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Softening house market?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,385 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Well it isn't a great sign, buffer-wise or attitude wise, if one is having to plan months in advance to top up that investment mortgage to go on a holiday. Having to fund fairly routine day-to-day expenses on credit (and then making snide comments to some other poster about that poster drinking cheap coffee in the dark or whatever it was before the post was deleted).



  • Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify



    Was shocked at this price. Why so low? Building cost?



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,385 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    You're only really buying a site which will have a fairly certain chance of obtaining planning permission, albeit one where you might be restricted what you can do in order to make sure that you preserve the existing structure too



  • Administrators Posts: 53,735 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    I would agree, you're basically buying the site. I doubt there'd be any requirement to preserve that existing structure, it's pure junk with no redeeming features or qualities.

    It's also possible buying this site would let you get around the local needs requirement as there's already a house there, though I think that would depend on if it's deemed habitable or not in it's current state.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,385 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    There would usually be conditions to incorporate an old vernacular structure into any house. That appears to be an old cottage. I don't see any pipes/sinks and there is possibly only an outside toilet. So I reckon you could be fairly certain you'd have to incorporate it.

    It doesn't depend on whether the house is currently habitable. Just whether there is a house there. What constitutes a "house" may be open to debate. You hear stories of people where there is an old structure and they are able to go back on old maps etc. to prove that there was a house there in order to increase their chances of getting permission.

    Local needs wouldn't be relevant for that site as the house is already there. That doesn't mean you'll get permission to change it to what you want though! I know a man who couldn't get permission for a new house but was able to get permission to build onto an old clay walled cottage that hadn't been lived in for about 70 years and had instead been used as a shed for that time. But he had to keep the old clay walls and renovate the old cottage and basically build a separate building out the back joined onto it if you know what I mean.



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  • Administrators Posts: 53,735 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    I'm pretty sure you can only get around the local needs if the house on the land is deemed habitable, which as far as I remember means a roof and services.

    Others who are more knowledgable on here will confirm.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,385 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    I think the "roof" thing is just an old "rule of thumb" that people used to say. "Services" shouldn't matter. Which ones would you include? ESB - well you can just connect. Water main - plenty of houses have wells. Sewerage pipe - plenty of houses have septic tanks.

    Obviously the more intact it is the better. But that doesn't mean you won't get it if say the roof has been gone for a few years. Especially if it is an old traditional building and you are going to "preserve" it by doing it up



  • Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    Not been able to build on it would explain that valuation. As a site with planning permission it would be worth at least 275k.

    I remember looking at an old cottage in another part of wicklow (far worse than this). I was trying to get guidance from the council and they were no help. Solicitor did mention services been important.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,385 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Those kinds of valuations are madness too. Because permission in a given location is fairly arbitrary in the sense that if you can get it in this field, you could probably also get it in the field next door. That is within the remit of the State and controlled by it, and yet it allows that kind of scenario to develop....Rather than say zoning a specific field as a cluster and then allowing someone to sit on it to hold others to ransom, why not "provisionally rezone" a stretch of 10 fields beside each other and say that there will be one cluster there and the first to sell/get permission/lock-it-in gets the available cluster.


    The fact there is an existing house there may restrict what you can do or cause additional building expense compared to a greenfield site. Or it may just be that the asking may be low relative to the locality to drum up interest.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    Myhome


    10 Oct 2021 12,242

    11 Oct 2022 16,365 

    Increase of 33% in supply over last year. Increase seems to be holding up.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,128 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    How does this compare to 2019?

    I think comparing this year to COVID years isn't going to give a realistic impression of the market.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,148 ✭✭✭COH


    I wonder how much of this is a bubble of small landlords leaving the market in a hurry.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    Don't know, only started keeping track last year. I think someone mentioned 22k in 2019, so still a way to go if true.



  • Registered Users Posts: 132 ✭✭AySeeDoubleYeh


    Yeah several of the houses i've viewed recently are coming out of like 10+ year tenancies. Tbh these houses are often D/E rated and there is some value to be had.



  • Registered Users Posts: 49 keane10


    The house we are buying had an 8+ year tenancy at ridiculously low rent. Vendor (investment, lives in another country) couldn't raise the rent to current levels so is getting out.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    A friend of mine is looking at a few houses in Kilkenny. There seems to be one estate (Rose Hill) near the city that currently has 8 properties for sale on Daft. Does anyone know if there is any issues in that estate, seems odd to have so many properties from one estate for sale at once? One house which is nicely kept and decorated dropped from €470k to €399k, which is bizarre.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,577 ✭✭✭✭callaway92


    Massive Social Housing population in there. Perhaps issues in that sense?



