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Ireland needs to invest in a modern Nuclear Power Plant?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,952 ✭✭✭Shoog


    What's going on with those Korean nuclear builders which are been held up as an example of how it can be done on time and on budget ?

    No need to wait for the answer - they have been using knock off parts compromising safety.



  • Registered Users Posts: 604 ✭✭✭TheWonderLlama




  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    And yet no one died. Which is more than can be said for these two unfortunates.




  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    You haven't even the slightest clue as to the costs involved or the real difference.

    The ESB says that 30 GW off offshore wind capacity is needed to enable a net zero grid using H2. The UK price for building OSW is €2.838 billion per GW. So the cost will be €85 Billion - not including the many billions required for the H2 part, just to keep it simple.

    Lets say that future grid has a peak load of 8 GW - that OSW solution costs you €85 Billion, whereas an 8 GW NPP would cost you €33.16 Billion

    I haven't even started on the 2-3 times greater lifespan of nuclear for that same cost or the astronomical costs of mainatainance for OSW (1.2-1.5c per kWh!) or the billiions required for the H2 part of the OSW plan, I don't even need to go there with a basic starting point of a yawning €52 Billion chasm between the cost of OSW and nuclear.

    For disclosure, I'm using mid April 2022 £-€ exchange rates as the current situation isn't normal.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    This scandal did not involve 'fake' parts, it involved falsified test documentaion. The parts didn't fail, but all were replaced anyway.

    Sure it's not a great look, but it happened 8 years ago and that stuff and the culture that allowed it appears to be fixed.

    Nuclear power has an incredibly good safety record and a US study actually attributed it with saving far more lives than had ever been lost.

    It's on par with wind and solar for overall safety, but hype away with the scare tactics and anti-nuclear BS.

    By the way, the Norwegians are very likely about to close a wind farm in the north of the country because it sheds so much dangerous falling bits that locals won't even go for a walk on the mountin due to the danger of being hit.

    Since 2020, at least seven objects from the wind turbines at the Ånstadblåheia wind farm near Sortland have fallen to the ground in strong winds. The Norwegian Directorate of Water and Energy (NVE) is taking the situation seriously.

    In fact, NVE has given formal notice that the facility will be closed if it cannot be repaired by 10 October. “We record repeated falling objects from the turbines linked to strong winds. This should not happen,” said NVE section manager Anne Johanne Kråkenes to NRK.

    Siemens and Fluor have been fined £650,000 after a worker was killed and another seriously injured during construction of an offshore wind farm.

    The incident happened when a team of engineers were loading wind turbine blades onto a sea barge for delivery to Greater Gabbard, off the Suffolk coast, on 21 May 2010.

    During the loading of wind turbine components at Pakeston Quay, Harwich, a 2.11 tonne part of the blade transport arrangement fell off, crushing and fatally injuring one worker and seriously injuring another




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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,409 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    The Rough Gas Storage Facility had a capacity of 41TWh ( comparable to Ireland's annual electrical demand) , it was closed to save £750m over 10 years. They are scrambling to reopen it.

    £75m a year is just 2.5% of the cost increase for Hinkley-C so far this year.

    How is nuclear going to compete with cheap renewables and cheap storage ?



    "why aren't there any wind and solar submarines"

    AFAIK the sun doesn't shine at night or if you go too deep and IIRC it isn't always windy underwater.

    Nuclear has a high power density which is only useful for portable applications.


    The problems with real SMR's are not technical. If after 70 years they still haven't commercialised them then they won't any time soon.

    After the 1973 oil crisis nuclear had a chance to shine. It didn't.

    What has changed since then is that renewables costs have fallen further than anyone then could have imagined. And will continue fall as lab proved tech is commercialised.

    You can't compare today's nuclear costs with renewables. It takes 10 years to roll out nuclear power ( cf. UK, USA, France, Finland etc. etc.) and another 20-30 years for a nuclear plant to pay off construction costs and interest payments and that's with a guaranteed price and guaranteed demand. It's not real economics because there is no reason to give nuclear a guarantee because it is not reliable. It will let you down. Unless you have a grid that is flexible to handle renewables and if you have that then there is no use case for nuclear. inherently



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,409 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Link please for the 30GW as it's close to an order of magnitude greater than any 2030 plans I'm aware of.


    H2 doesn't need billions. A gigawatt a year electrolyser factory costs £30m, £1.5 per watt for hydrolyse plant and facilities for trucks in a port. Also you can take all year long to produce the H2 needed for the few weeks of calm dark weather. And you only need the H2 to make up the difference from interconnectors, biomass, CHP, storage, waste to energy, solar, wind, (tidal and geothermal are likely over the next 60 years) etc. and the 20% emissions we can use until 2030 and 1% reduction per year after that until 2050.


