Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Gatling · 07-10-2022 8:56am

I see the orc in the jacks video was pulled from twitter,

Kermit.de.frog · 07-10-2022 8:58am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119711552#Comment_119711552

No US president says that lightly.

One nuclear weapon gets detonated and suddenly we'll see sobering up in populations across Europe.

People beforehand may fob it off but once they see it it's going to change things from good intentions to the realisation that this is actually very dangerous for everyone.

We need to get out of this position and I don't think Ukraine regaining all it's territory and particularly attacking Crimea is in anyone's interests.

I don't think that's sunk in yet.

Speaking for myself, I wish them the best but I'm not willing to risk nuclear war for Ukraine.

briany · 07-10-2022 9:00am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119711663#Comment_119711663

It's not a big joke, but at the same time it's abject fear that Putin is looking to instill, and I do not believe he should be given that satisfaction. It's a very cagey game of brinkmanship going on, here. Putin will not want to be seen as a bluffer as it would make similar threats hold less weight in the future. Ukraine and NATO cannot give any indication that it's nuclear talk which gets the sides to the negotiating table and offering better terms than Putin would otherwise have gotten. This is a highly dangerous precedent to set when dealing with a despot like Putin.

Since it's Russia who introduced the nuclear aspect to their rhetoric, it falls upon Russia to withdraw it. Maybe the U.S. could communicate that via back channels.

strathspey · 07-10-2022 9:03am

Where's my daily fix of orc deaths and Ukrainian advances. Had to go back 4 pages.

faceman · 07-10-2022 9:05am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119711552#Comment_119711552

This is likely a wise move. Biden is solidifying the optics of the threat from Russia (even if they think Putin is bluffing) and the direct language Biden used is going to be reporting in media all round the world. If anyone was dismissive of Ukraine till now, your ears are defining tuned today.

It will hopefully solidify global support and pressurise Russian to avoid escalation.

Someone else mentioned in the thread though already, I’m not convinced countries like India and China would suddenly change stripes if Putin went tactical. Russia knows this too hence their call for a secret ballot on Ukraine in the UN next week.

With Putin’s birthday today let’s hope he doesn’t press the wrong fireworks button 🙈

fergiesfolly · 07-10-2022 9:15am

I wonder at what point in Ukraines advance does Putin seriously consider a nuclear strike? Would it be losing one of the annexed provinces? Or losing land access to Crimea?

He was willing to launch an attack on an apartment building in a region he now considers part of Russia on "Russian" citizens.

Who's to say he wouldn't be prepared to go all in if the annexed regions are over run.

rogber · 07-10-2022 9:15am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119711708#Comment_119711708

I take your point, both sides are treading a very fine line and trying to second guess the other side's true intentions. Biden can't say "no chance he'll go nuclear!" and also can't say "we better surrender Ukraine in case he goes nuclear", the first approach is too risky, the second would set a terrible precedent. The message he seems to be trying to get across to Putin is basically "dude, it just ain't worth it, not for you, not for anyone"and hoping the scumbag has a little bit of sense left in him to listen to reason

gk5000 · 07-10-2022 9:17am

Maybe Biden is preparing for a pre-emptive strike? He has to pretend to take Pute serious so he has that option.

briany · 07-10-2022 9:18am

@Kermit.de.frog

Speaking for my myself, I wish them the best but I'm not willing to risk nuclear war for Ukraine.

Realistically speaking, little to nothing is worth nuclear war, especially an all-out exchange, but this assumes rational actors on all sides who will recognise that. What Putin is doing is fairly unprecedented to be A) someone with enough nukes to, if not end the world, then seriously disrupt human civilisation, B) threatening to use at least one of these in an offensive capacity, risking a major escalation.

If Putin really is that crazy, there's technically nothing to stop him from saying that he wants all former Warsaw Pact countries in NATO to leave NATO by the end of the year, and if he doesn't get that, he'll nuke everyone and everything, and there'll be plenty of voices saying, "Fúcking give him it!"

The problem is that nuclear doctrine isn't really a tested thing since WW2. If push comes to shove, where are people collectively willing to draw a line, if there is a line?

Sunny Disposition · 07-10-2022 9:21am

Putin may not be bluffing, but he still can't be appeased. That's the unfortunate situation the world is in. He just can't be appeased as he was previously, or he'll go again.

