General British politics discussion thread

VinLieger · 11-10-2022 8:54am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119728287#Comment_119728287

And they wont do it it again with the current tory party, maybe it would happen with a split one nation party or a more centrist one but it will not happen with the current batch.

You are living in a fantasy land.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119728360#Comment_119728360

Thats such a pathetic reach and a sad attempt to deflect.

ancapailldorcha · 11-10-2022 9:04am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119728360#Comment_119728360

Another bad faith argument. It's about breaking the duopoly of both major parties and making elected governments legitimate.

You seem to be desperately trying to shut this down. You said before that PR is only for nerds, then that PR would have won a landslide in 2011 before going on to say that you couldn't wait for a Tory/UKIP coalition. Now, you think it's an attempt to ditch extinguish euroscepticism. There's more than a hint of hysteria about these posts.

Euroscepticism is dead in the UK anyway. It achieved its goal and the goal was monumental folly. Once the atrocious boomer generation die off, I fully expect the UK to rejoin.

awec · 11-10-2022 9:20am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119728302#Comment_119728302

I don't know how many times you've been told this on this thread at this stage, but the Tories have never polled these kind of numbers.

By and large the last 100 years has been dominated by the Tory party, with Labour filling in the gaps. In a PR system this would almost certainly stop, because quite simply Tory voters represent a minority of people. In PR, you cannot get absolute power while you are a minority.

Moving to PR would cause a massive shift in British politics, not only because it would likely end Tory dominance, but also because it's likely that both the Tory and Labour Party would split into separate parties. The Corbyn wing could go it alone and campaign on their own agenda. The Lib Dems would benefit, as there'd be no fear in giving them a vote instead of Labour if your main concern is keeping the Tories out.

This is the beauty of PR. It results in a government that actually reflects the electorate. If you want a majority government, you need to get the majority of votes. The downside is you can end up with endless coalitions (like in Ireland), and this can at times reduce the efficiency of government decision making. But at the end of the day, politics is all about compromise and in PR everyone gets a little bit of what they want.

hotmail.com · 11-10-2022 9:34am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119729084#Comment_119729084

A centre right party in the UK will still get around 35 to 40% of the first preference vote in that system. If you remove the euro sceptic element to a Tory party, they will pick up votes from Lib Dem voters and centre based Labour voters.

awec · 11-10-2022 9:42am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119729136#Comment_119729136

Nonsense.

Even at their peak recently, when Labour were in the doldrums in 2019 and Boris got his stonking big 160+ seat lead, the Tories couldn't manage more than 43% of the vote. The Tories have not managed a majority since the 1930s.

The idea that voters will flock TO the tory party in a PR system does not stand up to any scrutiny.

hotmail.com · 11-10-2022 9:48am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119729163#Comment_119729163

43% is enormous in a multi party system.

I think you underestimate just how liked and popular the Tories are in Britain, particularly in England.

awec · 11-10-2022 9:52am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119729192#Comment_119729192

Why do you keep talking about England? England does not have its own parliament. "Particularly in England" though is a funny way of saying "only in England". 43% may be "enormous", but it's still an enormous minority.

I am using the actual facts and figures, which are available for every single election in the past 100+ years. The facts are clear and irrefutable, the Tories have not managed to get the majority of votes for nearly 100 years. You on the other hand, are waffling and spinning.

hotmail.com · 11-10-2022 10:03am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119729202#Comment_119729202

I don't know what I've said that was inaccurate. You just don't agree with me. So no need to be so rude.

They are particularly popular in England. They attracted nearly half of the vote in the last election there.

ancapailldorcha · 11-10-2022 10:10am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119729236#Comment_119729236

Attracting half the vote in a two-party system isn't "particularly popular".

Igotadose · 11-10-2022 10:28am

The impact of PR in the UK would be equivalent to its impact in the USA. Seismic shift in politics. People would actually be able to choose candidates that might have an impact on issues they care about. Even in little Ireland you can see what coalitions get up to; Israel's an example, perhaps, of coalitions getting too fractured, but they find ways to sort-of work together there. Much like Brexit, unintended consequences would be pervasive.

I'm pretty sure both Tories and Labour will fight tooth and nail to prevent it. They can say stuff, but both sides will directly and indirectly oppose it should it come up. It'd be a miracle if it did happen, and who knows what shape it'll actually take.

Leroy42 · 11-10-2022 10:38am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119729192#Comment_119729192

If the Toires could avoid splitting, which given the recent history is unlikely, then they would continue to poll strongly. However, part of their appeal is that in many cases there is no-one else to voe for. It is either vote Tory or waste your vote. In a PR system, parties like Lib Dems, UKIP etc will pick up more votes as the vote isn't wasted.