    If anyone was offering 8GW of nuclear for €33Bn up front and at a reasonable unit price the UK would have bought 6 anytime from 2010 onwards. EDF offered a price of €3Bn per reactor ( looks the same as the price you suggest) and the negotiations went on for years because EDF wanted over £130/MWh. A price so high you'd wonder why they didn't just offer to build it for free. Really.

    I'll assume you are cherry picking high maintenance costs, but Hinkley-C is costing over ten times that price for 35 years. That leaves you a saving of 90% to spend on the fuel for OSW (approx £0) or storage facilities (41TWh at £0.075Bn/year)


    Nuclear longevity is not an asset. Germany, Italy, Japan and Ukraine have lost (or will lose) ALL nuclear power due to politics. You can't depend on nuclear which is why there is no justification in paying a premium price for it.

    Nuclear longevity is a selling point to lock you into a hire purchase agreement that you can't get out of when something better shows up.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,409 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    If the symbol has background then the reactor is offline. For a variety of reasons. But mostly because they were given 10 year extensions when they should not because maintenance wasn't up to scratch.

    The modern one is Flamaville. It's not operational yet. Technically it's not modern as it's been under construction that long.

    Take all restart dates with a dose of salt. Nuclear isn't that reliable.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui




  • Registered Users Posts: 29,073 ✭✭✭✭end of the road



    85 billion (it won't be that cost for off shore wind in reality) not by a long shot, is still miles cheaper then nuclear as you need 3 to 4 reactors which will cost once all costs are taken into account 120 to 160 billion, and that's just the construction cost.

    a nuclear reactor will last 30 to 40 years but it's costs will continue for hundreds of years while renewables cost get cheaper as technology improves and the specific cost lasts for as long as the installation exists and is working, with new and lower costs coming when a new installation replaces the old one.

    ticking a box on a form does not make you of a religion.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,409 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight



    Looks like this one @ 17:00 and refers to 2050 providing electricity AND using it for heating AND transport. (Replacing both gas and oil , and fertilizer production and exporting etc. etc.) the longer timeframe and greater scope explains the order of magnitude more renewables.

    Very simply it's us meeting our 2030 target and then keeping on adding renewables at the same rate for another 20 years.

    21TWh storage is half the Rough Gas Storage Facility, so yes would need to be higher pressure and/or larger volume to accommodate hydrogen. But only about 50% larger as has a third the energy density of methane. Or using more storage facilities.


    The outputs are 106TWh so 12GW on average so 8GW won't be anywhere near enough you'd need at least twice that = 16GW. Renewables will be falling in price by 5-7% at each global capacity doubling from economies of scale.


    At £92.50/MWh and an average output at 90% of maximum capacity, Hinkley C will earn £81bn over 35 years

    That was in 2016 and build costs have shot up, there's been years of delays during which imported fuel was burnt and the price has now reached £118.59/MWh (August '22) by the magic of CPI. The earning in today's money are £103.84Bn for 3.2GW that can fall off the grid without warning. (by my reckoning that means 16GW of nuclear would need to be supported by earnings of £519Bn , not counting any other grid costs)

    €85Bn for wind looks cheap by comparison, even if you add a scaremongering 1c maintenance and €10-20% refurbish costs at 20 years



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Hinkley hasn't been built. I used a recently built plant for the costing. We have nothing further to discuss.

    Oh, and since you think that maintainance cost is BS I cherry picked or made up:

    I believe the maintainace costs are also mentioned in the ESB video. You can't win this one or spin in it into not existing.

    Post edited by cnocbui on


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,409 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    The link you posted refers to 1997-2001 for 0.6MW turbines. Ancient history. And at 0.7c way under your earlier figures.


    The fact that Hinkley hasn't been built proves that nuclear has no role in our 2030 requirements. There will be further delays and cost increases as sure as night follows day.

    Over a period of 35 years wind will cost €85Bn to install (your figures) + 1c per unit maintenance to run (your figures, for a small turbine from 20 years ago) + max €17bn for mid life refurb (20% if they replace all the gubbins) In reality I expect the costs to be a lot lower.

    Nuclear will cost £519Bn over the same period. Index linked guarantee means there is no way to reduce that cost.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,230 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    So in 25 years we'll have our first nuclear reactor.

