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Is it time to fix mortgage?

  • 28-09-2022 11:19am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 65 ✭✭


    We have been lucky enough to have a tracker mortgage the last 10 years. With the two ECB increases our rate has now gone up to 2.5%, with another 15 years left and more increases likely should we look at fixing it?



Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 69 ✭✭tallaghtjoe


    What are your fixed rate options?

    Eoin McGee from HTBGWM says you would be mad to go fixed on a tracker mortgage, as the tracker rate is coming from the European central bank, where as the fixed rates are whatever the banks decide.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,789 ✭✭✭✭BattleCorp


    Different situation, I didn't have a tracker. I had my mortgage fixed for the last 5 years and it was expiring in January 2023 so I refixed it for the next 10 years at 3.3%. Not sure if I made the right decision but I like the security provided. I know very little about banking etc. but I don't think we will see low interest rates for the next 5 or so years.

    Regarding the OP's question, I think an awful lot of thinking would need to be done before giving up a tracker.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,131 ✭✭✭Former Former Former


    you would be mad to go fixed on a tracker mortgage

    This advice is rapidly going out of date to be honest.

    If he has a decent bit of equity in the house, then the OP could get a fixed rate in the region of 2.5% fixed for five years.

    Assuming he has a tracker of (ECB rate + 1%), then he's currently paying an interest rate of 2.25%. That is absolutely going to go up to 3% before the end of the year, and even more in 2023. The tracker will be significantly more expensive pretty soon.

    The only reason to stick on a tracker now is if you think interest rates will fall again quite quickly. I would be skeptical of that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 491 ✭✭SwimClub


    In terms of predicting where the interest rates are going you can assume that the people selling the mortgages combined as a market have about as good a handle on that as any individual consumer can have, so you are unlikely to get a deal or good value by fixing and you have to pay a solicitor etc.

    Short term rates will no doubt go up, you can look at longer term rates in the market to get a view on what the market thinks in the future, i.e. that they might come back down (usually after a recession they come down). So the averge over the remaining life of your mortgage is what is factored in to the rates. Can the markets crystal ball get it wrong and you end up getting a good deal or a bad deal by fixing - of course, but you can assume that taking all available info into account at this point in time you are unlikely to get a great deal.

    What you do get is the peace of mind or insurance against the worst case scenario where interest rates go persistently high, that's what you need to decide - not whether it works out cheaper as you can assume that the rates are more or less correctly priced with some built in profit to the issuers, but whether you want to take the risk to avoid the premium you pay by fixing - think of it as an insurance premium.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,789 ✭✭✭✭BattleCorp


    Why would you have to pay a solicitor to fix your mortgage?

    You are right about the other stuff though. You'd need a crystal ball to know what is going to happen in the long term. A change might mean a win in the next 5 years but a loss in the following 10 years. I went with security and fixed for 10 years.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 491 ✭✭SwimClub


    If you change mortgage provider you need a solicitor - the best rates may not be with your current provider. You mentioned fixing at 3.3% for 10 years, you can fix for 7 at 2.7% with BoI if you are new business etc. That's around 4200 euro savings per 100k of mortgage difference over the 7 years, solicitor is 1500-2k. Of course you need to worry about future variable rates by the provider when you come off the fixed rate, you might be paying another 2k to switch in 7 years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,284 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    If it was me I'd fix it for the next 7-10 years at the lowest rate you can find.

    the next few years are going to be rocky, but in 7-10 maybe it will have relaxed back to where it was a year or 2 ago. If it hasn't, then you're coming to the end of your mortgage term and your interest won't be that much anyways.

    I fixed my mortgage for 5 years at 2.55%, but I'm right at the start of the term and this was the longest option open to me.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,568 ✭✭✭Padraig Mor


    I just moved from an ECB + 0.95% tracker this week to a five year fixed at 2.35%. 11 years left of a 30 year mortgage. Had original decided to fix for 10 years at 2.8% but went with lower rate, shorter time in the end - but of a gamble but hopefully pays off.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,789 ✭✭✭✭BattleCorp


    Tis hard to know what to do without a crystal ball. I've changed now anyway so I'll stick with it and see how it goes. I've about 15 years left on the mortgage with a balance of about €160k.



  • Registered Users Posts: 491 ✭✭SwimClub


    Not worth bothering about too much in that case, it's a lot of hassle changing provider. I've a bit more exposure so had to bite the bullet on all of the hassle and fees.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,640 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    A split mortgage here with 50 percent of the total value of it now on a tracker (allbeit) a relatively high margin on it due to porting it a number of years ago.

    We've had it since 06 and the rate was up around 5-6 percent at one point around 2009 or to 2012 - cant remember. Back then the future looked relativelt bleak to many if you had that outlook.

    If it heads that direction again sobeit but I can't see it going there for too long (relative to the term). It's guess work. A lot less term left on the tracker versus the other portion of the mortgage.

    The majority of the experts will no doubt get it wrong again.



  • Registered Users Posts: 65 ✭✭hope80


    Thanks everyone, its such a hard one to call but with everything creeping up so quickly im in a panic on where it will stop, will ring our provider tomorrow and see what could be on the table for us if we fix



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,284 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    Could you save over the next 5 years for a "just in case" lump sum to pay down the bulk of the remaining 6 years?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 561 ✭✭✭Q&A


    Two things:

    It does come down to guessing how high and (more importantly) for how long rates will remain high. This is all guess work.