But even if they were to continue to secure 43%, that wouldn't give them a majority, and if by some quirk in the vote split they managed a majority, it would be very small, nothin like the 80 seat they had after 2019. So, like with the Lib Dems, they will be forced into a coalition. Coalitions tend to blunt the more extreme edges from parties.

Yes it can lead to lack of decisions, but given the decisions taken by the majority Tory government then I'm not sure that having single party in charge is really such a good idea.

ancapailldorcha · 11-10-2022 10:44am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119729315#Comment_119729315

I don't think Labour would fight tooth and nail. They know how important this is to younger people. Even the Tories conceded a referendum on the AV system in their negotiations with the Liberal Democrats in 2010.

The Labour party can be lobbied. I recall when Ed Miliband was successfully pressured into committing to drop the bedroom tax pre-2015 for instance. They've adopted a lot of positions that younger people tend to be passionate about, particularly climate change action.

It's far from a given but it's no longer purely fantasy either. The red tops will fight it with everything they've got but they're largely a spent force outside the Westminster bubble. It'd be in Labour's interest to enact PR IMO. They're still known as being the founders of the NHS during the 1948-1951 Attlee government. Once in, they'll be inundated with the unprincipled fury of the modern right so they'll need to leave the foundations for a fairer system behind.

L1011 · 11-10-2022 11:12am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119729163#Comment_119729163

The idea seems to rely on the simplistic thought that Lib Dem voters would flock to a centre-right Tory party; and yet also be entirely fine with them going in to Government with the hard right rump.

Which isn't going to happen.

pixelburp · 11-10-2022 11:13am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119729371#Comment_119729371

I agree with most of what you say, except perhaps the Red Tops being a spent force. Much like Brexit, the problem will be a PR referendum will absolutely, 100% be fought along the lines of a (deeply patronising) strategy of "it's too complicated, don't worry your pretty little heads about it", alongside another firehouse of lies like... I dunno, using Belgium as an example of crippled governance 'cos of PR (I think Belgium uses it, being too lazy to confirm). It'll be brutal - and I think effective.

As always, the problem remains that if the young don't vote on these things we know they support - you only need a small number of motivated older types, gullibly buying into what the Red Tops are screaming about. Maybe it speaks too much towards my own resting bias but I can't see the UK population learning anything from Brexit. It'll all need a good grassroots campaign across a number of years before a referendum could be reasonably tabled.

Sam Russell · 11-10-2022 11:14am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119728302#Comment_119728302

The point about PR is not the number of first preferences you get, it is the number of seats you win.

Getting 15% of FP votes does not win that many seats. The trouble with FP votes, is that they tend to scatter as they are redistributed. Remember that we are talking about PR/STV single seat constituencies - so transfers go elsewhere. With 15% of the vote, the candidate would be eliminated by count four - no seat.

If the 15% were consistent over the whole country, the 15% wins no seats.

ancapailldorcha · 11-10-2022 11:24am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119729471#Comment_119729471

That demographic will ultimately vote on a cultural basis which of course will be to reject PR without even thinking about it. Newspaper sales have been dropping for years now. Murdoch, Lebedev & Co obviously wield huge influence in Downing Street and Whitehall but outside that, I'm not so sure. We saw Lebedev being given a peerage despite being identified as a patently obvious security risk.

You're right to highlight that the anti-PR campaign will be fought hard but I think it's important to bear in mind how little credibility the Tories have outside their base. The question is how bothered voters will be on a matter this technical and dry. The pro-PR side better have a damn good explainer for how PR works because I daresay most Irish people couldn't explain PR-STV.

The young tend not to vote for a variety of reasons but I think PR evades most of these. It's a referendum for starters. It'd be the foundation for real change and hopefully, the campaign would do a decent job on social media mobilising people.

From YouGov:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/should-we-change-our-current-british-voting-system

hotmail.com · 11-10-2022 12:46pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119729479#Comment_119729479

The first preference vote is always crucial in PR.

It usually, but not always, decides who gets elected.

ArmaniJeanss · 11-10-2022 1:01pm

I think they'd be easier convinced to go for a simple dHondt or Webster list system, as used in various European countries and in their MEP elections pre-Brexit. Easier to explain, and has a direct and clear link between percentage of vote and number of seats.

