Snooker Season 2022/23

Sweet Talkin Romeo · 30-09-2022 12:04pm

prediction: Selby wins 5-3

gormdubhgorm · 30-09-2022 12:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119684638#Comment_119684638

Allen already let Selby back in after first chance. Looking ominous if Selby is given chances from errors. 1-0 Selby already ton up.

Sweet Talkin Romeo · 30-09-2022 12:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119684684#Comment_119684684

Yep - that was one of them 'unforgiveable' black ball (98-99 out of a 100 expected pot success) miss,, Selby punished him bigtime for it,,

Hendry be raging if he was on comms, but the other two lads more circumspect,,

#I'd be happy to pot that black 65/70 times out of a hundred meself - absent any positional intentions 😂

And Allen barely threatens jaws on that first long red attempt at start of this frame (frame two) ,, looking ominous - Selby's not pushing the boat out at all here; likely he won't need to,,

early doors tho 😊

Sweet Talkin Romeo · 30-09-2022 12:22pm

The Jester is always happy to banter whene'er he has the 'whip hand' - the cute fecker 😆

gormdubhgorm · 30-09-2022 12:49pm

Jayus Allen won a ‘Selby frame’ ballsy last yellow 1-1.

Genghis · 30-09-2022 1:04pm

Allen motoring now with a 143 clearance to go 2-1. Shaping up to be a very good match.

Genghis · 30-09-2022 1:30pm

I see ITV have a stat of 96% Positional Success for Mark Allen. Wonder how that is calculated, i.e. is it simply how many shots are followed by a subsequent pot, or is someone watching each shot and assessing how good position is?

Sweet Talkin Romeo · 30-09-2022 1:56pm

don't know how positional success is quantified, nor how they calculate safety success percentages :(

i suppose the odd time it gets discussed, i aint watching 😂

Joe_ Public · 30-09-2022 2:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119685153#Comment_119685153

That's interesting. Never seen a stat given for position before. I think it has to be someone just assessing every shot and making a judgement, otherwise it's hard to see what value would be in it.

Spiderpig92 · 30-09-2022 2:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119685300#Comment_119685300

Safety success based on whether the opponent pots a ball on the next shot - if you play 10 safeties and opponent pots 5 from them safety success is 50%

Joe_ Public · 30-09-2022 2:04pm

As regards safety stats, it is a bit vague how these are calculated. I recall Neil Robertson discussing this on twitter and claiming that a safety was deemed to be successful once the cue ball passed the baulk line. That doesn't seem to be a very thorough guide, but that's what robbo claimed anyway.

Spiderpig92 · 30-09-2022 2:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119685352#Comment_119685352

Don't think I would agree with Neil there - you could leave your opponent welded to the top cushion and they could still roll one in - wouldn't call that overly successful!

Joe_ Public · 30-09-2022 2:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119685469#Comment_119685469

That's true but the same applies to the other method. You could play a great safety and player could fluke a pot off it and yet that'll go down as a negative. And vice versa too. I think the only nailed on way is to have one person making a subjective judgement on each shot, but it would require some knowledge. I know Ian Burns does stats for eurosport but i dont know what criteria he uses. Would be good to know.

Sweet Talkin Romeo · 30-09-2022 2:36pm

surely there's got to be a lot of subjectivity involved regarding safety success - after a quality safety - esp with a few/a lot of reds on table - the opponent can always knock in a 3/4 out of 10 long pot

Selby about to tie it up here - Allen be wondering how he lost with ~40pts lead, and the remaining reds not in a great position either

Joe_ Public · 30-09-2022 2:37pm

This is where robbo said it. He sounds pretty sure but doesn't mean he's definitely right of course.

https://twitter.com/nr147/status/1332034273596026880?s=20&t=H6VBF1dQtlUgMhdCw6XR1g

Joe_ Public · 30-09-2022 2:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119685500#Comment_119685500

Yeah, if you were judging it on your opponents next shot, your stats are going to be skewered by, among other things, whether you're playing Judd Trump, say, or Alfie Burden! But stats are never very definitive anyway, like in golf you could hit a drive 30 yards wide, see it hit a tree, bounce back into middle of fairway and see it recorded a perfect drive!

