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Govt to do 'everything' to prevent evictions - McEntee

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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    It's actually the opposite effect landlords will be experiencing. The state will be buying build-to-rent units which were never going on to the market in the first place.

    They will A: Be supplanting the private landlord sector via cost-rental schemes;

    B: A percentage of these units will be for affordable purchase, further driving down prices acting as a price-setter on the market on a macro level;

    C: Will be migrating away from HAP, which has had a distortative and inflationary effect on the rental sector in general, and has acted as a cross-subsidy to landlords.

    It's bad news all-round I'm afraid, because all signals point to that the State will be doing it at scale. So with that in mind, if the landlord wants to sell, they may sell, but the market is radically changing direction in front of your eyes.



  • Registered Users Posts: 491 ✭✭SwimClub


    Well we will have to agree to disagree, we don't have to engage in any more pointless speculation because the notices to terminate are tracked and reported (even though they don't show the full picture as they don't include landlords selling after their tenants leave without replacing them). If they suddenly drop from recent high levels as you predict we will be able to see that you were right about landlords not selling. Of course if your prediction is wrong and they keep going up and prices don't drop that will just be greedy landlords selling again.

    It must be great to be right all the time :D



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    I never called landlords greedy for selling their properties. They are entitled to sell if they see fit. What I consistently criticize is the expectation that the balance of property rights / tenants rights should always be cut in favour of the landlord (and there is a significant cohort of private landlords that absolutely flip the lid at any minor rebalancing of rights), and to expect that the government will act in their favour in maximising their property rights to the exclusion of the common good at every turn. Not only is it childlike to think that they will, no government has ever got a mandate promising it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,519 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    @Yurt@Yurt2 and @Donald Trump you are both waffling all over the place. You have a serious chip on your shoulder's about LL.

    @Yurt2 if it was simple rebalancing LL would not be running out the door and government would not be trying to stem the tide. The so called rebalancing is also stopping new investors entering, however more critically it is discouraging those who have houses that could be rented for short term accommodation of anything from a few months to a 2-3 years are reluctant to take such a risk.

    You make a number of serious false assumptions. These are mainly based on Chicken Lickens economics that the sky will fall in and LL will be trapped and unable to sell. This is a very good analysis of where we are from Will Goodbody

    We could just as easy see a building hiatus. You glory at the taught of all these apartments coming into government/LA control. However the history of there management of apartment complexes is horrific think Ballymun and I have been into one in Limerick recently and it's only two story.

    For to buy them the government will need to get the builders developers to finish them that will happen on those builders terms. Watch the whinge fest when the costs are revealed.

    @Donald Trump you have this flawed assumptions that it will be existing occupants that will buy these rented premises. This is the problem most of the houses being sold are occupied by families who will generally be unable to get loans to buy them. The eviction hiatus will only encourage more to consider it next year when it ends.

    Your are continually on about LL's whinging. Rather they are pointing out issues with the present system where by risk has been amplified. This risk is encouraging LL to sell, however no replacement investors are coming back in. What is worse is temporary supply where houses would be vacant short term from a few months to a few years has now dried up. No sensible person would consider renting a houses that they will need back in the short term. The risk is far too great.

    I have two rental properties one is a small townhouse which a single man rents and the other is a farmhouse that I have rented to a separated parent and family. The farmhouse will probably go to aerBnB whenever the present tenant's leave whether two months, two years or ten years.

    The townhouse will depend on rent and risk involved. These are rural/small urban properties. However if I had a property in a larger urban area in an RPZ where the rent was seriously under the market rate and only 2-5% of the house value I be looking to exit what ever way and as soon as possible. If there was no loan on it I would sit on it vacant if prices dropped below 10% which I do not think that they will.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Your false assumption is that investors are even able to enter in the current rate environment would they be minded to. Cash buyers maybe, but that's about it. The moritorium changes very little, and people are puffing it up as is the tradition with the property lobby.

    There was no shortage of institutional entrants when money was cheap, let that rattle around for a moment. They're stepping back now because their funny money has dried up.

    LLs will not be exiting in the next 18-24 months as long as inflation is high and interest rates keep ticking up. They'd be suckers to do so. They are enjoying record rental yields and anyone that had their BTL mortgage cleared years ago is making away like a bandit. To sell-up only to leave the property on the market for months as price expectations fall will be madness.

    You yourself are predicting a 10% fall in house prices in the Accomodation & Property Forum. I'd go slightly further and would see 15% percent or slightly more tumbling off peak prices. And once that starts cranking into gear, any first time buyer or upgrader won't pull the trigger until they feel they've got the best return for their money. That's how price expectations work.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,431 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    If in a RPZ the rent gets anchored to a rate at which a person was happy to rent it out at that time. Presumably it was acceptable when they entered that transaction.

