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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,919 ✭✭✭enricoh


    There was a pent up demand for young people heading to Oz after covid. But now there's a definite slowdown in hospitality, retail and construction at the minute with jobs getting shedded. Throw in nowhere to rent in the country, the option of living at home in the box room for the winter versus Bondi beach- it's a no brainer!

    There was ads for general operatives in the mines in Oz starting at e100k. Was watching a programme about Irish doctors going to Oz recently, a few lads were interviewed over there n were very happy with their standard of living. They basically didn't have a life in Ireland!



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,018 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    Sorry for not replying, most of the young people I know of are leaving to Australia or America. The main reason is due to better wages and lifestyle, their plan is to go for a few years enjoy the lifestyle and save money for a deposit. Sure didn't our very own Leo Varadkar tell the young people not so long ago to go abroad or get money from their parents to save for a deposit - well that's what they are doing. A lot of people here in the west have parents that have US passports so they seem to be heading there as any dollar savings would be worth a lot when brought back to Ireland

    Anecdotal of course.



  • Registered Users Posts: 28,982 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    Dutch dykes won’t save us here though Neither will Greta or eBikes, it’s going to take much more fundamental changes than that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,062 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    Only that these fundamental changes needs to come from China, India and pretty much most of the Asia and Africa.



  • Registered Users Posts: 28,982 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    You’re right, though that point is generally used here as a cop out for not making hard decisions. If those countries aren’t doing enough, we need to do more, not just give up.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,472 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Nope.

    Its not a stupid argument.

    You hear people complaining all the time about how bad a place ireland is to live. In fact I think there was a letter wrote into the Irish times by a reader calling Ireland a failed state!

    Absolutely ludicrous- it’s one of the best countries in the world to live in.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,472 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    How is Australia going to work out when you factor in climate change?

    Floodings getting worse their every year, fires are getting worse also.

    Cost of living is very expensive in Australia.

    Answer this:

    What continent would you prefer to live on out of the seven?



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    It most certainly is not one of the countries to live in. We have a broken health system, a housing crisis and public transport is laughable. A bus from Dublin City to the Airport takes how long? Our connectivity is shocking compared other countries.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,472 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Fine.

    What country would you prefer to live in?

    Or to make it easier answer the question I posted above. What continent would you prefer to live on?



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    New Zealand and Australia seem to have a great standard of living. Good work life balance, I have never been but anyone that has always says the standard of living in far superior over there. London also even though its a mess at the moment, the transport system is extremely good. I'm not saying Ireland is a bad place to live but we are a long way behind in a number of key areas, infrastructure being the main one. Housing estates are going up now with little or no infrastructure / public transport in place etc.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    We shouldn't be found wanting and can do more, as is we are among the few doing the most.


    Europe and North America are the leaders in cutting carbon and that is only accelerating.


    The carbon behemoth of Asia is where the crisis is, 5 years ago they passed North America in cumulative carbon output, in the early 30s they will pass Europe added on top, every thing since 1750 for the West and Asia will equal it by 2030s, from next to nothing and they are only picking up speed now.


    The story of carbon output from 1750 to 2100 globally is going to be a story dominated by Asia.


    That's purely down to the scale they operate and the scarcity of environmental concern.

    They are going to dwarf the West's impact.


    The West can do more but the only battlefield that counts now in climate change is Asia.



  • Registered Users Posts: 753 ✭✭✭dontmindme


    Is there not a climate thread where you can put this stuff?



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,062 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    Give up? We already did more than enough.

    Are you serious anyway? Like we should do more than China or India?

    What you call cop out is turning out to be self preservation. Mainly in light of what is going on last few months.

    And please, do not start with crap like leading by example or some similar nonsense. If you feel like go ahead and lead by example do not think that your example (which nobody from China or India care about) will be achieved by forcing the rest of us in compliance of some crazy green deal.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,472 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Ireland has its problems for sure, but moving to New Zealand where they get regular destructive earthquakes and Australia where the cost of living is high and climate change is screwing the place over, isn’t a viable alternative imo.

    The less said about moving to the UK the better.



  • Registered Users Posts: 28,982 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    And by “more than enough”, you mean we did SFA , 2nd worst in Europe, missing current legally binding targets by a long way, and not within an asses roar of what we should be.

