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Will Ulster bank do deals or make a huge loss on Offset Flexible Tracker Mortgages.

  • 03-10-2022 1:20pm
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,460 ✭✭✭


    Has anyone any information on how Ulster bank will manage to get out of not giving customers a write down on these mortgages. It looks like no other banks want anything to do with them and for good reason with the way interest rates are rising. If anyone has savings anywhere near the mortgage amount surely as interest rates rise, Ulster bank will be making a huge loss on these mortgages. These mortgages are also slowing down Ulster banks retreat from the Irish mortgage sector. Could they do what Dankse bank did a few years back?

    Post edited by Jim2007 on


«1345

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,636 ✭✭✭dotsman


    I don't understand. Why do you think ulster Bank would make a (huge) loss on these as interest rates rise?

    Also, I would doubt there are many customers who would have savings anywhere close to their loan balance,so imagine that this would very much be an edge case.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,460 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Well with the savings/current account offsetting the amount left to pay on the mortgage it effectively means that Ulster bank is losing more as interest rates go up. So if someone had 100k of a mortgage and 100k in a savings account and offsetting the customer is paying zero on interest. So as interest rates go higher the cost of servicing these mortgage increases. It also leaves it less desirable for other banks to buy so if they want to exit the Irish market cleanly they will have to do something.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,636 ✭✭✭dotsman


    But is it not being serviced for free by the free money in the savings account? How is it costing the bank anything? The customer is literally funding their own loan.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,460 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Well think about that for minute what are our current interest rates for savings accounts (not much) it will be no where near what the interest rates on repayments of a mortgage are, so they will be paying out more on covering the interest rates on a mortgage and this is increasing and will probably be up at over 4% by this time next year, savings interest rates are usually a lot lower than mortgage interest rates....So if Ulster paid less than 4% at the time of the mortgage drawdown then they will be losing money and if they roll over debt (on an ongoing basis) to new interest rates as some times happens in business they will be losing even more. Also can Ulster bank withdraw completely from the country that it still has business within so there could be the additional cost of having to keep infrastructure and employees working here.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,636 ✭✭✭dotsman


    But, if the customer owes 100K, and is giving the bank 100K in savings for free, there is no debt that Ulster needs to cover.

    If a bank lends 100K, it needs to source that 100K from somewhere (and pay relevant interest on it)

    If a bank lends 100K, but the customer gives 25K in savings to offset that, then the bank needs to source 75K from somewhere (and pay relevant interest on it)

    If a bank lends 100K, but the customer gives 100K in savings to offset that, then the bank doesn't need to source additional funds. The bank doesn't lose anything.

    Likewise, in sourcing additional funds, the banks have access to as much (very close to) free money as they want, as customers keep storing their money in zero (or close to zero) interest rate savings/deposit accounts. Banks have too much of this "free" money on their books at the moment (hence why interest rates aren't rising for savings/deposits)

    I just don't see why you think Ulster is losing anything from this (other than opportunity cost)



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,460 ✭✭✭fliball123


    They would be losing on the differential of the borrowing cost of the mortgage amount compared to borrowing now for new lending which is going up. While yeah the money can be loaned out, but the bank will need to keep appropriate reserves. Also there will be an outlay to keep a continued presence in Ireland with these accounts.

    So say you have 200k mortgage that you got 1.75% above the ECB and Ulster bank got the cash from the ECB at say .5%. The bank is making on this even if the rate goes up. Roll onto today and you have 100k left on your mortgage and 100k in the bank account offsetting, your paying the bank 0% on a mortgage that cost .5% to fund. So every month on that product they are effectively losing money at a rate of .5%

    Interest rates are rising due to inflation and for no other reason its an attempt to bring down inflation which will in turn mean less money moving around the economy.

    Proof is in the pudding these offset tracker mortgages are the only ones that Ulster cant get rid of so there must be something within the sums that are not adding up correctly and stopping other banks buying them I mean they are leaving Ireland now 18 months as of Feb 2021 and still no takers for these offset tracker mortgages & offset current/savings accounts.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,365 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    I don't know where you get the idea that the can't get rid of them.... The loans will be packaged up and sold off to some fund or other. An important part of constructing such a product will be the need to put in some good loans to make it sweet for the buyer. That means that they will not do deals with people who have the potential to pay off a major part the amount outstanding since they will need to be able to toss those loans into the mix.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,460 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Then why cant they sell them, 18 months on and absolutely nada from Ulster as to what is happening with this particular mortgage product, the mortgage cant just be packaged off as the offset facility account needs to be catered for which saves the mortgage holder a lot if not all the interest on the mortgage. They would be paying a sh1t load of cash like BOI did with the last tracker scandal. As far as I can see they will be making a big loss if any of these mortgage holders has cash in their accounts that offsets a high % of the mortgage.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,071 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    They are not going to get into individual sales. It'll be a job lot. No way in hell will they let an individual have a buy back at a discount. You're trying to make a case for it but, to be honest, it sounds like you have a vested interest and are trying to construct an argument in favour of it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,460 ✭✭✭fliball123


    I do have a vested interest I just see the expense on the bank and I can point to Danske bank that did individual deals so there is precedent. I cant see a bank taking a risk on these unless there is a huge discount.



