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NI Census 2021

1810121314

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 11,629 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Absolutely. UI is the worse case scenario.

    the autonomy could be a range of things. Some of your politicians are describing a form of autonomy. Then once we get that we will push for increasing the autonomy as much as possible. That’s logical and inevitable.

    are you saying you would accept no level of autonomy- I hope you do as it will ensure there is no UI by securing the moderates.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,154 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    What do you require this 'autonomy' for?

    Given Unionist rights and identity (as will the rights and identities of all others) will be protected in a new constitution, what do you need autonomy for?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,630 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    Having TDs does not mean being in government. SF have plenty of TDs. Those comfortable in NI currently will be concerned about SF having authority over staunch, loyalist areas. A way has to be found to resolve this.

    It would not be continued partition.


    There is no 'UI by the terms of the GFA'. Nothing is spelt out as to how it would function. That's why we're having the debate. If you want a UI then you have to win over those in NI right now who are comfortable with the status quo. Recent census shows 29% identify as Irish. Not enough basis there any time soon for the kind of UI people on here seem to think is possible in the near future. Most people in NI identify as British or Northern Irish. How are they to be won over in a border poll if they would stand to lose influence rather than gain it?

    It's not tantamount to a veto; it's a stake in the decision-making progress. They wouldn't have more or less influence than other members of the cabinet.

    The constitution of a UI would have to be written anew. If you aren't offering those settled in NI presently clout in a UI, why would they bother voting for it?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,154 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Seriously, are you proposing that Unionists have an automatic pre-ordained seat at Cabinet?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,630 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    I refer you to the article posted earlier in the Irish News on FF's Jim O'Callaghan:

    He believes unionist parties would "consistently have a part to play in the formation of governments in a united Ireland".


    "In short, unionism in a new united Ireland would have a much greater influence in the governance of a new united Ireland than it currently enjoys in the governance of the United Kingdom," he is expected to say.


    Nonetheless, he suggests that to ensure that pro-union parties retain influence, there could be a requirement in the new constitution that an agreed number of cabinet posts be filled by representatives of unionist parties.


    Mr O'Callaghan believes that a post-unification Ireland should retain a bicameral system, with one house sitting in Dublin and the other sitting in Stormont.

    Most pundits seem to expect if SF are to go into government in the south, it will be alongside FF. If these are the noises coming from FF, then that is likely where the debate on unity is heading. Not going to be a good look if the coalition partners in government can't agree on how a potential UI will function. I'm not aware of serious proposals put forward in recent times by politicians on unity that don't involve unionists having considerable sway.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,154 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I refer you this phrase in his musings,

     'there could'

    What happens if northern nationalists demand equal rights?

    Nobody seems to want to answer the question about 'what this autonomy is for' if all identity rights are enshrined in the constitution.  



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,232 ✭✭✭realdanbreen


    In fairness you seem to be very much with it for a guy in his late 80's !



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    All this autonomy talk is so they feel special. That's all. Unionism hates equality as you well know. And their enablers within Partitionism need a slap back into reality.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,630 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    Northern nationalists would have equal rights (if not more) since they would be represented by the largest power bloc.

    What it boils down to, ultimately, is the Irish establishment will not proceed with any plan that could see staunch loyalist areas under the direct influence of nationalist politicians only. They will come up with whatever proposal they have to in order to avoid that scenario because they are worried about civil war. And it is the Irish establishment that will be the ones who devise the blue paper that the border poll will be based on. Anyone that thinks FF or FG are going to countenance allowing SF have control over East Belfast, North Antrim etc. when they can't even stomach SF running the 26 are kidding themselves.



  • Registered Users Posts: 537 ✭✭✭Speedline


    So partition on a smaller scale is what that looks like.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,961 ✭✭✭deirdremf


    I don't see that as being a runner.

    What I could countenance would be four provincial assemblies each with a lot of local powers. Ulster would of course include Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan.

    It'd be good to move some powers out of Dublin and allow some form of genuine local government, rather than the current county manager system which completely negates the idea of local government.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,961 ✭✭✭deirdremf


    Which other languages are native only in Ireland? I'd be very happy to see favourable treatment given to any such languages.

    Lznguages such as Polish etc could be given rights on a reciprocable basis, i.e. the same rights for Irish speakers in Poland as there are for Polish speakers here!😉



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,630 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,961 ✭✭✭deirdremf


    Perhaps a good starting point might be to look at how much - actually how little - Unionists were discriminated against under our current constitution.

