Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Good thread on Russia's Constitution Court approval of the annexations:-

Yes just like the attack on Kyiv was a feint, the Russians are just retreating until Steiner counterattacks and Putin's wonderweapons are ready for a devastating counter-strike.

How could they, when they know that they and their family and everything they've ever known will be vaporised, if it happens.

I think you're getting caught up on the "rules" around membership, which the members can change at their whim.

IF NATO feel they can have Ukraine as a member without russia being able to retaliate against it or go no further, I've no doubt it will happen, they may neglect putting boots on the ground in Ukraine, or maybe just East Ukraine, but russia has shown it's weakness in this conflict, NATO will be emboldened by it.

You only have to look at the drip feed of more advanced weaponry making it into Ukrainian hands as an example, what they are getting now would have been absolutely unthinkable back in January, russia have been shown to be a 1 trick pony with their responses (i.e. vague nuclear threats) and are in a very fragile state similar to the end of the USSR (conscription could end up being the straw), they will find it hard to navigate out of it unless the battle on the ground changes significantly.

The main danger is a trump like idiot getting into power in the US and rolling over for putin again, but that seems unlikely, even for the GOP.

Thanks for that. This seems to have been a reaction by Russia to Montenegro applying for membership in the first place. I wonder why is it that Montenegro took that first step....

Ok. I had a look at the wikipedia page of the country. So it seems that it was an initiative of the President, Milo Đukanović, who set out goals to join both NATO and the EU as a way of pivoting the country toward the west. The NATO plan "divided the country" especially since NATO had bombed Montenegro itself in 1999 leading to the deaths of 500 people. It linked to the following Guardian article as well that discusses the NATO ascension and the alleged coup attempt:

Interesting tidbit in there is that NATO were keen to have Montenegro join as they would then control the Mediterranean coastline from Gibraltar to Syria (you could extend that even further and say they control it from Syria to Kaliningrad)

Well I wouldn't expect you to have a problem with dumb, sensationalist, unfounded rumours being posted for the 400th time given the standard of your own contributions, but some of us would rather people posted either reliable sources for news or none at all.

Not at all. The simple truth is, we don't know. Ukraine and NATO intelligence assets are incredibly good at keeping their mouths shut with respect to troop movements, Ukranian losses, aviation operations ( the fact that Ukranian aircraft are still allowed to operate is still a mystery to me. I would have thought that their Forward Operating Bases and subsequent support infrastructure would have been vapourised by cruise missles in the first months of the war) and Special Forces operations. Only NATO and Ukranian commanders really know what's going on. Remember, the West began training and establishing NATO compatible secure Data-links just after the 2014 invasion, turning what was essentially a paramilitary organisation into a NATO-spec, asymmetrical fighting force far removed from what the Russians were used to fighting in Syria and elsewhere. I was in Syria in 2010 and 2009 and I can tell you, even then the infrastructure in every aspect was a shambles well before Russia arrived after the Arab Spring. Russia is fighting Nato-lite and Putin should have known this prior to the invasion. He also knows that if things get out of hand, and NATO have to finally step in, then Russias military will he reduced to a token defence force. Everything that is currently flying, driving or sailing outside of mother Russia will be fair game. I certainly would not like to be a sailor in the Black Sea. Special mention goes to the Starlink system that proved to be invaluable, un-hackable, completely modular and independent of a ground-based network and fits in the backpack of any soldier, running on batteries. I'm not a fan of Musk, the person, but he and his engineers knocked it out of the park with this one!

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@greenpilot

He should have, but he didn't. How much of that was down to a failure in military intelligence and how much was down to a failure in Putin's sanity will be another one of those things that can be endlessly picked through in historical military documentaries (presuming we don't all get blown up).

Seems strange that the only people posing for photos in Lyman are Ukrainian soldiers, and no residents are to be seen anywhere.

In the west we get a simplistic narrative that most of the populations in the Eastern and southern regions are committed Ukrainians trapped in an open air prison by the Russians but it's much more complicated than that.

There'll be some places with mostly Ukrainians and others mostly Russian leaning.

Probably something like Northern Ireland in 1922. To outsiders who are mostly ignorant it looks simple, a country having part of it's territory stolen and annexed.

Of course, it's not that simple once you get in to the weeds.

Wasn't Cyprus joining the EU part related to the UNs Annan Plan to try and end the conflict (and obviously it failed to do so)? It certainly wasn't considered the status quo anyway.

It is also the reason why the EU adopted the Protocol (No. 10) on Cyprus and the Green Line Regulation due to joining as a de facto divided island.

I never said it was a legal procedure or made any legal arguments to that effect, I acknowledged the Study was the agreed position made by members of NATO and can be changed by concession of all members of NATO and of course that means it is purely political, it is however equally important to note that any change in requirements to be met in joining must be unanimous.

As noted above I never said it was a legal requirement to join NATO and I never said it was a contract or any sort of treaty requirement, rather as I noted (probably more than once) it was a collectively agreed and published document of the unanimous requirements for membership, any change even for something as simple as policy still requires concession from all states, the requirements for joining NATO are no different, anything else would be contrary to the provisions of the Washington Treaty.

I think you're conflating 2 different things.

Ukraine IS having part of its territory stolen from it. Hopefully not for long. Nobody but pro Putinists can dispute this.

But you are right that the populations in the east are very split in their allegiances and the comparison to NI is not without validity. Which is why lasting peace, no matter what happens, is probably a long way off.