Sweet Talkin Romeo · 30-09-2022 3:04pm

something to shoot the breeze/have an argument over anyway, them enigmatic 'stats' 😃

Sweet Talkin Romeo · 30-09-2022 3:29pm

'Bottle' WD Mark Allen 😊

that were great rest shot earlier in frame, and he got prime position too - frame/matchwinning shot for me !

gormdubhgorm · 30-09-2022 3:34pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119684638#Comment_119684638

You got the scoreline right, just picked the wrong winner! I didn't see Allen winning this to be honest. If he can play like that why doesn't he win more silverware? Bit of a mystery.

Joe_ Public · 30-09-2022 3:35pm

Good win for him. Thought he was going to get sucked into the selby vortex there, a deep black hole from which few emerge, but seemed to rediscover his form and confidence to pull away and finish it. Hope he can sustain this long term, such a good talent and shotmaker when he keeps it together.

Sweet Talkin Romeo · 30-09-2022 3:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119685749#Comment_119685749

😁 was well wrong me - no harm; coast looks clear now - not too many dangers i reckon 🤣

~27% long pot success from Selby; a telling stat that one 🙂

Sweet Talkin Romeo · 30-09-2022 9:09pm

Standard is chronic (for this stage of big comp anyhow) in this Noppon/JJ clash here,, look forward to stats afterwards - if i'm still awake 😂

be guessing pots percentage no bigger than low 80s - possibly even in the 70s,,

4-3 to Noppon - went 2-0 up early on, and tho Jamie (who looks fair seasoned for 34 - hard life p'raps 😃) levelled at 2 apiece and 3-3, he's never been ahead

Sweet Talkin Romeo · 30-09-2022 9:21pm

Ryan Day thru 5-4; finishes with a 120+ break,,

meanwhile on TV table, the balls are awkward as, the standard is getting worse, and Fouldsy has just given up on the excuses: it was ''Nerves'' , ''Feeling it'' , ''Pressure'' ect, ect,,,... don't think he's paid enough to keep at ye olde damage limitation regarding the cack on show 😂

frame must be on about 15 mins, and score is 7pts to 10 in favour of Jones 😂 better than the LLS all the same; not that there's a high bar to compete with!😃

Arthur Daley · 30-09-2022 9:30pm

While the pressure and tension line is overused, I think it is fair to say pressure is a factor in a match like this. Two players ranked around 30 or 40 going for a place in the semi finals on tv.

Saengkham is fairly smacking that ball now.

Joe_ Public · 30-09-2022 9:31pm

Think this match is a classic case of players who get up to the 30s or even 20s in the rankings and get stuck, lacking the extra gear and maybe the bottle to make the big leap into top 16 or lower. Fair few of them around.

Sweet Talkin Romeo · 30-09-2022 9:33pm

Noppon compiles a break of 30 odd, then breaks down,, three reds left, and Saengkham is 46-18 up

Sweet Talkin Romeo · 30-09-2022 10:04pm

SF day tomorrow

Ryan Day v Robbie Williams

Mark Allen v Noppon

ITV4 has had enough it seems, with two of the other channels in the mix

SF1 on ITV @ 12.45 , and the evening SF on ITV3 (i think)

50/50 that one, at least, will be entertaining 😊

Arthur Daley · 01-10-2022 1:32pm

Mark Allen cruising to the final. I'd nearly get more points against him.

Sweet Talkin Romeo · 01-10-2022 1:43pm

Advance prediction:

Mark Allen beats Ryan Day in Final 9 - (between 3 & 5 ) ,, ie with a few frames to spare

4-0 at min against Noppon & a v healthy lead in frame 5 for the NI man,, don't think there be too many comps going with an open draw going forward,,

Allen has a very good safety game in this comp so far [from the little i've seen 🤣] ,, could be a WC contender for once!!

Sweet Talkin Romeo · 01-10-2022 1:50pm

WD Ken!!

called that possible in off to opposite middle, like a mofo!! - even Angles be proud of that one 😋

5-0

Sweet Talkin Romeo · 01-10-2022 1:57pm

decided to back Mark early for WC

looks to have a solid all-round , not pushing boat out too much , game... a changed man imo - looks to mean business!! and fair play to him 🤣🤣

Win and EW (2 plcs) @ 28/1

Sweet Talkin Romeo · 01-10-2022 2:19pm

last prediction - we'll be hearing plenty of: "A new AND improved Mark Allen" from comms et pundits etc,, 😁

only a shot or two away from a 6-1 victory (out of position atm - puts brown safe, as is 64 ahead with 67 remaining) - hon the Irishman !!