    And in 26 our first nuclear disaster.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭xxxxxxl


    cool maybe my bad but not sure if it would pass either. fission splitting Fusion combining. Would the legal person argue a difference. And would TD's understand the difference or a lay person.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    In that case we should play around with thousands of tons of hydrogen instead, right? Because that's far safer for a nation of clumsy, technical incompetents to be messing with.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭xxxxxxl


    I'm a blow in as stated on other threads. I have not come across any other nation this cynical in their own abilities. You would swear the entire electricity grid is duct taped. Yes Ireland has huge issues with overspending. We all know this but stuff built tends to work. As far as i know Irish Engineers are sought far and wide for their expertise. Mind boggles sometimes me looking in. 🤔



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,519 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves




  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    If you use actual figures for offshore wind projects that have recently been completed, like East Anglia One (2020), off Scotland. and actual figures for NPPs that have actualy been completed, like Barakah in the UAE, then 30 GW of offshore wind will cost:

    £105 Billion

    Compared to 15 GW of nuclear costing:

    £51.46 Billion

    Since a Korean built NPP will have capacity factor at least double that of OSW, you only need half the capacity.

    Then there is the life expectancy difference where East Anglia one will last 27 years while Barakah will last 60. So that yawning chasm of of £53.54 difference in cost becomes £107 Billion over 60 years.

    Of course one thing is missing from this massive cost difference based on actual, recently completed projects, not your steaming pile of made up horse sh​it, and that is the intermittency of wind means it's not suitable as a provider of base load power, so if you want to compare it to a constantly reliable base load source like nuclear, you need an additional layer of costs for energy storage, which the ESB is aiming mostly at hydrogen, but they say the storage requirement is so vast, in order to meet a 6 week wind lull - which is documented in the video, that they will need to use every storage tech there is - the sound of desperation in the video is palpable.

    So in addition to that massive cost difference, you have to add the cost of multiple storage technologies like H2, compressed air and flywheels and very expensive batteries.

    Nobody knows what that gnarly mess of multiple systems will cost, but it will add billions to the cost difference.

    Of course you need backup for the 3.5% downtime with a Korean built NPP, so if you assume you build 8 GW of gas turbine power plants from scratch (current demand on the Irish grid is 5 GW) then that will cost £5.97 Billion for the most gold plated system imaginable, bringing the cost difference down to £101 Billion.

    Hinkley is not a yardstick for anything. There are 437 nuclear reactors world wide, Hinkly is as much of a UK disaster as Brexit and it hasn't been built. It's projected costs would make it the most expensive NPP ever built. Only a knuckle dragging idiot would seek to emulate that mess.

    The South Koreans have built nuclear reactors in 4.5 years, the longest they have taken is 10 years, which is how long it took them to build all four reactors at Barrakah NPP - it took 8 years to build the first one before it was switched on.

    Your lying nonsense about £519Bn costs and other people's 25 years to build is just epic dishonesty.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,073 ✭✭✭✭end of the road


    whatever way we look at it, renewables cost a fraction of the cost of nuclear by all cost metrics and they back each other up.

    not a chance will that reactor that is claimed will last 60 years, actually last 60 years because of the variables involved. 40 years maybe at a stretch but more likely 30 in reality.

    and we are talking about countries with different construction standards compared to the west, + often unreliable designs that aren't proven in service yet, hay even the french are having that specific issue.

    forget about it, nuclear is not viable for ireland and will never pass any bcr.

    ticking a box on a form does not make you of a religion.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 604 ✭✭✭TheWonderLlama


    Dunno man,

    i think i'd prefer my new nuclear plants to be built by people who were not found to have faked safety tests on critical parts of the machinery. Maybe thats just me, though.

    How is it a scare tactic to point out something that has actually happened? Its a fact.

    You were the one suggesting the South koreans as the gold standard of plant builders. I'm just saying they might not be all that.

    Nuclear is not a runner for a country of this size.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Slovenia and Croatia have a combined population of 6m and they have a small shared nuclear power plant.

    It's a scare tactic because the problem was addressed and fixed and it happened years ago and there isn't the slightest indication that it's a problem now.

    The UAE have just had SK build 4 nuclear reactors for them and the UK may well follow suit. Egypt just signed a contract to have SK build part of itt's NPP. And now the UK:

    U.K. in Talks With South Korea to Build Nuclear Power Plants

    It seems other countries do not share your concerns. VW falsified emissions data for diesels yet here we are with lots of people still happy to buy and drive filthy diesels.

    Post edited by cnocbui on


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Whatever way you look at it, you trot out claims about comparative costs without a single figure or link to back them up. Renewables do not back each other up, that is lie. Last year there was a 6 week period with essentially no wind in Ireland. It sure wasn't backed up by solar - gas, coal, oil and peat are what backed up renewables.

    The Swiss Beznau nuclear poper plant was built in 1969 and is still running. That's 53, years, since you seem to have a problem with figures. Your '40 years at a stretch' just became 53 - duh!. More BS from you.

    Technology in many areas has improved in the last half century, so anything built now will have that advantage, so 60 years should be easily achievable. By the same token, I can as easily claim that 27 years for EAO is BS because the normaly accepted figure is 20.

    The French are having a corrosion problem after 30+ years of continual zero CO2 energy output. That's like saying my 2005 Honda is unreliable because after 16 years, it had to have the front shocks replaced by a garage - that being the only time in 16 years it's ever been in a garage.