    What isn't guess work is the impact of rate changes on your finances. It would help to know what your tracker rate and balance is. The smaller the balance/tracker margin the less benefit from switching provider. Likewise low numbers might mean you're better off staying where you are.

    15 years in means any rate increase will be less severe on your repayments than what a similar increase would have been, say 10 years ago.

    I've seen other posters get worked up over not knowing what an ECB rate increase would mean only to be underwhelmed by the reality of the increase in repayments.



  • Registered Users Posts: 181 ✭✭feckthisgenie


    I'm in the exact same position. After the last 2 increases I'm at 2.5%. I'm switching, hopefully fix for 5 years at 2.1 (green rate) or 2.35. I might increase monthly repayments to decrease the term. ECB rates will continue to climb, another increase in October and no sign of stopping. I'm keen to lock in before interest rates increase further



  • Registered Users Posts: 65 ✭✭hope80


    Do you mind me asking which bank you ae with to get that fixed rate, i need to make some calls today



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,568 ✭✭✭Padraig Mor


    Looks like Ulster Bank rates. Only available for current customers moving from trackers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,297 ✭✭✭walterking



    Bad decision imo, but it won't be too costly as your balance will be much lower in 5 years time.

    You will be subject to whatever rate is available in 5 years time and banks take 2 - 2.5% above ecb on average whereas with your tracker you were giving them under 1%.

    Rates will rise and then settle back and in the medium term 3+ years will be 1.5%-2%. This is stated by the ecb.


    For the OP - if your tracker is 1.25% or lower, keep it. If its 1.5% or higher, see what options you have.


    If you are with KBC their fixed rates are 4% for tracker holders, but you can go back to tracker after the fixed rate. For others you lose your tracker, but the fixed rates are lower.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,297 ✭✭✭walterking


    WARNING

    If you have a tracker and you switch to fixed, then with exception of KBC (high fixed rates for trackers), you LOSE your tracker. That puts you at the mercy of variable or regular fixed rates for the remaining term of your mortgage.

    So if you are fixing, do not open yourself to a long period at the mercy of standard rates.

    EG, if 7years left and you take a 5 year fixed, that won't be bad as balance will be very low and rate change won't make a big difference on a small balance, but if 12-15 years left be ULTRA cautious.


    If you do not have a tracker, fix at whatever you can get under 3%



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,789 ✭✭✭✭BattleCorp


    Rates will rise and then settle back and in the medium term 3+ years will be 1.5%-2%. This is stated by the ecb.

    The ECB can't say that for certain. It all depends on how quickly they can put a lid on inflation. If they don't have inflation under control within two years, then they will have to keep interest rates high.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,297 ✭✭✭walterking


    Of course, but that is their stated target and the market is going by that. And its as much as we can go by too.

    Same hysteria is in the UK with tabloids saying 6%-7%. The UK will not go to those levels as it would trigger a phenomenal property crash and very deep recession.

    Most of the inflation is in the energy market and the US dollar strength is also playing its part as so much is traded in dollars. Energy prices have been relatively stable and on a downward trend and that will see those inflationary contributors fall away or even reduce inflation (domestic electricity and gas are forward contracted so these will take longer to fall back)

    If anything, government one off supports like the electricity credits and one off extra payments on low income families and fuel supports (most EU government doing a form of this) is what will ensure inflation will be contained as there's less pressure on wage inflation.

    And the massive German - Middle East multi year deal on liquid gas will most likely mean gas prices will drop substantially in the spring. That will lead to coal and oil dropping. In turn lead to better prospects for the EU and euro strengthening.

    Of course its an 'if', but its becoming the favoured opinion of some of the major investment experts and that's why 10 year - 30 year bonds are far lower than 5 year bonds. And why banks can still give 10 year fixed rates at 3%



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,945 ✭✭✭✭Danzy



    Why wouldn't the UK go to 6%, you bet it would tank the property market and cause a recession but it is not their job to prevent those.


    Their job is inflation control and the pound.


    If they need to defend Sterling from inflation or instability they will do it. Avoiding recessions is not always a good idea long-term.


    Besides the long term fact is that a rate of 6% is not that high.


    Fix, fix, fix.

    You'll not get a mortgage at that rate in the next ten years. Not even close.


    Interest rate rises are only starting and given the depth of the inflation problem in Europe, the weakening Euro making it worse a lot of analysts are thinking that rate rises will have to be more aggressive and further than hoped.


    Whatever they top out at the only certainty is that the years of unbelievably cheap loan rates is over.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,251 ✭✭✭✭Lemlin


    6 years left on mortgage. Current payment has just gone to €961 at 2%. Can anyone tell me if I fix at 2.35 for 5 years what repayment will be? Thanks.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,593 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Try a mortgage calculator.

    https://www.drcalculator.com/mortgage/



  • Registered Users Posts: 181 ✭✭feckthisgenie


    I'm in the process, I'm with BOI but looking at switching to AIB



  • Registered Users Posts: 65 ✭✭hope80


    Just checked ours out and i thought we had 15 years but it turns out we actually have 19 years :( Our tracker is ECB + 1.2%. Its all such a minefield



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