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Softening house market?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,383 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Not quite. Everyone forgets that many businesses availed of massively generous supports. They remember PUP but not the wage subsidy because those people kept getting paid as normal.


    At that point in time, nobody knew how the pandemic would progress.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,024 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    so salaries and capital costs aren’t costs now ? That’s absolutely the correct way to do it and it’s how any sector would do it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,383 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    No. You don't include your "required margin" as an expense. Not sure why you are bothering with your attempted strawman. It's very childish.

    Also if you include the actual costs of outsourcing everything, including the risk, then you actually have no justification for demanding any profit.

    If I want to own a restaurant and then I include as my costs the cost of financing 100% the building and capital (in which case the bank is taking all the risk there), and also include the cost to have all the management outsourced, then what am I bringing to the table to demand an additional "required return"? Even if I do manage to get away with demanding a "required return", it doesn't go into my projected costs. I put in my costs and my income and then I have profit and I compare that profit to my required return to see whether I will proceed.

    If I decide to finance and manage it myself and pay myself a salary 200k to manage the restaurant, and calculate 100k a year for my pocket as compensation for the capital I put in, then why am I adding an extra 15% as a "required return" to my "costs"? That's not part of my costs. My salary is. My charge for the capital is. My "profit" isn't a cost.


    Feel free to try it out with Revenue though. If they come telling you that you owe tax on profits of 100k in your business, you can tell them no, that you actually made a loss of 100k because they didn't take into account your required margin of 200k as an expense 😉



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,024 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    im not sure why you feel it’s childish, re read what you wrote, if you articulated yourself more clearly I wouldn’t have needed to reply in that fashion.

    . If you are doing up your annual accounts, for your expenses do you add in all you time and return required for any capital

    all your time is wages and salaries and capital isn’t free. The rest of the ramble above partially makes sense but then you are conflating two different things anyway.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,526 ✭✭✭kaymin


    The cost of capital you refer to is the interest on debt finance. There is also a cost of the equity finance which the margin reflects. Their business is funded by a combination of debt and equity. Equity shareholders need to get a return otherwise whats the point of investing. If you expect businesses to run with zero return to equity shareholders then no businesses would be started.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    He was talking about looking up stats to see asking price increases. If it's gone sale agreed at 100k over and the asking price is changed to reflect the sale agreed price, it shows up as an increase in asking prices.



  • Registered Users Posts: 493 ✭✭Shauna677


    What is the ber, I can't see it on the listing



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,474 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    It's down at the virtual bottom of the listing.

    A Ber is the energy rating of the house. It goes from A to G with 3 division's in each grade

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,474 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    So you are saying that Cairns a PLC quoted company on the Irish stock exchange is fiddling it's accounts.

    You are away with the fairies. You are waffling again. Anybody working in a publicly quoted company is paid a wage whether it's a the photo copier assistant or the chief financial officer.

    It's profits have to be verified by auditors who you say are allowing the accounts to be fiddled. It's yield on it's shares are about 6%. It's has 650 million tied up in sites and 300 million in ongoing building work.

    It gross margin is 21% and net margin is 15%. It's actual share value is less than 50% of its 2017 price so investors are not exactly rushing to hold the shares of this so called highly profitable company

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,383 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    That's some waffle Bass. You made all that up in your own head. I said nothing about any company. I only referred to the annual SCSI report. Not sure out of which recess you are pulling the other waffle. It has no relevance to anything I said.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,383 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    You are starting to learn Bass. Almost there. Now answer this - How much return should you get on your equity if you have zero equity in?

    Now the next question for you to work out is if builder Johnny claims to finance 100% of his project with debt, how much did he need to put in as equity?


    Regardless, as I said to the other poster, you are free to explain to Revenue that you are putting your "expected margin" down as a cost if you want. See how they respond.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,383 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    As I said childish. You've reached the level of selectively quoting part of a sentence.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,024 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    oh will i just ignore the parts that make no sense? be better Donald.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,217 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    They could sell the site at a loss of 50k and have a loss forward against future profits. It would have the same effect and avoid the risks inherent in building. There is no guarantee they will build for 200k or realise a profit of 50 k. It is not the same as a supermarket trying to clear shelves.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,383 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    just ignore that parts that make no sense


    okey doke. None of your posts make any sense. And given we are now selectively quoting parts of sentences, I will ignore your scutter from now on



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,024 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    that is rich coming from you, but feel free to ignore me.