    Now I did not say how comfortable or uncomfortable they felt. Actual discrimination on the basis of being unionists, or evenas a proxy, on the basis of their religion (although many southern unionists were from a catholic background, such as Conor Cruise O'Brien).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,415 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Won't work, because Limerick and Waterford people won't vote for Cork to take them over. The only workable federal solution involves the existing states.

    Local government in Ireland has proven itself spectacularly unfit for purpose.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,415 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    " All ethnic groups of the People’s Republic of China are equal. The state shall protect the lawful rights and interests of all ethnic minorities and uphold and promote relations of equality, unity, mutual assistance and harmony among all ethnic groups. Discrimination against and oppression of any ethnic group are prohibited; any act that undermines the unity of ethnic groups or creates divisions among them is prohibited.

    The state shall, in light of the characteristics and needs of all ethnic minorities, assist all ethnic minority areas in accelerating their economic and cultural development.

    All areas inhabited by ethnic minorities shall practice regional autonomy, establish autonomous organs, and exercise the power to self-govern. All ethnic autonomous areas are inseparable parts of the People’s Republic of China.

    All ethnic groups shall have the freedom to use and develop their own spoken and written languages and to preserve or reform their own traditions and customs."

    It really doesn't matter what a constitution says, does it?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,154 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    How would nationalists have equal rights?

    You are proposing that before the electorate vote in a GE, Unionists will already have seats at cabinet?

    That is unworkable stuff.

    Also, you are saying that even if SF are in power, FG/FF will still be the ultimate power?

    Mad stuff tbh.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,154 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Not in China anyway. I wonder why that is?

    Are you saying we will turn into a totalitarian state?

    Project fear is underway.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,415 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    No, never said that, once again, you put words in other posters' mouths. Respond to the point raised, not the one you imagine or wish was raised.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,154 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The constitution matters here, always did and people have been protected by it and have challenged it.

    You suggest that will end in a UI.

    Project Fear.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,629 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Ulster-Scot’s for one.

    Are you suggesting we will have tri-language signs across Ireland. That would be madness



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,629 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Is that a serious question or will you just duck and dive when you are given examples.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,961 ✭✭✭deirdremf


    SF would go into government with anyone who gave them a majority AND allowed them to apply their policies, or most of them. If the UUP did that (unlikely, but you never know) then SF would form a coalition with them if they were the best fit. More likely - to be realistic - UUP would form a coalition with the conservative wing: FF-FG-GP.

    As for unionists voting to end partition, well they won't do that. Any unionist who votes to end the "union" by definition is not a unionist. An ex-unionist perhaps, a would-be unionist, again maybe, but more like a realist than a unionist.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,415 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    That is not what I said, it is what you think I said, or what you want to believe I said, or what you want to twist from what I said.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,154 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    So nothing to worry about then. We are not remotely like a totalitarian country and if we all take part in the construction of a new constitution which treats all equally and has built in protection, no reason why we cannot prosper as a UI.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,415 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The point I am making, which appears to be flying over your head, is that constitutional protections, as you suggest, will not be enough to persuade the middle ground for a united Ireland.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,154 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Nothing will persuade them according to you.

    Yet those who identify as British have dropped 9% in the census. The tides are on the move blanch.

    Another raft are about to find out that the Union they revere will not protect them and will throw them under a bus. The tide will shift a bit more when that realisation sinks in.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,630 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    Unworkable? It's literally the Stormont system. It's called mandatory power-sharing.

    Not sure what you mean in relation to FG/FF being the ultimate power. I'm saying if SF want to put forward proposals for a border poll blue paper, they will surely need the support of their coalition partner or the whole thing becomes fragile from the off.

    What's mad stuff is thinking a UI is going to be what we have in the 26 but on a 32 county basis. No party down here - including SF - will be offering that when it comes time to put this stuff down on paper. Not sure you appreciate the level of compromise that will be involved. And we haven't even got to the cultural stuff, i.e. flags, anthems, etc.

    If there is no requirement for the biggest party to take on board unionists in government, why would they bother? You think a unionist party is going to go begging to be given a seat in government when it will just lead to them being called 'Lundy' and 'traitor' by the usual suspects? What do you do if unionists decide to boycott an assembly without power-sharing? What do you do if they decide to 'take a stand' against a SF-led government taking decisions that affect East Belfast or North Antrim? It's for these reasons the Irish establishment won't let such a situation arise.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,154 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    A UI will come about because Stormont and NI has failed (In my opinion it already has by any metric you care to use)

    It is 'unworkable', it isn't working at the minute.. Now you want to reconstitute it. It's bonkers thinking.