    Can you explain why the new president of the Irish Institution of Engineers said Nuclear should be looked at as an option and that there should be a debate about it?

    Would that be because engineers don't have as much of a clue as you? Are you more qualified, if so, how?



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,073 ✭✭✭✭end of the road



    vw is a proven, reliable car maker, so why the diesel scandle was a serious issue and rightly dealt with, it's not a comparison to nuclear which is proven to not be reliable dispite the costs.

    ticking a box on a form does not make you of a religion.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,073 ✭✭✭✭end of the road



    renewables will eventually back each other up when implemented at scale at a fraction of the cost, the costs being shown to you in the infrastructure threads which i linked to in one of my posts for the delictation of the members of the urrent affairs forum.

    the swiss plant was life extended at great cost, it was supposed to last only 35 years.

    nuclear's costs are increasing and the reliability isn't improving, the construction methods are but even then it's small scale in reality.

    the president of the irish institution of engineers is expressing a viewpoint, from an engineering point of view as they love big projects, that's their job after all to like big and bold.

    nuclear isn't going to happen, the debate has been had and people don't want it near them as a best case, and as a worst case the cost is out of control and could be better spent on alternatives that would be a fraction of the cost and give us more output.

    ticking a box on a form does not make you of a religion.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,409 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight



    I'm using the figures from Hinkley-C because the UK is very similar to us except they've been in the market for 6-8 power plants since 2010 and have decades of experience with nuclear power and have a much larger grid that can cope with one nuclear plant going offline.

    Let's completely ignore the capital cost of Hinkley-C and the costs of subsiding it on the grid and just look at how much they will charge for the electricity.

    It's a 3.2GW reactor with a forecast uptime of 90% so 2,880MW average. It's got a guaranteed strike price and guaranteed demand for 35 years at £92.50 per MWh. There's 8766 hours in an average year. NB the strike price is Consumer Price Index linked from 2012. (If a second power plant is built there's a £3 volume discount).0

    the

    2880*8766*35*92.5 = 81734184000

    2880MW*8766hours/year*35years*£92.5/MWhours = £81,734,184,000 in 2012 = £104,785,804.51 in August 2022

    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/inflation-calculator for CPI rates.


    One hundred billion pounds gets you a lot of renewables.


    ONE of the storage facilities in the UK was able to hold our annual demand of gas. They shut it down to save £75 million a year when it would take 40 years of such savings to pay for Hinkley-C's cost increases in the first half of this year. Other European countries like Italy and Germany can store 30% of their annual gas demand.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Hinkly C doesn't have a cost because it hasn't been built, so its incomparable to anything. Your endless nonsense has run out of steam.

    Not only have the ESB floated their vision of what's needed for renewables to deliver net zero CO2, but they have demonstrated it's not achievable in anything like the time scale current plans call for but the numbers are so vast, the cost of it all is clearly going to be preposterous and well beyond this countries means to afford.

    The head of the Irish institute of engineers has said we need to look at nuclear and now William Reville, emeritus professor of biochemistry at UCC has come out saying the same thing.

    All we need is a few more loud voices and the government are going to have to deep six this renewables sham/scam.

    Post edited by cnocbui on


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui




  • Registered Users Posts: 29,073 ✭✭✭✭end of the road


    no government is going to look at nuclear unless the costs come down by 3 quarters at least and the reliability improves hugely.

    renewables aren't a scam as they are proven to work, are proven to be cheap and reliable while nuclear on the other hand is a technology from a different era that was being passed by by newer technologies from not long after it's conception.

    as i said, regardless of loud voices, it won't be happening because it makes no sense in any form by any metrics for ireland.

    ticking a box on a form does not make you of a religion.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,409 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    I keep telling you. There is no nuclear tech. It's all been done before specially by highly motivated people during the cold war. The Russians are still flying to the ISS using a rocket based on a 1957 missile. If progress was universal as you suggest it should have been retired in the early 1970's. Nuclear has had 70 years at scale and in the last 40 years we've been offered next generation rectors which will use 15% less fuel but at an insane capital cost.

    The Swiss had another plant that they built in a cave. That cave is now sealed.

    The French reactors being given a life extension is like the DOE passing most of the taxis when they have leaky radiators and then wondering why all the taxis are off the road when their engines are overheating.

    Aside you can pass the NCT with both of your shocks gone, as long as there isn't an imbalance. You can then get them done later during normal servicing.

    This isn't like that. It's more like if your engine overheats and seizes up and you'll be stuck at the side of the road then and there and your 2005 Honda will be beyond economic repair. At best you'd have to drive very slowly until you get the radiator sorted. And there's a limited supply of mechanics and radiators. And you are bleeding money because your taxi isn't earning.



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