Whether the conflict becomes nuclear or not is not in the control of the west now. It just can't appease Putin. It's very unfortunate, but that's where things are at.

Putin probably won't use nuclear weapons because things will be worse for him personally and for Russia if he does. But if he is appeased because of the threat the model is clear for him and for any future Russian leader to cut a swathe through Europe.

Bass Reeves · 07-10-2022 9:21am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119711539#Comment_119711539

I was born n in the deep south.......Kerry.😂😂😂

I was always a History/ Military buff. I had know that DT was a police tactical shooting technique most of the rest came up when I was confirming it.

Gregor Samsa · 07-10-2022 9:32am

Birthday celebrations in full swing in Moscow.

Furze99 · 07-10-2022 9:33am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119711715#Comment_119711715

Re advances likely consolidating, resupplying and planning. Won't they be monitoring and shelling Russian supply routes to Kherson in particular. Likely also working on spreading dissent in Russian forces there with a view to surrenders.

07-10-2022 9:33am

Twitter is fine, you just need to realise some is not true. Most people can realise the difference. It's a bit like Wikipedia - it's fine for initial research, but you'd need a more trustworthy news source to rely on it. That's what twitter is good for, soon enough if it's BS it gets called out. But, on the whole twitter is invaluable.

StrawbsM · 07-10-2022 9:35am

I’m hoping that the Kremlin would fracture IF Putin put in the order to use nukes. As the chain of command goes down the ranks, have those on the next rung down already secretly decided who they will take orders from?

Where is Valery Gerasimov (chief of the general staff) these days? Last photo was at the beginning of September and it’s reported that his encounter that day with Putin was pretty tense.

I just don’t know who is on the “have a bit of cop on” side and whether they’ve the backing on the lower ranks who are in control of releasing a nuke.

Gatling · 07-10-2022 9:38am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119711754#Comment_119711754

Im not in anyway convinced he would nuke anywhere inside ukraine or elsewhere,it's gone from the bomb to might test a nuclear weapon close to the Ukrainan border, which means either inside Russia and a minute possiblity of doing it in Belarus, I'm not sure that would go down well with anyone too .

This nuclear weapons talk has been in every thread on ukraine over the last 8+ years and it's always been used as an excuse not to stand up to putin ,oh we need to be careful he has nukes,let him take ukraine and elsewhere he has nukes,let him invade here he has nukes ,

Most of the nuke talk comes from low level recently registered posters too ,

faceman · 07-10-2022 9:39am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119711823#Comment_119711823

Putin has fired any of his staff and cabinet who aren’t fully loyal to him. If there is dissenting voices they are very well hidden

Francie Barrett · 07-10-2022 9:44am

https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1578084916536950784

Interesting.

Boggles · 07-10-2022 9:48am

More photos and videos of crying Russian mothers hugging their sons as they are loaded onto the conscription meat grinder bus, phones taken and left in fields without any supplies, straight to the front line without training, maybe some have tampons for bullet wounds if they are lucky.

I don't care how much of a strangle hold Puttin has, that has firmly broken the social contract with Russian citizens, there has to be pressure bubbling internally politically.

He has been reduced to holding a gun to his head screaming he isn't bluffing.

Whatever happened the 5d chess master?

zv2 · 07-10-2022 9:49am

...

07-10-2022 9:51am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119711706#Comment_119711706

That's okay, nobody is asking you to risk anything for Ukraine. You, and me for that matter, are irrelevant.

Kennedy stood up to Russia's bluff in 1962 - The West needs to do the same now. If the West didn't show they are taking it seriously Putin might be more inclined to Nuke Western Ukraine. The West has told him publicly and through back channels (apparently) this would not be taken lightly.

Putin needs to weigh up whether using a nuclear attack on Ukraine would help with his clusterfúck of a war or likely weaken him further at home. I think personally if he manages to explode a nuclear bomb anywhere he realises his risk of overthrow in Russia goes up exponentially. Likewise the likelihood of the West attacking his forces with massive conventional forces. IF the West doesn't they may as well hand Putin the keys to Poland, the baltics and possibly much of Europe. I say this as someone from the start (and got grief) saying NATO/The West should not intervene directly against Russian troops but to back them massively with weapons and all other indirect support (which is what they have done to great effect and credit to Ukraine).

In summary, I don't think Putin (for selfish reasons) wont go nuclear - but if he does NATO/The west should strike with all the might of their conventional weapons.

