ireland’s Future document says true cost of unification not Earth-shattering in context of Government spending

    This is from a Belfast project, Ireland Future, who are campaigning for a United Ireland, so take from it what you will.

    It makes a number of assumptions that suggest that the UK would continue to pay pensions in NI, which would be reasonable for those pensions earned while NI was part of the UK. It also assumes the current NI figures for the Westminster subvention includes funding for the UK defence forces, including Trident. UK debt funding is also discounted, as is international services. Clearly it would be illogical for the Irish state to be responsible for any of these.

    Essentially, the argument is that the cost of the subvention is overstated to make it too expensive for the Irish state. Now it is no coincidence that the UK does not publish statistics that separate the NI economy from the UK economy. They also state that the UK would be under a moral obligation to continue some form of subvention. They also expect that the EU and the USA will contribute.

    The demographic move shown in the census 2021 obviously will concentrate minds.



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