Arthur Daley · 01-10-2022 2:41pm

An exhibition frame on ITV between Ken and Hendry. Nice one

Sweet Talkin Romeo · 01-10-2022 3:12pm

Was gonna watch that, but it clashed with a big h'cap at Ascot 🤣

by my calculations it kicks off around 4.33 on the ITV+1 , so will watch it there

Sweet Talkin Romeo · 01-10-2022 3:34pm

Watching on +1 ,, showed most of the usual stats, to include 'Long Pot Success' - didn't see 'Pot Success' tho - strangely enuf, hmmm 😏 be thinking a 'conspiracy theory' here myself,, could be they were thinking of the poor strike rate on potting last night 😃

Sweet Talkin Romeo · 01-10-2022 3:41pm

Henry's still got it !

Sweet Talkin Romeo · 01-10-2022 7:24pm

ya were one ball away from 3-1 up Robbie - ya almost threw it away! - almost 🤣

nice cup of tea now for the englishman 😊

Joe_ Public · 01-10-2022 10:12pm

Don't blame Williams playing on needing 4 snookers there given it was a decider, but he only needed 2 in F9 and stayed in his seat. Little odd that, maybe. Allen has to be very warm favourite tomorrow, underachieved over his career but not half as much as Ryno and just looks more confident and composed this week than he has for a while. Fancy him with at least a couple to spare tbh.

Joe_ Public · 02-10-2022 2:04pm

One or two misses creeping in but Ryno proving me wrong here so far, turned up to compete and well worth his lead. A session lead would be very useful for him if he could manage it.

Sweet Talkin Romeo · 02-10-2022 7:08pm

think Allen knows he's gonna win this now,,, well settled, and generally on top overall.. should pull ahead now; think he wins with a couple of frames to spare

hon the Irishman !

Sweet Talkin Romeo · 02-10-2022 7:26pm

best of seven now, with the mid-session interval upcoming

that was a poor prediction above 🤣

Sweet Talkin Romeo · 02-10-2022 7:57pm

🤣🤣 twice now the player had to remind the ref about the 'three miss' warning 😃

Allen, a couple of frames back, and Ryan Day, just there now

Joe_ Public · 02-10-2022 9:04pm

That was a shocker from allen there, after playing some mesmerising safety too. Think there'll be one or two twists yet though, Ryan the better player tonight but not exactly in his dna to get these things done without the nerve ends being shredded!

Arthur Daley · 02-10-2022 9:11pm

It'd be the biggest win of Day's career with the extra invitations that it opens up.

Certainly looks like his bottle is holding up so far, based on that blue to green pocket he took on there.

Joe_ Public · 02-10-2022 9:21pm

He's held it well together so far. Am thinking back to his interview last night where he joked he'd prefer to concede the final, go for a round of golf instead and watch the Manchester derby after. Maybe the psychology worked and he didn't put too much pressure on himself, been able to play his game. Still has to finish it though, allen not playing well but never usually gives it up without a fight.

Arthur Daley · 02-10-2022 9:35pm

getting tense now

Joe_ Public · 02-10-2022 9:44pm

Really called that match wrong and happy i did cos he's a real nice fella and a great talent too, just never scaled the heights he was capable of, but there's still time! Not 100% on this but think that might get him back into top 16 for first time in a while, or certainly very close to it anyway.

Arthur Daley · 02-10-2022 9:49pm

He is back in the top 16 alright, a big win, he seems to have been around a long time. It is nice to see these stories every so often, encourages the others too, that every dog can have his Day.

Genghis · 02-10-2022 9:54pm

Rob Walker and Dave Hendon mentioned he is back in top 16 with the points. While I wanted Allen to win, I am delighted for him, a good guy is Ryan. Fantastic rewards for him, e.g. Champion of Champion, cazoo series, etc

Joe_ Public · 02-10-2022 10:12pm

I think it shows how the random draw format for this event is a good thing. While he played well and beat some good players, Day only faced two players inside the top 50 to reach the final so draw gave him a decent chance and he made the most of it. The top 16 get so many privileges, it's good to see the system working for those lower down, including too the likes of Noppon and Robbie Williams.

Snooker Season 2022/23

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