Sophie: A Murder in West Cork - Netflix.

You can get a conviction on circumstantial evidence mainly as Aaron Brady and a number of others have found out. BUT, the issue with the circumstantial evidence in Baileys case is that many of it was given by completely unreliable sources/ex cons/agendas against Bailey types who when it came down to it, didnt stack up. On top of this, the gards were bribing/intimidating/coercing local people to go against Bailey and invent sightings because of this etc. This has been reported many times & local people in a rural area like that would have always believed anything the gards were telling them.

The biggest things that point to Baileys innocence for me is that he was willing to give his DNA despite not knowing if they had retrieved any DNA or not, the sheer energy it would have taken to murder someone in a violent manner, in the middle of the night or morning, walk a couple of miles after boozing and then get up early to report on this murder all the while where his partner and her kids didnt suspect a thing. His eagerness to continue living in the area, his letters to the Garda Commissioner urging him to properly reopen the investigation among many other things.

If he did commit it, he is some sort of genius with balls the size of balloons where hes willing to risk his freedom by encouraging garda commisioners to reopen the investigation

Do I think hes a nice man, no, but I think he deserves the presumption of innocence until proven guilty especially because of how this investigation was handled. The gards only have themselves to blame for screwing up this investigation

An element of narcissism though is self preservation. He hasnt shown much of that, if he was one, he wouldve no doubt have kept his mouth shut, not reported on the crime & moved away from the area asap.

I think narcissism itself though is a word bandied about too much. Theres some narcissism in everyone, doesnt make them a psychopathic murderer though.

I can understand the belief that he was horny after a feed of pints or spirits, saw the lights on in her house from a distance, put Jules to sleep & then fancied his arm for a shag. Wouldn't be the first man or woman to try it certainly. When it went wrong, given how drunk he might have been, he lashed out & then realized he had to kill her otherwise he'd be locked up.

But thats where it ends.

No DNA, no credible witness statements, no credible sightings of him in him in the vicinity of the crime, no real motive(outside of sexual which is debatable).

His behavior. Reports on the crime hours after he committed it, attending a local community event, writes numerous articles on the murder, stays in area of said crime, petitions gards commissioner to reopen the investigation etc

Either hes one of the best murderers who got away with it out there or hes a victim