Finally, people thinking Russia has enough serviceable nuclear missiles that they could spare 3 for Ireland is incredible. But, to be fair to them up until recently even some military commentators* thought Russia would overwhelm NATO (especially near Kaliningrad) in a conventional European war - they can't even get past a former soviet country!

*They may have had ulterior motives for saying this i.e. budget spend.

briany · 07-10-2022 9:55am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119711818#Comment_119711818

BS may get called out on Twitter, but not enough people seem to realise that it doesn't really matter. Trump was allowed to say an outrageous amount of BS on Twitter and any of his being called out on it made little difference. The only thing that did was his eventual banning.

On Wikipedia, maybe you might get away with posting something non-factual on an obscure article that no-one reads, but when it comes to anything bigger, any purported fact you write will require citation or be removed. Wikipedia may not have totally up to the minute information, but tends to be a much better way of filtering through all the noise to build a clear picture of what has happened.

Danzy · 07-10-2022 10:04am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119709592#Comment_119709592

OPEC don't really have any problems with Russia invading Ukraine, outside of Europe and America, no one is concerned.

Prince Mohamed Bone Saw, as one reporter referred to him, is explicitly giving 2 fingers to Europe and America and while shaking hands with Putin.

OPEC hold enough cards, they see a future selling to most of the world outside of Europe and North America where concerns about carbon emissions, the environment are non existent, where such Western ideals on democracy, human rights, worker's rights are being slowly removed as culturally alien.

They fundamentally agree with Putin in many ways.

rogber · 07-10-2022 10:09am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119711863#Comment_119711863

The 5d chess master is having a birthday drink with Trump in the alternative world that their fan bases inhabit.

Apparently they both get strategy advice from Hans Niemann

rogber · 07-10-2022 10:15am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119711818#Comment_119711818

It's not at all like Wikipedia, which is pretty solid for basic research and facts. On twitter anything goes and so much more user discretion is advised, which many users here are totally incapable of using as they rush for the next sensational development ...

Boggles · 07-10-2022 10:28am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119711919#Comment_119711919

Too remedial, given Russia have taken over from Saudi as Chinas biggest supplier of oil at a drastically reduced price, removing themselves from actual lucrative markets to fight for scraps with an isolated desperate Russia would be best described as fúcking stupid.

If higher inflation and interest rates caused by oil and gas prices speeds up and prolongs a recession in Europe and America then that directly effects Chinas economy, whose need for energy decreases which leads to Saudi and Russia starting another race to the bottom price war where they will have to pay countries to take their crude.

Same goes for India's economy whose majority export market is Europe and the US.

It has been described as "short sighted" which is perfectly apt.

Hobgoblin11 · 07-10-2022 10:34am

https://t.me/bbbreaking/137529

Erdogan and Putin had a phone call, discussed situation in Ukraine

pjordan · 07-10-2022 10:40am

Worth taking time today to remember Anna Politkovskaya, murderered in Moscow this day 16 years ago. So much of what she warned the west about Putin has come to pass

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anna_Politkovskaya

Goes to show that some Russians were/are brave enough to put their heads above he parapet and some have given their lives for doing so.

07-10-2022 10:58am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119711919#Comment_119711919

Opec actually understand the amount of time remaining with bumper oil prices is limited and want to maximise revenue while they can. The move to alternate energy sources is not just in Europe and North America. Hydrocarbons will remain a key factor in energy supplies for the foreseeable, but will reduce globally as alternatives improve. Alternative energy sources are not just about carbon, they are the only sustainable option in the long term, whatever your views on Climate change are. Saying people wont switch is like saying 100 years ago "sure why would we get a car, a horse is fine, and sure the roads aren't good enough anyway".

As the infrastructure improves and energy storage solutions improve, this will accelerate.

briany · 07-10-2022 11:12am

@Boggles

I don't care how much of a strangle hold Puttin has, that has firmly broken the social contract with Russian citizens, there has to be pressure bubbling internally politically.

He has been reduced to holding a gun to his head screaming he isn't bluffing.

Whatever happened the 5d chess master?

I think the 5D chess master got a bit too cocky. If Putin had a plan to usurp the current world order, he was getting it largely done prior to 2022. All he had to do was hitch a ride on the China train and watch as the political fires Russia helped ignite in the US continued to rage and bring the house down.

Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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