  • Registered Users Posts: 160 ✭✭Calculator123


    The area I'm monitoring is rural with limited stock but most asking prices are still on the high side, some of which are very optimistic.

    There are three almost identical houses in same estate this year:

    House A sold in January

    House B sold in September

    House C still for sale (since spring) at a whopping 80% higher asking price than House A sold and 50% higher than House B sold.

    I'm led to believe there is an offer on it for close to asking but I'm dubious. It seems like such as outrageous gap to think that anyone would pay so much more than their neighbours in same calendar year.

    Will be an interesting bell weather if it does sell and when we can see the property price register record.



  • Registered Users Posts: 617 ✭✭✭lordleitrim


    Duplex own door properties seem to getting zero interest. A friend of mine has his on market for months but with nobody viewing it so his family can't buy a semi d which he has top up mortgage approval for. Another one near me has had its asking price reduced on Daft. Other identical properties were being snapped up in weeks last Spring at well in excess of asking prices before the interest rates and energy prices started going crazy.

    I think we'll have a radically different picture of the property market come January once the next ECB rate increase (or two) kick in combined with the soaring winter cost of living expenses kick in.

    If you are in a position to hold off buying for a few more months, you could save 10s of 1000s.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Yes, its a ever changing scenario but where are the houses coming from? Take your friend for example, was he not willing to drop the price of his duplex? People will just stay put if they cant sell at high price unless its an investment etc.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 192 ✭✭IWW2900


    Cue the hoard of people coming to tell you that you are wrong, because of supply.

    Oh and if prices go down, you wouldnt get a mortgage anyway.

    The hoard talk is dangerous on this forum, especially because its led by clueless. Fed about to raise rates by 100 basis points, cannot see how ECB cannot follow.



  • Registered Users Posts: 764 ✭✭✭6ix


    Even with big rate hikes, you won't necessarily see big price drops.

    This podcast looks at that scenario in the US where rates have gone up to 7%. It forecasts a big slowdown in sales activity but small price decreases of -3% for 2023, which, considering the prices rises since 2020 is negligible. It's just one bank's opinion but there's decent rationale behind it if you listen.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-10/odd-lots-podcast-what-s-going-on-with-home-prices-and-mortgage-rates

    We're looking to trade up and would love prices to drop as it would save us money, but I really can't see any significant drops at the moment. In the areas we're looking (Dublin), there's a serious undersupply of 4 bed homes and a lot of people looking to buy them.


    Edit: podcast link in Spotify in case anyone is interested.

    https://open.spotify.com/episode/10o40yxvTEYrBKW8WalqzI?si=61d0f43b49dc44fd



  • Registered Users Posts: 271 ✭✭tom_murphy112


    I bought in 2008, I still remember being outbid for houses right up till March of 2008. Houses were getting outbid like it is today (albeit maybe like 30~40k, not 100k). Only few months later the whole thing went from a buzz of activity to dying. 

    The house I ended up buying in May had no active offers and the previous person had dropped his offer. I got a nice 30k off the asking price. I personally thing I made the best choice, as the bank wouldn't lend me and the missus what they did back in the day !

    The market can go anywhere in months.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,212 ✭✭✭Viscount Aggro


    I'm selling in South Dublin now.

    Is not going well.

    Probate valuations done at 600k, a few months ago.

    I'm on at 550k.

    A few group viewings, one offer at 495k.

    It's not looking good.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,405 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    Not to sound alarmist but it sounds like the arse is falling out of the market, especially the higher end stuff



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,744 ✭✭✭Brock Turnpike




  • Registered Users Posts: 19,405 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    The price drop trend that’s been referenced here. Maybe arse falling is a tad dramatic but there’s definitely a “correction” going on



  • Registered Users Posts: 398 ✭✭jimmybobbyschweiz


    Well, the sustainability of €750k+ south Dublin semi-Ds in the back arse of the suburbs, away from the Dart line never seemed to dawn on a lot of people. I've seen fairly basic houses with not a lot of floor space or else they need a lot of work in old biddy estates in Stillorgan, Kilmacud, Rathfarnham etc. Absolute mayhem the last 5 years thinking these are worth anything like they are asking

    Some examples up there now with hopeless asking prices;

    A lot of South Dublin will get a reality check as the whole charade falls apart.



  • Administrators Posts: 53,735 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    You do realise that Stlllorgan, Churchtown and Kilmacud are all on the green Luas line, right? Probably the best public transport corridor in the country.

    Houses along the green Luas are highly, highly desirable.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,212 ✭✭✭Viscount Aggro


    and now highly unaffordable by most people, even with 2 incomes.

    the ponzi scheme is unfolding.

    building houses and selling them to each other.



This discussion has been closed.
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