    What I meant about 'ultimate power' is that you seem to think if they successfully bring forward propospals and win approval that there is a 'higher power/establishment' that can stop that. There isn't.

    I am quite happy to change flag, anthem etc. BTW



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,630 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    I don't want to reconstitute Stormont. My preference would be for one assembly for the island. But I think it's obvious the way things are going that such an assembly would have some manner of power-sharing built in. The most likely alternative, which I wouldn't want, is a situation where Stormont gets retained and we have a two assembly system.

    When I say 'establishment' I mean the established parties, i.e. FG and FF. I can't see either of them going along with a plan that would see unionists left without significant representation. They will be too spooked by the idea, and they are the ones that will have a big say on whatever paper gets out forward.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,961 ✭✭✭deirdremf


    and what area do you think this would encompass? As far as I can see, the only areas where there is a secure Protestant majority are the centre and northwest of Co Antrim, and the Northern half of Co Down - and even there, you have two problems. The first is that these areas are not contiguous and the second is that when push comes to shove many Protestants will just accept the new status quo, so you may not have sufficient numbers even in this heartland of yours.

    All other areas have too many CNRs to be included in your new autonomy. But if you feel it is worth it, go for it. Two half-counties out of six. Sorry, I mean out of thirty-two!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,961 ✭✭✭deirdremf


    While it is nice that a few terrified unionists are starting to engage, the problem with this is that it may no longer be FFG making the decisions. In the same way that much, even most of unionism has been refusing to engage the whole way along leaving them now in a very weak position, it may now be too late to hitch yourselves to FFG. They have been sinking, and if by any chance they do not form the next government you will be left up shít creek. And only SF will be there to throw you a rope.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,629 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    You a naively sectarianising it. Do you really think it’s only protestants that feel northern Irish ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Do you know why power sharing came about in the first place?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    What's so awful about living in a UI brought about by the democratic decision of your compatriots?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,154 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Do you accept the NI identity is not a homogenous one. That it is split three ways on the constitutional question, agnostic, pro the UK Union and pro a UI?

    Do you accept the biggest uptake in the NI identity is those moving away from a British identity and who may continue moving towards wanting a new way of being governed? Persuadable in other words.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,961 ✭✭✭deirdremf


    Ulster scots is native to Ireland? Not according to the Ulster Scots Agency, it isn't.

    Where does Ulster-Scots come from?

    The Scots language came to Ulster with the Scottish settlers of the Plantation in the early seventeenth century. Its presence was sustained and reinforced by later migrations and by the strong social and economic ties across the narrow North Channel.

    There's a hint in the word "Scots" there. It's at best a dialect of the Scottish version of English; at worst it's a version of English with a few Scottish-sounding words. And they don't even roll their Rs like the Scottish do.

    And for this very reason, their website is almost entirely in standard English. This makes it hard to work out what exactly they are promoting, apart from highland dancing, Lambeg drums along with a touch of a funny version of English.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Well, they had to be appeased you see. Couldn't have a beefed up Foras na Gaeilge etc without an Ulster Scots Agency.

    Unionism is exhaustingly childish.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,961 ✭✭✭deirdremf


    So you want to split the 6 counties three ways then, do you? The unionist majority area, the "Northern Irish" majority area, and the CNR majority area? And maybe you could split off a fourth bit, where none of the above are in the majority. Spiffing idea, old chap.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,154 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    All that hassle when they can have guaranteed pre-ordained cabinet seats in a UI government? 😁



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,689 ✭✭✭ittakestwo


    It is not spelt out how a UI will function in the GFA but it is spelt out how it happens.... both jurisdictions of Ireland need a border poll to pass.


    A border poll wont be called unless it looks like the majority want it north and south. So untill then the final details of what it will look like wont be known.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,689 ✭✭✭ittakestwo


    In the case of a UI, what would this new NI boundary look like that wants to break off and become autonomous. Given belfast city now has more nationlist than unionists would it take belfast as the capital city or would you have to have leave it. Would you put a wall throught the city and take the east side?

    This new NI would never be let back into the UK and would be breaking the GFA it was. It would probably not let join the commonwealth either and perhaps the UK would even revoke British citizenship for its inhabitants due to the contention it would cause.


    Ireland was gerrymandered once and it was not a success . Dublin and London wont let it happen again and staunch unionists have to get over it if there is a UI created by the terms of the GFA



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,629 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Fair question. Made me think.

    not sure I’d use the word ‘awful’.

