Republic of Ireland Team 2023/24 [old thread]

Or our much easier Nations League group

Is this the first time since the qualification for Euro 1984 that we haven't drawn a team from behind the old Iron Curtain?

Not really. Cant see us getting anything from the other three so depending on how the fixtures fall morale could be so far in the gutter by the time we travel to Gibraltar so an "upset" wouldn't surprise me at all.

If the away game is earlier in the campaign we could well be up for it and end up winning both games against them.

Unfortunately yes they do. At least with Cyprus you could have gotten a decent away trip even if you couldn't get a ticket on the day.

"Practically guaranteed a play-off". I think it's more marginal than this, but I'll try to examine it as I type and maybe I'll be convinced (open mind, lets see)

Firstly, this is the Path B rankings. UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying play-offs - Wikipedia We are ranked in 10th place and the play-offs are 4 teams, so to get a play-off spot we would need 6 of the teams ranked above us to qualify automatically. (To get a home semi-final in that play-off we would need 8 of the teams above us to qualify but lets leave that aside as a bonus).

So of those 9 teams ranked above which 6 are going to qualify automatically?

Israel - In a group with Switzerland, Romania, Kosovo and Belarus. We'd have loved their spot. They'll be fancied for Top 2.

Bosnia - With Portugal, Iceland and Luxembourg. This should be manageable for them. Iceland are also one of our blockers though, ranked 7.

Serbia - Hungary, Montegro, Bulgaria. Should be favourites to win this group, would take a complete Serbian meltdown to not be Top 2.

Scotland - Spain, Norway, Georgia. Looks like a battle for second with a tricky Georgian team, and the wrecking ball that is Haaland. Marginal. Especially because Norway are also one of blockers.

Finland - Denmark, Slovenia, Kazakstan, Northern Ireland. This could be a struggle, Finland could get second or fifth and I wouldn't be surprised either way. But they look a plausible candidate for needing a play-off spot. Unfortunately Slovenia are a blocker also.

Ukraine - Italy, England, Macedonia. Ouch, this is a problem for us. Ukraine look nailed for needing their play-off spot here, and would be horrible opponents in an away semi-final.

Iceland - With Portugal, Bosnia and Luxembourg. We really need them or Bosnia to take a spot, but it probably won't be both qualifying automatically coz Portugal are solid.

Norway - Spain, Scotland, Georgia. Again the problem is that Spain will take a spot, so either Norway or Scotland won't and will thus need the play-off spot spot.

Slovenia - Denmark, Finland, Kazakstan, Northern Ireland. Problem again is that if Denmark finish top 2 then either Slovenia or Finland don't and thus need their play-off spot. Possibly they both might need their play-off spot.

My snap analysis is that we are completely fcuked for getting a play-off spot through the Path B placings. One of Bosnia and Iceland will need a spot, ditto one of Scotland or Norway, then Ukraine, then Finland or Slovenia. They'll be the 4.

There's obviously ways in which we could end up in the trickier Path A qualifying, but the rules state that Path D teams have priority for any excess places.

Ah that is a poxy draw, feel very deflated after that. Pretty much a 0% chance that we will be getting out of that group - the real question will be do we finish 3rd or 4th, Greece away is as tough of a fixture as you could get from pot 4.

What happens now with regards to expectations for Kenny? I think most were in agreement that his tenure boils down to the Euro 2024 qualifying, but 5 months before a ball is even kicked we can almost safely say we won't be competing for a top two spot. Where does that leave him then? Obviously if we finish 4th he deserves to be sacked (and will go down as our worst ever manager by a country mile), if we finish 3rd does he deserve to stay on?

Excellent and thorough analysis.

The error in my way of thinking was that I forgot that the last time around there were only 12 teams in both leagues A & B, so therefore there were more play-off spots available for non-qualifiers, relatively speaking.

I think it's just bad luck for Kenny. If he doesn't qualify then he's gone, barring some real heroic & unfortunate effort (a la World Cup 2010).

To be honest I think this draw means Kenny has a better chance of keeping his job after the campaign.

As long as he manages to finish a respectable 3rd. It will be job done. And none would argue with that.

Also it will suit Ireland as can play on the counter. It gives Obafemi /Ogbene a chance to surprise the big guns with their pace.

Let’s be honest the odds of Ireland getting a good draw were slim as 3rd seed. That is the reality of where Ireland are.

