Can the economy survive a decreasing population?

Ubbquittious · 13-10-2022 6:24pm #1

The population here has been steadily increasing and will continue to do so for a while but many countries have already peaked and are seeing declining numbers. This will happen in Ireland too. At first everything will be grand, then you run into a few problems

For one you are relying on a much smaller pool of young people to pay the pensions of loads of old people.

As people start to die off, there will be nobody to fill their empty houses. Some will be used as holiday homes, pent up demand but after a few years there will be literally nobody stuck for a house. This means certain houses will be practically worthless (this is already happening in Japan and places). So for young people there will be no need to go out and burden themselves with 30 years of mortgage debt because they can just buy a house with what's in their back pocket. The housing/mortgage/artificial scarcity of houses thing is a huge money spinner these days. Can it be unwound in a peaceful manner?

dxhound2005 · 13-10-2022 6:31pm

Retirement age in Japan was 60 in 2012, now 64 and going up to 70 in future. That will be the way in economies where people are living longer than in the past.

Strumms · 13-10-2022 6:33pm

The population is projected to grow up to 2051.

it won’t stop there as the CSO study only went up to 2051.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-plfp/populationandlabourforceprojections2017-2051/populationprojectionsresults/

Study was done in 2015/2016 so you can say it’s on the conservative side 😏 and hadn’t the Ukraine situation or other drivers factored in.

births will fall, the number of Irish people will likely fall but the population will increase..

igCorcaigh · 13-10-2022 8:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119740696#Comment_119740696

Yes, and I think Spain too.

I can see a future where Western countries are competing for skilled immigration, if that isn't already happening.

Ubbquittious · 13-10-2022 8:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119741191#Comment_119741191

Lots of countries will be looking to boost their numbers by importing people from the big baby-producing countries of the world like Nigeria. The Netherlands have been at this since the 70's and before

Bit cynical · 13-10-2022 8:23pm

Yes, I think an economy can survive a decreasing population provided the decrease is not too severe. In a decreasing population there is an increased burden on working-age people but not an infinitely greater one. It is harder but not impossible.

Kurooi · 13-10-2022 8:55pm

I would argue the issue is the demographic shift, not the population. Depends what you mean by survive. I think the economic policy in the future has to change. Not enough emphasis is placed on how much modern Western economies rely on growth. Accumulating more debt, more spending, all to fuel growth, and that growth straightens the wrong decisions, a country as a whole can be wasteful so long as the financials are up. Growth will slow down with a decline in the working population, and slowly we realise those economics don't apply. We need to be fiscally prudent, become a more mature economy.

I'd be extremely skeptical of the idea that immigration will fix this issue. It is no coincidence some countries have a massive population growth. Their culture and family structure allows for it, a woman will stay at home take care of the elderly, raise many children, daughters even older stay and help out. One man will support many generations. If the new people coming in don't increase the % of working population in employment, they're not having a positive impact at all. Nothing to be against, just that this is hardly 1 to 1 replacement with what you see today in Ireland, an economy running on young people, pretty much every adult with a pair of hands right now is working, and they're fiercely independent. Besides it all goes against the Ireland we're heading for right now. Are we planning to house those big families in the apartment shares?

Some blessing, Ireland right now has one of the best outlooks of the EU as far as this demographic issue goes. I think that's significant, as we will witness other EU countries tackle this issue and can inform ourselves accordingly.

ancapailldorcha · 14-10-2022 9:56am

Of course.

The real question is what changes will be made to adapt to the new population dynamics. Pensions have become a Ponzi scheme and in the short term, the retirement ages are increasing all across the world in order to cope with ageing populations. In the long term, I don't know what'll happen.

We're probably going to see serious increases in both immigration and automation. We've locked whole demographics out of home ownership while wagging the finger at them for being feckless. They're not feckless so they can't win. We're going to see some serious consequence from this long term with hints in Russia, China and Japan.

ELM327 · 14-10-2022 9:58am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119741216#Comment_119741216

That only works if you import people that work though.

We're at it already, importing doctors etc from the likes of india

ancapailldorcha · 14-10-2022 10:35am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119742924#Comment_119742924

That's what's already happening anyway.