    I don't see the huge philosophical issue with giving some form of cost security to a tenant who is effectively paying the mortgage for the owner in many cases. The amount owed in terms of mortgage doesn't increase with rental price increase in the area. If bought with cash, that amount is also fixed even if rental prices subsequently double. In effect, the upside is just being shared with a person who is also contributing (some would say is the main contributor).


    You can tell us how you expect any mooted temporary eviction moratorium would affect you Bass. I would be fairly confident that is will have no direct impact on you. You are arguing about something which will affect a tiny number of people temporarily, but will give security to many other tenants.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,519 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    The RPZ fixed all rents no matter how high or low at that point in time. Traditionally smaller LL's were unwilling to rise the rent on a good tenant and let things run along. Not very business like but it suited them. They then tended on reletting to be increase to the market rate. I remember staying in a house in Limerick for five years and the LL never increased the rent. He collected the third Thursday of every month between 7 and 8pm. By the time we left the rents had gone up by 30%.

    So now a LL like him in a RPZ if he got caught in the wrong part of the cycle has to consider a number of options on reletting, rent again at a below market rate, cash in the investment or leave the property vacant for two years.

    The most obvious choice is and many are taking it is to sell it. This is a reason that rents have increased substantially above the 2% rate because rental properties below the market rate ate being removed from the sector.

    The Hiatus will only make things worse more LL's will exit the market.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    If he collected in cash I'll leave it up to your imagination why he was chipper about not raising the rent. He was saving on the back-end by not filing with you-know-who, and ended up better off than the landlord doing things by the book and by the law.

    Have you ever wondered if he's still swinging by every Thursday to pick up his notes?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,545 ✭✭✭Topgear on Dave


    I take it from your answer Don, you totally avoiding the question yet again, that you've never had to go out and find yourself a place to rent.


    Yet you ventilate at length here all day as if you are some sort of expert in rental market.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,431 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Do the RPZs not work cumulatively? i.e. you don't have to ratchet it up every year so that if you are allowed 2% every year but don't raise it this year, you can bump it up 4% the following year?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,431 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    I don't mean any offence, but if one is struggling to "scrape together" a deposit for rent, while at the same time trying to argue against their own rights, so that they would be left worse off, you'd have to wonder whether that is evidence of a pattern which causes that struggle in the first place.


    People can have bad luck or whatever. Only starting off. Loads of genuine reasons. Seems a bit silly to be arguing against one's own rights though if one was to be in that position.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,519 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    It was 40 ish years ago. There was no other way to pay the rent. All rent was paid in cash. No mobile phones so an agreed time for collect was what happened.

    Never worries me the way the other half live. I try not to put modern day thinkings and apply to events 30, 40 or 70 years ago

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,519 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    No they will lose the fractional percentage on percentage. It might not seem much slightly over a percentage point every right years. However as well as that many LL got shafted after COVID, they had not risen rents for 3-4 years or more again mostly smaller LL's. The new rental rules of 2% or a lower inflation rate screwed them over again I think it was 4% before that. There seems to have been some LL with longer term tenant's who had not increased from 2016 to 2021 that were severely impacted. No good deed in the Irish residential rental market goes unpunished

    The more you waffle the more it's apparent you have no understanding of how the rules effect LL's and how a certain cohort have been left with a bad taste in there mouth.

    The Hiatus on evictions will only encourage more to exit.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    A Landlord who had not increased rent from 2016-2021 (which would have been a marginal case I'm sure you'd conceed) would be entitled to raise rents in-line with the Consumer Price Index (a proxy for inflation). Is that being severely impacted? You're laying it on fairly thick there.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,431 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Right. So you lose 2% of 2%. Whoop-de-do. On an average yearly rental of 24k, you'd be out less than a tenner per year. How miserable would you have to be to be writing walls of texts to complain about that? I don't think you could get away with demanding a pound of flesh in lieu, but you could always try.

    What with losing those big bucks, sure it's no wonder ye all have the victim mentality. Just think, if that continued for another 20 years, the poor landlord could be out almost 200 quid during that time period!!!!!



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,519 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    You missed the part where LL's who let rent reviews rool up git f@@ked over.

    From 2016-2020/21 you could rise by 4% a year or 17/21% depending on if you were in before the 2021 change.

    We always have these marginal cases from you . This marginal case woukld have got 3-4% increase for those 5 years instead of 21.

