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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,625 ✭✭✭brickster69


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,048 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    The pipeline can be shut on both sides. Turbines can pressurize gas in domestic system.

    Your argument makes no sense. Germany caving and requesting gas through Nordstream is a situation where Putin has his cake and can eat it - its the best of both worlds, get paid for gas and continue to invade Ukraine. There is no downside to that scenario.

    However having NS1+2 out of action is terrible for Putin - it means he no longer has leverage over Europe because he cannot supply enough gas to them if they cave to his demands (remove sanctions, stop supplying ukraine with arms). With NS out of the way there is no leverage and no alternative for Europe. The Russians would be mad to sabotage their own pipeline, it makes no sense whatsoever.


    From an economic POV, the long term outlook for Eurozone is now that bit darker with the 2 pipelines out of action. 23 and 24 will be quite hard years, and may see significant amounts of European (German mostly) industry fold and probably move to the US with their cheaper energy costs. Good news for LNG suppliers though!



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    There is a clear reason for it for Putin.


    The level of economic devastation to Europe, yes he forgoes some revenues but gas to Europe while sizeable is only a couple% of GDP, it's no oil as far as Russia are concerned.


    The relationship between Europe and Russia is soured for a generation, so the pipes are a dead loss either way.


    So for a few % of GDP he is setting the deindustrialization of Germany and much of Europe in motion.


    That's a big trade off.


    A return to the status quo, even with Russia holding the bit of Ukraine it has leaves Russia on the same trajectory to being a bit player to Europe.


    Sanctions are hurting Europe but people will stick with them to force Russia and it's the right thing in this hybrid war.


    He will also take pain to inflict much more on Europe.


    Transport experts are bigger for Russia than Gas to Europe.


    The Belgian PM is talking about 10 hard winters ahead.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,048 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Russia had already stopped transiting gas through the pipeline to europe. NS1 was running at <10%, with intermittent shutdowns also. If they wanted to cut off gas, they could just do that. Bombing their own pipeline makes no sense. Also euro gas sales are far more than just a few % of GDP - they are worth a fortune there.

    And the reason the gas was turned down at NS1 in the first place was as a bargaining chip against sanctions & supplies of weapons to ukraine. Now that NS is out of action, that leverage is gone. THere is no scenario where it benefits russia to have those pipelines blown.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,308 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    How easy is it to fix underwater pipelines when bombed like that? Can they be replaced in chunks?

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Russian global gas sales was 5.3% of their exports prior to the war. Much of that to Europe,not all though, much less in terms of GDP.


    Blowing it sends a threat to Europe, a threat to gas markets in Europe. It removes the theat of Germany throwing in the towel on sanctions and saying we don't care sell us gas.


    Putin has only a few weapons that are existential threats to Europe, food and commodities and forcing migration to swamp the economy and societies of Europe. He is not using nuclear.


    Russia feeds over a billion people globally with its wheat, yet that is only 1% of its exports.


    It was only in Russian's interest to blow it and they are the only ones who did.


    Weapons will continue to flow in to Ukraine from the West, regardless.


    Sanctions will continue against Russia by most of the West, regardless.



    This is an existential conflict as far as Putin is concerned, either Russia or Europe come out on top .


    He will continue to escalate.





  • For better or for worse, nuclear looks to be a clear option for future energy requirements; but there will be a generation coping with a downturn in industrialisation, data processing, a slowdown in progress, companies going bust here, there and everywhere. Standard of living with fall, progress in some areas will stagnate, and there will be difficulties for people managing expectations. I don’t see a quick way out of this. My only hope might be some pragmatic heads in Russia pulling Putin aside, making a palatable deal with Ukraine, aside and establishing relations with the west.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Say it is fairly handy, all considered.


    A length of the pipe is about as long as an artic flatbed.


    Who would bother fixing it when the Russian will blow another place as soon as it is fixed.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,326 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing




  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    It was obvious that depending on Russian was going to be a catastrophic mistake, Merkel spoke years ago of how Putin wanted to destroy the economy of Western Europe.


    Her response to Crimea was to award him the Nordstream contract, and to start a radical winding down of Energy sources that were a threat to the primacy of Russian gas over the German economy.


    She was worth more than the 200k professional Russia soldiers in the end and probably cost less.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,048 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    5.3% of GDP is massive amount for starters.

    Blowing it sends a threat to Europe, a threat to gas markets in Europe. It removes the theat of Germany throwing in the towel on sanctions and saying we don't care sell us gas.


    What threat is this? If Germany come with their tail between their legs asking for gas and lifting sanctions, that is a win for Russia. They get to have their cake (ukraine invasion) and eat it (no sanctions). That is the ideal situation for russia, it is not a threat to them in any way.

    You have gone fully into conspiracy theory mode here, so much so that your attempted rationalisations make no sense.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Its 5.3% of exports not GDP.


    If Germany buys Russian gas it cements European power and Russia as only a supply cog, a well paid cog.


    That's a long term defeat, short term victory.


    It's hardly conspiratorial, we know that the pipe was blow up in 2 places. Do you think it wasn't bombed?


    Who do you think bombed it?


    Was it America, trying to take out one of it's main trade partners?



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,048 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    If Germany buys Russian gas it cements European power and Russia as only a supply cog, a well paid cog.

    Ah yes, if I sell stuff to my neighbours for billions of dollars I am the fool losing out and they are the ones taking advantage of me. 🙄

    Russia needs money, they need to sell gas. They also need for sanctions to be lifted. TO have NS1+2 as a bargaining chip for sanctions to be lifted is a very good position. To have NS1+2 blown up in 3 places is not at all a good situation for Russia.