ELM327 · 14-10-2022 10:37am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119743070#Comment_119743070

That's literally what I said. "We're at it anyway"

Larbre34 · 14-10-2022 10:44am

Your concern should be about society, not the economy.

A well managed economy should serve the society it exists with.

But the answer is still yes. As the lads have said we are looking at demographic decline around mid-century and we have plenty of live examples happening around the World that are the subject of much study.

Also that figure doesn't take immigration into account. We should also be planning to accept the migrants we need to cushion an aging population. And the way the World is going, I can't see Ireland becoming any less attractive for ambitious migrants any time soon.

Ubbquittious · 14-10-2022 11:13am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119742924#Comment_119742924

There will be an upsurge in the number of countries pursuing the same strategy. I can see countries like India implementing something that a would be emigrant doctor would have to pay some number of 100,000's in order to be allowed leave the country

AndrewJRenko · 14-10-2022 11:53am

The real question is whether the planet or our island can survive an increasing population. We face many challenges with rising sea levels and food security. As large parts of north Africa become uninhabitable, there is no fence or barrier that will hold back mass emigration from those regions.

Ray Palmer · 14-10-2022 11:55am

We as a country are under populated at about a third of what we should have due to the famine and population exodus. One of the reasons we can't match other countries in Europe for cost and services. There aren't enough of us and economies of scale.

The amount of people that complain about Ireland not having the same as vastly richer and dramatically larger populations always reminds me how little though goes into peoples' anger.

14-10-2022 12:34pm

Ireland is not underpopulated. There's reasons for why the famine happened and that ties into the larger population that existed back then.

This country doesn't need a large population to remain an effective society or economy. We don't have the manufacturing bases of other larger countries, nor the heavy reliance on labour for farming or mining. Instead., what we do have could easily be streamlined to reduce the demands for labour.

The problem with immigration is that a fair whack of them are unskilled or only marginally skilled, requiring heavy investment to bring them up to the standards generally required by the regulated systems of first world nations. As such, these migrants are the most prone to be affected by fluctuations in the economy, and most likely to end up on welfare for extended periods. Their ability to get new employment is limited because we don't have the large population of other nations, and don't need the services industry (with cheap labour) to cater for it. Low skilled labour is dangerous to western economies because the scope for them to break the camels back is too high, as they rarely have the means to be entirely independent.

Immigration of skilled labour is key here, as they're most capable of gaining new employment should they lose their current. They're also most capable of packing up and leaving should the economy no longer be able to support them. And then return when/if it does.

Attention to the cultures immigrating should be considered too, as their conflicts don't stay in their home countries.. nor does the inclination towards welfare, domestic abuse, drug abuse, etc. There should be greater attention given to screening potential new citizens.. because once they settle here, they're here forever. As a first world nation, we don't need to go begging for immigrants, and should be aiming to build a population most likely to mesh together easily, and without the problems emerging in other European nations.

Cause if we continue to ignore the culture aspects of immigration, pointing to high-minded expressions of virtue, then the economy won't do very well, and neither will society.

Ubbquittious · 14-10-2022 12:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119743110#Comment_119743110

Ha pffft that system has been turned on it's arse years ago by vested interests, we are only scraps of meat now used to feed the economy and so many difficult changes need to be made to bring it back to the way it should be

timmyntc · 14-10-2022 1:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119742924#Comment_119742924

We do import a lot of doctors and nurses and the like - however as our population goes up from immigration, the % working may actually decrease. A number of nationalities for some reason are more likely to be unemployed in this country compared to the Irish or mainland europeans.

This is the big glaringly obvious hole in the plan - how are we to rely solely on immigrants to prop-up the pension bubble if they are less likely to have gainful employment here than the irish?

I think we will have to radically overhaul the PRSI system in this country - JSA/JSB and pensions will all be based on PRSI contributions, with the lowest levels being very low as to be unattractive to any possible welfare tourists.

Strumms · 14-10-2022 1:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119743458#Comment_119743458

We have it easier as regards controlling immigration…We are an island nation. Just need to exit the EU to enjoy the benefits of it.

the EU need to cop on and change immigration policy before it’s too late. unlikely they will however. They are under a woke / multiculturalism infatuation choke hold. The EU has failed now, jokeshop.