    If you dont want people taking parts of sentences dont fill your sentences with rubbish.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,383 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    That's a bit silly. Your advice is that builders should never build because of risks involved in building. That would apply at any point in time and in any market.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,884 ✭✭✭deirdremf


    The thing is that we actually know that the FG government brought in a variety of measures, starting in 2012, to put a floor on house price drops, and then encouraged ramping up house prices. They even had houses destroyed in order to stop the fall in more rural areas. They encouraged a scarcity, they encouraged REITs to buy up properties at prices no could compete against and gave them special tax deals that you and I don't get (unless you are a REIT; I'm certainly not one).

    Then again, twenty years ago there were people sying that house prices were unsustainable - it took several years though for the crash to happen. Didn't some fanous financier say that the markets can stay irrational for longer than you can stay in funds?



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,474 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    No what several posters have pointed out to you is that builders will stop building if there is no possible margin.

    Therefore there builders will continue to build of prices drop if the following happens,

    Materials drop in price

    Labour drops in price

    Regulation/ planning/ development costs drop

    They can replace the sites at a lower cost

    Either of the above will allow them to continue to build. They will probably continue in existing sites however they will be reluctant to start the development of newer sites that they owner unless they are replacing them cheaper.

    Every buisness works that way. My profit on an animal is not the cost over his purchase less the finishing costs, it's less the finishing costs and his replacement costs

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,127 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    Materials drop in price - Possible in the next few years if construction worldwide slows, inflation is kept manageable and this war ends.

    Labour drops in price - Doubtful unless construction in Ireland slows.

    Regulation/ planning/ development costs drop - Not a chance.

    They can replace the sites at a lower cost - Doubtful.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,474 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    In 2012 this country was f@@ked if you want to go back there you are welcome. In 2012 the government was trying to restart the economy and trying to balance the budget created by overspending on public services during the noughties and money it put in to save the banks.

    It's had a legacy of unfinished sites and buildings. I do not think there was any substantial number of houses knocked as such. There may have been some shells of houses knocked ( I think there was an accidental death of a child in one such area) on partially completed sites

    There is a group of sub ten houses near me being finished at present. I think the sit was bought from the bank in 2018 ish and has been 90% finished by a small builders who has been in no rush to complete with the way prices were rising.

    Did I see a figure of 2k as the number of units actually knocked or about 2% of total stock by Nama and the banks at the time. Many forget that Nama only took over debts where the liability was over 20 million. These were the really big bigger projects.

    Debts under this were handled by the banks. If I remember rightly the government was very slow on the idea of REITs, it was mainly the pushing of this agenda by ultra left SF, PBPand a few in labour like Roisin Shorthall.

    There think that these REITs would compete with the smaller LL and you would have cheaper rentals. I explained this would not be the outcome but the posters now b!tching about REITs are of the same ilk and persuasion as those so gung-ho for them then.

    Remember the trade unions, the charities, the political left all were telling us that these would provide cheap rental accomodation just like Germany, Scandinavian and other Continental countries. 😂😂😂😂😂 I still laugh at that.

    Let me repeat it was the same type people b!tching about REITs now that wanted them whether politicians or posters on here.

    The government fear of building social housing is having more Ballymuns, Moyrosses, Knocknahenies, the gettos in smaller urban centers. Even most social commentators up until lately were against large scale social housing projects. SF ( PBP ) etc are the only cohort pushing this longer-term .

    I am not a fan of the idea myself

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,383 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    The people moaning about REITs on here appear to be the small time landlords Bass. I mean that in the sense of one or two properties they rent out. I haven't seen anyone else giving out about them.


    I think you might be misremembering if you are recalling that the left wing parties were in favour of big international funds coming in and getting a chunk of the property market here.