    Ukraine, US or UK would all have motives to hit the pipeline, as none of them would benefit from transit of gas, however all would benefit from continued european solidarity toward Ukraine. Removing nordstream removes any alternative for germany toward supporting sanctions + arming ukraine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Oil is the big contributor to Russia, not gas.


    Gas is nice though.


    Germany alone has spent 100bn so far on the Energy crisis and Winter has not started and we have had a very mild Autumn. Cheap return for Putin on such a small loss to his economy. Nevermind the rapid pace of deindustrialization now starting in Germany and the long term damage that will do to it and Europe.


    Ukraine hit the pipeline. Lol.


    Same with the US and UK.


    Mad conspiracy theory.


    The UK, US and European countries all have strong support to continue supplying weapons to Ukraine. They do not have to change anything for that.


    The 20% lift in gas prices after the bombing cost Europe more economically than what weapons it has given.


    In terms of the economy of Europe it is a pittance, Pascal's budget splurge increase of 12bn is greater than all global military aid to Ukraine up till end of August.


    Russia is mobilising in a desperate attempt to hold on to what little it has taken. No one in the West is going to be that concerned about the Russian army. A bigger concern now is that Russia with a broken Army becomes more unstable.


    Russia is talking about not selling oil to Europe, that's a big issue for it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,048 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    The only mad conspiracy theory is that the Russians would bomb their own pipeline for a net gain of sweet feck all. If they wanted to shut off the gas all they had to do was shut it off on their side of the pipeline. Torpedoing your own infrastructure, real smart move 🙄

    The 20% lift in gas prices after the bombing cost Europe more economically than what weapons it has given.

    eh??? What has any of that got to do with the actual supply of tangible weaponry to Ukraine?


    Anyways this is veering all off topic so I'll leave it at that



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,018 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    Looks like BOE are stepping in and going printing pounds and buying bonds (much like the ECB) in order to control their interest rates and stop them from spiraling. Wonder will King Charles be on the newly printed pounds, surely it would be a good idea and kill 2 birds with the 1 stone :).

    Big current account deficits, huge debts, polarized nation, huge wealth divides and now an extremely weak and disastrous leadership, what could go wrong.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,625 ✭✭✭brickster69


    They are possible out of action forever, which means so is Russian gas. It's over, probably was anyway. Just need to find a replacement now, that is all.

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,601 ✭✭✭snotboogie


    I would say that Ukraine have more to lose than anybody. If they were found bombing Western European pipelines it would obliterate their support in Europe and likely in the US too, they would capitulate to the Russians without Western support and would likely cease to exist as a nation state. If Ukraine bombed nordstream it would be the single stupidest and most reckless move by a country in modern history.

    For the Americans, they are currently enjoying their best relationship with Western Europe in a century. European counties are pitching up defence spending, are begging to join NATO and Russia are scrambling to survive in Ukraine. Why would they need to take a massive gamble that would threaten their relationship with their closest allies over a gas pipe that will likely never be used in any capacity again anyway?

    Who are the only side taking massive reckless gambles at the moment?



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,048 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Why close it down when they could blow it up? 🙄



  • Registered Users Posts: 687 ✭✭✭Subzero3


    Great we ruined the EU so we can stick it to Putin.

    What a sham of a policy. Well sone USA you played a blinder. How many politicians were bribed along the way. In the words of US secretary of state "Fxuk the EU".



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  • Registered Users Posts: 687 ✭✭✭Subzero3


    "Sanctions are hurting Europe but people will stick with them to force Russia and it's the right thing in this hybrid war".

    Sorry but thats not true. We couldn't care less about Russia or Ukrianie.

    The real hybrid war is the US making Europe fully dependent on it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,919 ✭✭✭enricoh


    I honestly think the average person in Europe won't care less about what's happening in the Donbass this winter. We are 6 months into the war and interest is naturally waning among the public. Russia wouldn't last a wet week invading a NATO country so the EU ain't getting invaded.

    We'll have 80k Ukrainians here by crimbo and apparently food price rises in Africa will lead to a mass exodus to Europe. Huge amounts of jobs will be lost this winter imo. Hopefully the budget restores consumer sentiment for a while.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    The first of many and all done by Russia not selling gas to Europe a tiny part of it's export portfolio.


    It will add in metals and commodities and probably oil.


    It will hurt Russia deeply but his aim is for it to kill Europe economically.


    He might well succeed in that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,048 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    The fact that they unilaterally are closing pipelines shows that they have no need to sabotage their own pipeline - they are perfectly capable of simply shutting the pipelines down themselves.

    The lack of income would kill Russia long before Europe

    ECB money printer go Brrrr...



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    It makes sense because there are easy marks in the West that are wedded to conspiracy theories like CIA frogmen attacking NATO countries infrastructure. And Putin, apart from being a serial murderer, is a born troll.

    Whatever happens in this war, the tide has gone out on naiive idiots all around, and they haven't even copped that everyone can see they're not wearing swimming shorts.

    They live among us.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,625 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Russia suggesting OPEC+ cuts production by 1 million barrels a day. The US is also due to stop the draw down from it's reserves in October of about the same amount.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 687 ✭✭✭Subzero3


    Your fully delusional buddy. If Russia can blow up a pipeline undetected then it would blow up the Baltic one, making Nord stream the online show in town. But according to you Russia Blow's up its only leverage. Lol.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Like I said, the one thing that the Kremlin can count on is the swivel-eyed conspiracy theorists among us.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,048 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Are these agents of the kremlin in the room with you right now?

    Next you'll be telling us that Russian losses in Ukraine were also a Kremlin ploy, as are the international sanctions against Russia - all a big ploy by the Russians to undermine themselves 🤣



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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Lads, who's playing the X-Files theme tune on loop?

    Easy marks, tuned to perfection.



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