I will be looking forwards to the games. Big teams, big tests.

Almost like a Euros proper. The team as a great chance to learn and grow, with no outlandish expectations. If I was Kenny I would be secretly pleased as long as Ireland beat Gibraltar and not lose to Greece - that is the minimum expectations.

Had to double check that this was true. Yep, it is. So basically Latvia and or Estonia are going to be chucked in as cannon fodder to (almost certainly) League A. That's going to be a nice semi-final for somebody!

Yeah I think we're totally goosed.

Yeah, I think people on twitter (and the posters here taking it as gospel) are completely missing out on the ramifications of the Pot D teams having priority for excess play-off places. So all this talk earlier about being 'ranked 26th overall so just needing so many teams above us to qualify and this we get a play-off place' is complete garbage. But I do understand it's an easy thing to miss in the rules!

Yeah only Estonia are likely to get a play off spot. If Estonia actually manage to qualify directly then their potential spot doesn't then move down to Latvia.

If we do get a qualifier spot then his future will hinge in that more than this group.

Unless we get really humiliated in the group.

Focus on the process rather than the end result. I can foresee a scenario where I end up feeling he should be sacked and we finish 3rd but also one where I feel he should keep his job despite finishing 4th. It depends on the actual performances and development through the 8 games.

If we hammer Gibraltar twice, draw twice with the Greeks and draw away to the French in a great performance but we're pipped to 3rd by the Greeks who matched our results but turned over the Dutch in a game should he be sacked for a 4th placed finish like that? Probably not if we are constantly improving.

On the other hand the Greeks could have a disastrous qualifying and we beat them twice in two poor enough games, we get hammered by the French and Dutch 4 times and struggle past Gibraltar. Should he keep his job even though we finished 3rd? Probably not if development has stalled and we're putting in woeful performances most games.

Deciding based solely on finish position is too black & white.

Another play off scenario but probably less likely to happen than three teams below us qualifying automatically would be if 6/9 teams ahead of us in League B qualify automatically we get a League B play off spot.

Yup there's as much chance of Kenny keeping his job without qualification as there is Kenny getting the bullet and not even seeing any potential play off game.

Nations league is Ireland’s real tournament as far as I am concerned- that is the bread and butter. To be thinking of qualifying for a Euros is aspirational notions at the best of times regardless of the teams drawn.

I just read it on the Euro 2024 qualiflying playoff article so it might not be 100% accurate, although it would make more sense than multiple teams from League D being gauranteed a playoff. Here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2024_qualifying_play-offs

So many variable factors that it is hard to make any kind of prediction, but could it end up in a situation where we end up playing Estonia in a playoff semi and then go on to play the winners of say Wales v Albania in a final? Would not be the worst scenario if that was the case. Ukraine being in such a tough group is a killer as they will likely be in the B league playoff route. So going into the A league playoffs might not be the worst thing.

edit: ah it is too complicated, could just as easily be someone like Austria or Norway in there, so we won't know for about another year if it will be a benefit or not.

Yeah that is true I guess, but I also feel like we need to see some real tangible progress in this campaign. If we were to finish 4th but get a win over Greece at home and maybe nick a result against France/Netherlands then you could think yes it is worth keeping him on, but if it's a 4th place finish full of moral victories and we do below par results wise then it's bye bye Kenny. If we slip up against Gibraltar it should be an automatic sacking.

No mention of group D winner here.

Edit: This has the group D winner, so presumably an error on the article I posted.

https://documents.uefa.com/r/Regulations-of-the-UEFA-European-Football-Championship-2022-24/Article-17-Match-system-play-offs-Online

Greece are also coming into it off the back of a good Nations League and statistically had a better WC campaign than us. Would have had us both at the same price for qualification or maybe many Greeks have lumped money on themselves drawing their way to qualification knocking the odds down a bit 😂

France at home first up with probably a friendly games also thrown in. September a tough month with France away followed by Holland at home.

Rugby World Cup kicks off the day before we play France so game might not be in Paris.

Would have preferred the Greece games swapped having to play over there in June the weather could be in the high 30s.

France at home first up is a decent fixture. If you're gonna have any chance of getting a result you'd want them in the first game.

Anyone thinking of going to the France away it probably won't be in Paris due to the Rugby World Cup. Possibly will be played in Lyon

Issue with the fixtures. Welsh FA also tweeted so not sure if it's every fixture or just certain groups.