    @Donald Trump that is a bit more than a f@@king tennen a year.

    As I said in an earlier post the more you waffle the more it is east to see that you and Yurt have no actual understanding of the impact on a large cohort of LL's

    As I said in the ''no good deed in the Irish residential rental market goes unpunished''@Yurt2

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,431 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    The only one who waffles is you Bass. May I suggest that you invest in a calculator.

    24k * 1.02 * 1.02 = 24,969.60

    24k * 1.04 = 24,960.00

    Difference = 9.60.

    Would you like us to set up a gofundme for you to make up the difference?


    If you want to go to 4% per year then the difference massively increases to 38.40 for the 12 months. We may call Ajai Chopra back in to help us on that one.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,519 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    I gave you the cumulative figures. I also gave you details of other minor rebalancing as Yurt puts it that effected smaller LL who did not raise rents continually.

    Below market rent of 500/month on an Apartment in Dublin if not risen between that and 2021 is now about 525. If LL rose it every year it would be 730/ month. LL in RPZ's will no longer not do reviews every twelve months

    As I said the more you and Yurt waffle the more obvious you know f@@kall about the rental market.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,431 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    You're right Bass. I just didn't understand the importance of that 9.60 to you. Make sure that sneaky tenant doesn't try to knock the 60 cents off either.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Well why didn't they increase the rent at all within the permitted margins of the RPZ then? Landlords not increasing in that timeframe would have been highly unusual and I think you're well aware of that. They still get to increase their rent in line with the CPI for that period. Nobody is losing their shirt here. Put the violin away.

    The landlording sector for a number of years were entitled to increase rents well ahead of inflation, and I don't need to tell you that there many landlords out there that weren't shy or apologetic about doing so.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,431 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Bass' figures are of some hypothetical victim landlord who didn't raise the rents at all when they could have raised the rents at 4% per year for 10 years and has only realised it now but decided just to raise them this year.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,519 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    They are not highly unusual there's the large portion of the 5k that are exiting this year, the 3-4k last year and the 5-6k on top of it that will exit next year.

    ROI has probably dropped below 3-4% much better off to sell ASAP and drip feed it into a pension fund.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Look at all that wonga I could have had when I was busy being sound! Said nobody ever.

    The lesser spotted Irish landlord who didn't touch the rent level in 5 years - we need to capture it, study it, and see how we can replicate it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,519 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Sorry Donald I only do increases of 1.5-2k/biennially now. Not in an RPZ, have to be professional and keep the rent as high as possible as at some stage they will change the rules again.

    Remember what I said

    ''no good deed in the Irish residential rental market goes unpunished''

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,431 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    A ROI of 4% would mean you'd be getting 12,000 per year return on a house that you invested 300k in

    Given that your return includes your capital gain (12% or something YoY), what are you doing that you only have 12,000????????



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Since you're being so forthright, what are those 2k increases percentage wise?



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,431 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Well we hear that a lot Bass. The landlords in RPZs are forced to increase their rents even though they don't want to.

    Whereas the ones not in RPZs act rationally and increase them as much as they can. Which they are entitled to do. I've no problem with that. I just find it funny that the ones who are restricted in their increases are the ones saying they never want to increase it. But they still complain



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,519 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    It's ROI on present value

    If you owned a property that was worth 500k and it was earning you 15-20k/ year what would you do. Worry about Johnny and Mary or let the state solve the mess they are making.

    Remember the word below. There are ( however there is less every year as they are exited as fast as possible) some at 40-50% of the market rate.

    I be getting my equity out

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,431 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Well I edited the post before you posted to make it clearer but you picked up the old version.


    Regardless, it is difficult to claim a return of 3-4% when the asset value increases over 10% per year before the income is even included. I don't know your figures. It just seems incorrect. Average rent is 2k per month. Median house price is 280k. Average rent is 8.6% of average house price. So you are up nearly 20% YoY before you take out your expenses.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    To be honest, Bass is screwing the pooch here if he's looking to post in some sort PR excercise for the garden variety landlord.

    At least he's being honest and admitting all he's after is a shakedown of his tenants. As I signposted earlier on in the thread, he's an examplar of a particular strain of landlord looking to max-out annual ROI and he wants capital appreaciation of his asset as well. And he wants the state no where near the arrangement. Sitting tenants can't afford it? F*ck 'em, hit the skids and I'll get in another family/set of tenants to repeat the trick.

    Small wonder we got RPZs and that they're expanding across the country.

    It will be entirely lost on him that his approach is what makes regulations restraining this behaviour necessary.



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