    A REIT is just a way of pooling assets and diversifying across properties to reduce some of the risk. That is why they will be more efficient. Basic market theory is that there is no compensation for idiosyncratic risk. You could achieve similar by pooling your own properties together with the properties of 10 of your buddies for example. You'd also have some economies of scale too



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,383 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Every buisness works that way. My profit on an animal is not the cost over his purchase less the finishing costs, it's less the finishing costs and his replacement costs

    But you also won't include the price of buying and financing the land you already own in your expenses for rearing the animal. Nor will you include your required margin per animal as an expense either


    The poster I responded to suggested that the builder should sell the sites for half their cost rather than build on them. They can do that. If they do though then another builder can buy them at the lower price and build on them.

    When the Baron of Ballsbridge was spending 50m+ an acre and asking his missus to "pick a number" to decide how many millions to pay for a house, that is not a ratchet mechanism beyond which he must be protected from the price ever falling below that. Developers outbid each other for sites. If they foolishly pay too much, then they need to accept the consequences. What gives land its value is its zoning. It is usually not a unique feature of the land. That is given by society and should be transferrable to another site by society if it isn't used. It is ridiculous that the authorities would arbitrarily award such a gift to someone in order to allow them to provide houses as part of an implicit social contract, but then sit back and allow the builder to decide not to build until he can get his ransom. Just zone it back to GB and rezone the field beside it for residential instead. We'd see plenty of houses being built then!



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,474 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    You are some waffler DT. I do not give two contenintal f@@ks about them as the saying goes. Where are smaller LL moaning about them.

    The people moaning about them are the people giving out about the high rents and who think there are keeping units empty.

    Yes left wing parties were in favor of REITs. They taught that they would supply housing at similar prices for rent as in Continental countries. Yes they wanted social housing as well but they were pushing REITs and longterm renting.

    There assumptions were flawed. The forgot that longterm rental property in these countries were bought at a cheaper period 30-50+ years ago and we're rented mainly by pension funds in those countries.

    However even that is changing as these funds now look at the capital value of these complexes. There is a growing number of countries where refurbishment is taking place and Joe Sixpack is finding rent increased by 1-2 or 300%


    Anybody that counters the waffling BS you carry on about is said to moan.

    You have posted that you own your own house and are looking to buy a farm. My advice is to stick with the house you will not last in the farming business.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,474 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Financing interest is tax deductible against income as are buying and selling ( solicitor auctioneer etc)costs, any capital investment, sheds housing etc as well as any land improvements are tax deductible similar to any other business.

    Donald you are waffling as I posted in my last post stay away from farming you have not got a clue about it or any business it seems.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,383 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Speaking of waffle, for someone who claims not to give "two contenintal f@@ks about them", isn't it a bit strange that you'd bring them up and paste a wall of text about them.


    Regarding your financial advice as to where to spend my cash, while I thank you for it, I can make up my own mind. It's my cash which I earned. If I want to buy land with it, I will do it. I won't be depending on someone else to pay for it for me, nor for the State to change it's rules if something goes wrong. I can always go back and earn it again should I decide to. It would be easier the next time



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,383 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Oke Doke Bass. If you have your farm bought and paid for and you are doing up your accounts, you can try to claim that the land is worth 25k an acre and include an imaginary interest cost of 1,000 Euro an acre (4%) in your expenses for what you would pay on interest if you were to purchase it today. Come back to us and let us know how you get on with Revenue.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,024 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    I think there is confusion by a poster between what someone can book in their own accounts and what a company would cost a project they would do for a 3rd party.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,383 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    When was the last time you brought your car to a mechanic for a quote on how much it would cost to fix it and he gave you an estimate which included parts, labour, and the interest he would have to pay on a mortgage if he were to buy and finance his premises today?

    Maybe you do get quotes like that.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,024 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    its not what it will cost to fix it, its what he will charge me to fix it, and one would assume he has his labour rate worked out to cover his overheads including the cost of his premises, if he doesnt he wont be in business very long now will he.



This discussion has been closed.
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