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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,365 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    They are closing the company down, the loss provisions have already been made, but there is nothing stopping you from trying to negotiate with then and let us know how goes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,460 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Ah I am easy breezy jim I have the amount there offsetting the amount left to be paid off the mortgage so as interest rate go higher it will cost them more to service my mortgage. Will see how it plays out if they have a game plan for the mortgage product I have



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,598 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Couldn't UB simply keep these mortgages on their books?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,460 ✭✭✭fliball123


    They could it would all depend on how they finance if they continually roll over borrowings to new interest rates then the mortgage becomes more expensive to service as interest rates go higher and then they would also have the extra costs of having to keep staff and infrastructure in Ireland



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,598 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    They could be serviced from UK sites.

    My old UB mortgage call centre was in Scotland.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,365 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    Very unlikely, they can't offer services to citizens in an EU country, without an EU banking licence. And you can't be a bit licensed, so it probably would not be worth the effort. They might have a legal entity in another EU state though or perhaps the new British government will finally reach an agreement about the provision of financial services....



  • Registered Users Posts: 3 Zippywalk37
    mr


    Anyone got any new information on this? We don't want to move bank accounts until we find out where it's going (so we will keep all our banking in the same account) Just hope to find out how long we might be waiting.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 561 ✭✭✭Q&A


    How long might you be waiting? The answer is how long is left in your mortgage.

    As it stands no one is buying this mortgage book so Ulster won't be able to close it on you.

    Don't worry about all the noise about account closures and the like. Unless there is a significant development you're with Ulster for the foreseeable future.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,297 ✭✭✭walterking


    I really don't know where people get this idea that mortgages of any type lose money for the banks.

    For a VERY SHORT period of about 3 months back in about 2012 when funding rates for Irish banks were far higher than the ecb, banks lost money on trackers. The ecb then started their bond buying program and they made profit from that day onwards. The media of course had sensationalist headlines, but of course didn't give the same headlines when it changed

    The reason the offset book has not been sold is that it is small, it has conditions and the margin is not great if someone has decent deposits - but its is NOT loss making.


    Basically the other banks see it as something that requires too much work and hassle for too little return.

    Ulster will probably have to offer a sweetener, but they are very unlikely to spend time offering little discounts to individual holders



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,460 ✭✭✭fliball123


    They will lose money as they will have to keep resources open in the republic of Ireland while people have accounts with them. Also the offset mechanism means that if people have savings and anyone hanging on will have savings otherwise they would of locked in a fixed term amount at a lower rate you can see get under 3% for 5 years. So anyone left will be costing Ulster bank cash.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,345 ✭✭✭phormium


    There is not a loss on the rate for offsets but there is a lot of management that comes with them if you are trying to sell them on to someone. It's not just the mortgage but also the current account and the linking of them, no bank has a similar product so a bank proposing to buy them would need to set up some new IT or whatever is needed to operate them.

    If UB needs to keep them and manage themselves then they need a means of still managing a current account with resultant direct debits/debit card etc.

    Add to that someone like me who pays zero interest on mortgage because of offset but still wants access to the draw down facility amount should I want it or might want to transfer it to a new property, great prospect for a new bank!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,205 ✭✭✭cruizer101


    How many offset mortgages would they have at this stage? I can't imagine it makes up a significant part of their loan book, not sure how huge a loss it would be.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,345 ✭✭✭phormium


    Between 4 and 5 thousand.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,365 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    The bank will cease to exist and there will be no license for them to operate in Ireland so that is not even a possibility.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,297 ✭✭✭walterking


    I really don't understand what you are trying to say. I think you don't fully understand them.

    You also seem to assume everyone with one has deposits the size of their mortgage.


    Remember, as your balance decreases, the max amount of deposit also decreases.


    The bank is never losing money and I would suspect that the overall offset deposit is less than 10% of the value of mortgage debt.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 561 ✭✭✭Q&A


    What you say makes sense for an Ulster Bank that was a going concern that could take advantage of economies of scale. but if it sells off all its other assets its fixed costs are spread over a much smaller pool of assets. An individual loan could be profitable but when you add in fixed costs related to regulation, compliance and whatever else go into running a bank could make it loss making .

    There is no point offering individuals deals unless all agree and that's unlikely to happen. If their hands are tied until all of these are off their balance sheet they just need to offer them at a greater discount to another bank. Take the hit and be gone. My guess is they didn't want to impact the price they would get on their normal mortgage book so will wait for the transfer to be completed before marking these down at a discount.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,297 ✭✭✭walterking


    On a little checking, there maybe be something offered especially if the cost of managing these is high. They don't lose on the rate at the momnet as its just a small extra on their books. But with all these having t&c's of first active rather than UB, and there being very few of them, no bank will touch them - even at a discount - as the work is just too much for little return

    Danske offered these too and gave a further discount on the rate and passed the management to Pepper (as low as 0.25 over ecb!). Some did get offered a discount to settle the account immediately



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,460 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Then they have an issue of having business in an EU country and no license to operate , when does their license expire does anyone know



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,460 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Well mine covers what I have on the mortgage and Ireland does have record savings so I would imagine a lot would have a good chunk covering their mortgage in savings.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,297 ✭✭✭walterking


    I don't think they are going to exit the market entirely. They may keep their license and gradually wind down some accounts but effectively be closed as a retail bank.

    Danske bank still operated here for several years after they closed their retail arm (they still operate at a private client and corporate level)

    I suspect that they will hand management to Pepper at some point in the future, but I can't see any change in the next 2 years.


    Offset mortgages were popular in the UK. In mid 2000's they accounted for 7% of the UK market. First active offered them until 2007, so there could be a substantial number of account holders out there and therefore more likely that UB will let them play out via some service agreement with Pepper or similar


    So I wouldn't be counting on any discount



This discussion has been closed.
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