    A ‘deep sadness’ may be more appropriate. I guess (and I’m only guessing) it would be same for you if England took over ROI and ensured their culture would dominate. You would come under the monarchy. Your main news would begin each evening with a nod to the reformation and young English people would regularly sing celebratory sungs about the Paras, and mock your grief, etc, etc, etc

    it’s not easy to explain. It would be devastating for most in the unionist community. It is why Arlene would have to consider leaving; a thought I would also have to process.

    I could see a statue like this being placed outside Belfast city hall as both appropriate and helpful.

    I actually don’t know if most of us would be demoralised and broken or energised and emboldened. I don’t think we’d land anywhere in between.




  • Registered Users Posts: 11,629 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    like any identity, to try and put it in a box is like herding cats.

    what’s most refreshing and admirable about Northern Irish Identity is that unlike Irish, English, etc, it is owned by, and has be chosen voluntarily by, those who connect to it. This is unusual the world over. I think it is what makes it so special to belong to and shows itself in many ways eg the passion of NI sports fans.

    I guess the one obvious collective belief/value across everyone who describes themselves as Northern Irish is a determination that Northern Ireland exists. Indeed many people used to wear T-shirts etc with “we exist” on them (I have one in the cupboard I think) - That was sad but no one feels that need anymore as the census etc demonstrates that everyone know ‘we exist’ and we are the fastest growing identity on these islands.

    So I hope you keep insisting NI must be airbrushed away, as there is no surer way to ensure a very heathy anti-UI vote remains. Keep up your good work 👍



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,629 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Will there you go. You can’t hide it.

    anyhow you contradict yourself. You tell us it’s Scots and then in same post you tell us it’s different from Scots. You pretty much identify it’s uniqueness to this island in your post. Some areas of roi have had a big impact on its development.

    that said I have zero interest in any hobby/cultural language. I am only interested in languages that have a communication purpose and I am coping fine with English. I enjoy other aspects of Ulster Scots culture.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,629 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Now you are just making stuff up. I am northern Irish and want Northern Ireland to stay together. If you would give us Donegal as well I’d take it 🙂



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,629 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Fear of of devolved institutions and the increasing northern Irish identity evidenced in the census has lead you to paint scenarios of walls running through Belfast.

    you do realise that walls went up in Belfast to separate Protestants from catholics in in the 1800s during the short period in history that Ireland was United. They went up at the insistence of the Catholic Church, not in fear of physical harm but rather to keep catholics pure and not to be infected by heathen Protestants. The sectarianism and hatred is embarrassing isn’t it?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,154 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The British identity is a 'chosen' one too, certainly if you were born in Ireland.

    And the problem with the 'we exist' thing is that it highlights insecurity and nothing much else.

    And it has yet to be demonstrated how the NI identity would vote when a plan for a UI is presented to them. I fancy most of them will be persuadeable or choose to remain 'Irish' as that is the only country in their title. People are casting off the 'British' identity and more will when the British prove yet again that they don't care a jot for NI when it comes to their own interests.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,629 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Oh absolutely it highlighted an insecurity, but the point I am making is that that is in the past. The ‘we exist’ T-shirts are gone. We are the fastest growing identity on these islands (And maybe anywhere).

    you completely misunderstand the NI identity if you think it demonstrates any desire to be run by roi. Try telling the North or South Koreans that the name of the country suggests they would be happy to be ruled by their neighbour.

    the census was a huge disappointment to Irish republicans who inevitably describe themselves as Irish only They watched this identity that they hate (NI) take leaps forward , while they had to come to terms with the fact that 100 years ago 33% described themselves as Irish only and today that has dropped into the 20s. Project UI is in big trouble



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,154 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Ahem

    This shows a fall in the number of people who identify as ‘British only’ fell from 39.9% to 31.9%. In contrast, there has been a rise in the number of people who identify as ‘Irish only’, up from 457,500 to 554,400, (33.3%)

    And I wouldn't be calling a 2% rise 'leaps forward'.

    Those who identify as 'Northern Irish' was 31.5%, up from 533,100 people (29.4%) in 2011. 

    There is also this stark reminder that NI is changing fundamentally.

    But only a minority of 40% of the total population considered themselves exclusively British.

    This rose to 48%, still a minority, when multiple identities such as British and Northern Irish (6.2%) were included in the count.


    The strategic danger here again for Unionism and partitionists is to assume the Northern Irish identity is at one on the constitutional question.



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