I think anything like our PRSTV (either multi or single seat) is a complete non-runner at the moment. The thought of someone 'finishing fourth, but winning the seat' is seemingly just too scary (and too easy to use as a negative in a referendum campaign). List systems still have the advantage of being 'one person, one vote' which seemed a selling point in the campaign against ARV in 2011.

Leroy42 · 11-10-2022 1:06pm

The UK will not be having any referendums for years.

The disaster of Brexit, not just economically but politically and culturally, are just too big and nobody is going to want to go down that road again.

ancapailldorcha · 11-10-2022 1:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119729912#Comment_119729912

How would a referendum on PR be as bad as Brexit?

Leroy42 · 11-10-2022 1:45pm

It's not that the referendum itself would be as bad, but no politician is going to want to sand up and say that this is the right thing to do. Anyone against the idea of PR itself will simply launch into the negative impact of Brexit - We voted and the HoC tried to cancel it - stuff. THe wounds from the terrible Brexit ref run really deep and it will take a very brave person to call for that to do entered into again.

For those that advocate for PR, the lesson from Brexit is that it is very easy to make sweeping statements that resonate with the public, without any real evidence.

rock22 · 11-10-2022 1:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119729912#Comment_119729912

Do they need a referendum?

Could a Labour government not just change the voting system through Parliament?

L1011 · 11-10-2022 1:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119730156#Comment_119730156

They don't need a referendum. They didn't need the Brexit referendum to decide to leave (nor did they need to actually do it afterwards) either.

ArmaniJeanss · 11-10-2022 2:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119730156#Comment_119730156

They definitely could, but it's complicated. Not least it would be held up the House of Lords for a long time (though the HoL is limited by how long they can delay something) and cause quite a big backlash, court challenges re constitutionality etc.

Realistically it's either referendum or election manifesto. Referendum is obviously indisputable, while having it in the manifesto would mean that the Lords wouldn't delay it as they'd accept (tradition) that it was the will of the people. It seems very unlikely that Labour will put it in the manifesto though.

breezy1985 · 11-10-2022 2:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119730202#Comment_119730202

It's too irrational a topic to put it in the manifesto right now. The tabloids will use it as a dog whistle with stupid headlines about "Britishness" "tradition" and "apocalyptic coalitions"

ancapailldorcha · 11-10-2022 2:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119730059#Comment_119730059

Why, exactly? The case is obvious and Brexit is done.

The whole Remainer plot thing has been done to death. It's just a cheap debate-killing tactic now. The population on the whole favours voting reform as shown in my YouGov link above. There'll be resistance because there's always resistance to change but there's even some support on the right from figures such as John Cleese and Nigel Farage.

Tom Mann Centuria · 11-10-2022 2:37pm

John Cleese was a Lib Dem for decades, the most openly pro European party for virtually the entire time he supported them. So it's really odd that Brexit, and their position on that, caused him to pretty well jump ship.

Sam Russell · 11-10-2022 4:40pm

There is nothing complicated about PR/STV for a voter - put the candidates in the order of your preference. You could not have a simpler voting instruction other than with FPTP - put a cross next to the candidate you prefer.

In a single seat constituency, there is no gaming. The candidates get eliminated from the bottom - and they could eliminate those in the first round who did not get, say 5%, of first preferences. [Of course we cannot do that in a multi-seat vote because of the possibility of transfers if the top candidates get above the quota]

In a race, it is the one who finishes first, not the one who shows first to be in the lead. Say you had an extreme party that had a following of 25% of the electorate, but no-one else. They could lead after the first count, but get no transfers, so get eliminated at count four as other candidates pass them out, because those candidates have broader appeal. Easy to explain.

Also, a strong party could actually put up two candidates and allow the voters to pick one.

11-10-2022 10:08pm

Some pressure tomorrow on Truss and Kwarteng after the BoE saying this evening that they’re going to stop supporting the gilt market on Friday. The BoE know that to continue is putting good money after bad and only the chancellor and the treasury can fix this. They can’t keep bailing out this shower. Pound will fall for sure and they’re going to have to come out with something to reassure the markets fast…

kowloon · 12-10-2022 2:01am

Since PR voting has cropped up I have a question that's sort of related and not worth opening a new thread for. In Instant runoff systems, when the candidate with the lowest count is removed every one of their votes is redistributed to their respective second preference. In STV, once a candidate reaches the quota only the excess votes are redistributed. Would that not make IRV a fairer system? I know I've either gotten something wrong here or there's a simple explanation, but it's eluding me at stupid o'clock on a ~~Tuesday~~ Wednesday.

General British politics discussion thread

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