2022 Irish EV Sales

on the wireless charger.

Availability for Teslas Model 3 and Y is quite good despite the web page stating next delivery June, it is likely going to be only a few weeks / months. But @sk8board is right, having the latest tech doesn't interest a lot of people. People feel VW, who have been around forever and are the biggest car maker in the world, is a safer choice than these newfangled Teslas

Also as @Thumper Long said, Tesla's trade in process is bad. And there is only 1 showroom in the country and you have to buy online. The servicing / repairs might be a worry, where VW have garages in every town. That would put a lot of people off, particularly older people. Not many people over 50 own Teslas. And Tesla finance / PCP is not good, where VW have that down to a T

But you sir are in the know most potential buyers probably never join a forum for their car and are aware of the real delivery timescales especially for Tesla and the EDDs online can be quite a put off, people don’t like lack of certainty

It’s unlikely cars will ever operate without an OEM UX - There’s too many things that OEMs would never cede control of, or access to, to Apple and Android, e.g onboard service records

and on the flip side apple and android have little interest in custom building dozens of code streams for the myriad of car/driver settings that are bespoke to each OEM (ambient lighting, mirrors, vents, etc etc etc), for software that’s freeware.

it suits them to just do a generic phone/nav/audio implementation, covering 90% of the requirement, and the only OEM customisation required is the screen dimensions.

Look at it this way - how much is the average driver willing to pay for Apple CarPlay to provide a service in their VW akin to the Tesla in-house solution? (and Tesla only have 2 screens to build for - S/X and 3/Y. Apple would have literally hundreds). From a software perspective it doesn’t scale at all as freeware.

so another 1,858 EV’s sold in September 22.

14,513 ytd compared to 7,819 for the same period last year.

when do we reach the tipping point?

When supply in some way approximates demand which is a while off yet

Thank the lord everybody finally seems to understand that diesel is dead. We should never have allowed diesel private cars on our roads. Good riddance.

Agreed. I never blame individuals, just the policies. It wasn't just the Greens here in Ireland, same thing happened in most other countries (in Europe) too, although we all knew diesel causes cancer. Future generations will be astonished we let this happen. It's maybe not quite as bad as adding lead to petrol 100 years ago, but it also killed many people. Possibly millions.

Ireland's claim to fame was that we had the highest percentage of diesel cars in the world. Being on a small island where the average car doesn't do much daily mileage. Shameful.

Are the table titles correct 2022%, is that not Sept’22 %

Bear in mind the Sept market share is distorted by the glut of Tesla deliveries, which happens every few months.

as for tipping point, we should distinguish between sales tipping point and national fleet tipping point.

the total EV sales in the past decade is probably about 50k(?), which is 2% of the national fleet of c.2.5m vehicles.

id expect a tipping point in sales terms in the next 18-24months once supply chain issues can get resolved, when you consider the numbers are almost doubling YoY.

finally - bear in mind that we have 80-100k new car transactions into the 2.5m national fleet, and only a minority are EV - in other words, the overwhelming majority of market transactions (6-800k??) are happening in the 2nd hand market, and primarily at low €2-15k car values.

we’re a decade away from a person on a low-skill wage replacing their €2k micra with a €2k EV.

new car registrations are the tip of the pyramid, but the trickle-down takes 10-15 years

same discussion here

Yeah I think cars like the E-Up demonstrate that you can make a successful EV without any requirement for an expensive infotainment system and complex software

I think that's for the last month, not full year

Polestar 2 is a pretty rare beast, I've only seen 1 in Ireland so far

But your phone could do all of that, look at Tesla and ABRP integration where ABRP accesses live data about the car and then updates the route planning

I will say that I don't see myself buying a car without an onboard satnav that works offline anytime in the future. I've seen enough situations where my phone has to signal or android auto craps out that I want some backup

It's really not that hard to make a decent satnav with some connected services. I think where automakers are going wrong is that they're stretching to build a full OS and UX by themselves instead of just looking for something off the shelf

“The number of new electric cars licensed has increased by 81 per cent from 7,470 in the first nine months of 2021 to 13,506 in 2022,” she said.

“At the same time, the number of new diesel cars is decreasing. For the first nine months of 2022, 25,113 new cars licensed were diesel cars compared with 32,341 in the same period in 2021.”

So when wil electric cars outsell diesel cars? Place your bets now…..

That's already insane. 2 diesels sold for 1 EV? Unthinkable even 12 months ago

I think it will happen next year.

No they don't outsell diesels. Despite all Toyota's ad money trying to make you think so, a car is not an electric car unless you can load it with energy electrically - a Corolla with only a petrol filler cap is not an electric car: it's a more efficient petrol car, and even if it uses electricity internally, the only thing you put into it to make it go is petrol.

Add PHEVs and BEVs and they still fall short of diesel sales. That will change, though, but it's not there yet...

Depends on how the supply-chain issues go with car-makers. The current lingering problems around semiconductors have caused manufacturers to scale back production of their cheaper, low margin vehicles and concentrate their reduced production capacity on making higher-margin product instead. That means less petrols and diesels, more PHEVs and BEVs; even within combustion-engined cars, the basic trims are limited availability, while the loaded models can be had relatively easily.

If things loosen up, then you will see mild-hybrid petrol cars making a serious comeback at the lower end of the market: not everyone can afford PHEV or BEV pricing for a new car.

The real move in the market is when BEVs get onto the second-hand market: only a minority of car-buyers buy new cars. Right now, there’s no supply of used BEVs barring some early low-range LEAFs and Teslas (no, not even with your money...) and this has inflated the second-hand prices of BEVs to a point where they’re out of reach of most used-car buyers. When the current wave of models hits the used market, things will really change.

@KrisW1001 - "The current lingering problems around semiconductors have caused manufacturers to scale back production of their cheaper, low margin vehicles and concentrate their reduced production capacity on making higher-margin product instead. That means less petrols and diesels, more PHEVs and BEVs"

How did you derive that? There is far more margin on a petrol or diesel than on an equivalent BEV. Most manufacturers make barely any profit at all on BEVs (Tesla excepted). The only reason they make BEVs is if they didn't, they wouldn't be allowed to make profitable petrols and diesels. They're hanging onto ICE production as long as they can. Yes even VW.