Africa is a continent where crime is everywhere , it’s a polluting continent which regularly has its states appear in the most polluted countries. A list I saw recently and NO EU country features in the top 30 most polluting countries…yet Africa… all over it. They’ve failed themselves so why is the EU / Europe and its citizens…sent on a highway of uncertainty, failure, bankruptcy and danger because of what Africa and Africans largely did to themselves ?

not our fault, due to limp wristed scrambled brain politicians, we and our wellbeing is about to be put into serious jeopardy folks.

Think Covid was challenging, wait till you take in a lload of what will happen next.

Ohhhh. And Ireland isn’t underpopulated, that’s sheer spoof on behalf of multiculturalism advocates, making up lies to pad their agenda. 😏

timmyntc · 14-10-2022 1:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119743468#Comment_119743468

that is complete BS.

Countries with much lower GDP per capita and populations than us have much better transport and other services than us - the idea that you need to be a Germany or Netherlands size country to have anywhere near half-decent public services is a total lie.

mohawk · 14-10-2022 3:04pm

This is the big glaringly obvious hole in the plan - how are we to rely solely on immigrants to prop-up the pension bubble if they are less likely to have gainful employment here than the irish?

Its frustrating that so many think we need immigration to prop up pensions. The more people you have in a country the more pensions you have to pay unless you scrap having a state pension altogether.

I can see how a hospital consultant or someone earning big bucks in tech sector are contributing to paying peoples pensions. I honestly can’t see how a delivery driver on minimum wage and using state supports is helping pay anyones pension.

Now there are immigrants on minimum wage doing very important jobs, such as caters to elderly so it’s probably not possible or wise to restrict immigration to only those who will be earning enough to support themselves.

Star Bingo · 14-10-2022 5:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119741216#Comment_119741216

No no no I can’t be seen with these guys. Not a good look why crease my style man , that’s not how the economy works

riclad · 14-10-2022 8:13pm

i doubt if the hse could survive without the nonnationals ,eg doctors ,nurses ,workers are in many cases coming from eu countrys to work here, we have a housing crisis ,when gardai or nurses cannot afford to buy a house thats a major problem.Gen z may decide to move to other countrys where housing is at a reasonable price.

why study and work hard when you are stuck paying high rent, with little hope of buying a house unless you move to donegal.

ancapailldorcha · 14-10-2022 10:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119746085#Comment_119746085

They're already doing that. You can live in a city like Liverpool for significantly less than what you'd pay in most of Ireland.

Don't get me started on Donegal. It's unbelievably grim.

Ubbquittious · 14-10-2022 10:39pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119746672#Comment_119746672

I like Donegal, some places there are quiet cosy even in the winter. The auld mica would be a curse if you got a house there though

ancapailldorcha · 14-10-2022 10:41pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119746688#Comment_119746688

I like it as well. Great if you want to live as a shut in or go on the tear in a place with the same faces and talk about the EPL. Not a thing wrong with that but if that's not your bag, it's a fierce miserable place.

I'd forgotten about the Mica thing.

Jim2007 · 14-10-2022 11:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119741216#Comment_119741216

There is one little problem with that theory - look at the demographics there is no where to get them from. You remind me of several American bankers who year after year stick with the old story that their bank will hit it big when they crack the Asian market, little realizing that their perspective is out of date.

There have been dramatic increases in productivity and automation over the last five decades and more to come. That plus the fact that Ireland is an net exporter of high value added products means you’ll need less workers not more. Universal income is on the way, I won’t see it but I expect my children will.

Strumms · 15-10-2022 12:51am

Look at the number of employees businesses are loosing..

my gym … NEVER is there more than one receptionist… there used to be three at peak, two off peak. You book classes, renew membership, order your personnel planner etc… ALL online now.

supermarket… it’s clear for all to see how few cashiers, my local Tesco, weird, just loads of empty checkouts..self checkouts the way it’s gone.

so population increases yet opportunities will decrease. Not being able to manage numbers… idiocy, careless and dangerous.

dxhound2005 · 15-10-2022 1:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119746697#Comment_119746697

What do you like about it?

ancapailldorcha · 15-10-2022 3:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119748234#Comment_119748234

Most people are pretty sound, it's very quiet (a double-edge sword), safe and beautiful.

Can the economy survive a decreasing population?

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