    Im not sure that you really get self preservation.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,625 ✭✭✭brickster69


    LNG tankers unable to offload gas due to lack of slots available. It was always going to be the case when it takes four days to offload one ship and not enough terminals.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    In the table of who is best on climate change, even trying and failing marks one as the top tier.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    That Galway ring road has been on the table for the last 15 years. Excuse after excuse, with climate change the latest one.



  • Registered Users Posts: 28,982 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko




  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Russia has a small economy, it isn't really that important, though admittedly it sells some very important things.


    LNG is much more expensive than piped gas, about 40% dearer in Europe,we'll just outbid poorer countries for it.


    That's tough for them, Bangladesh with it's 80% grid failure afew weeks ago as its LNG was shipped to Europe.


    Europe should buy every bit it can. Inflation is the killer here.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Russia will pivot East and to its south, that's already happening. Same as places like Saudi Arabia are pivoting to more outside Europe and North America.


    This was all happening long before the invasion. Much of the world is pushing to a future outside of the West and its obsessions with democracy, human rights, rule of law, global order. They'll still largely be shi7 holes in 10 years time but

    They are pulling the rest of us down to meet them, which was always going to happen with globalization, that's economics.


    Russian LNG has still been ending up in Europe or replacing European bought volume. Bangladesh was outbid, shallow pockets.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,374 ✭✭✭SortingYouOut


    You're very selective in what you take from other people's comments. They never said Russia pivoted East, they said they will and that it is already happening. It being in the process of happening means it hasn't quite happened, so why you think Bangladesh not having cheaper gas is a gotcha moment in your argument, I don't know.

    Russian energy exports to Asia have increased this year, while decreasing to Europe, even Chinese imports of LNG from Russia have doubled since January. That sounds like pivoting to me.

    Beverly Hills, California



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    If Bangladesh disappeared under the sea tonight it wouldn't cause any lost sleep in Moscow or much of the world, to be blunt.


    Russia have been pivoting to Asia for over a decade now, they have accelerated that with the war.


    Will it make them wealthier than they have been over the last 20 years, can't see how. That's not going to stop it continuing though, their blowing up of Nordstream was a clear sign of intent to close the door with the West. In Russia the strategy is called the Turn to East. It's a doctrinal policy that became more urgent in 2014 after Crimea, the loyal hound Angela wasn't always going to be there, it also was based on economic reality, most of Western Europe has had really poor growth since 2007.


    It's now their main focus


    OPEC gave them some real solidarity recently at the last meeting and that was an effort led by MBS as a calculated insult to America and Europe, it's going to have a large impact on inflation.


    Gas to Europe was only a fraction of the oil Money to Russia. Oil is the be all of their economy. That's taken significant shifts East this year and plans in place for more long term.


    It could take them 20 years, it may not work out but the economic future of the world is Asian, they have opened up new trade with emerging markets, are at risk of being an economic offshoot of India and especially China but he doesn't mind. He is not alone in that, economic relations between regional economies in Asia are rapidly developing and often to the exclusion of the West.

    He is willing to damage Russia as long as he can damage Europe as well.



    Tldr: Who isn't pivoting to the East? It's where economic growth will be concentrated for the next 30 years at least. If Russia was exceptionally close politically to Western Europe, it would still be pivoting hard to the East.


    Do you not think that direct Russia EU trade is largely finished?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,374 ✭✭✭SortingYouOut


    You don't know what you're talking about, have you even bothered looking into this? Russian LNG exports are higher than ever, oil and coal to Asia the same. The natural pipeline gas export is down but that will soon change with the Siberian line in the works. As I and the other poster said, not pivoted, pivoting. Stop cherry picking or misrepresenting others, you're at it the whole time for the sake of painting the picture you want.

    Beverly Hills, California



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,919 ✭✭✭enricoh


    Not great numbers out of intel. They are doing some spending here!

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547093-intel-brace-for-impact



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,625 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Another 40 billion bailout for Uniper. Going through some cash those lads for some reason.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,625 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Correct too much gas, the problem is getting the gas off the boat and into storage or a pipeline. Some ships have been waiting over a month to unload and at 450K / day

    Meanwhile


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Given the last time the thread went off on a tangent, someone called out the lack of data in posts.


    So as it's getting back on track again with lots of bad news I googled that old reliable for misery in this thread.


    The German economy.


    Producer price index there rose by 2.3% month on month and 45.8% year on year to September.

    Following on from largely similar results the previous month.

    Savage pressure on the ECB from that



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,625 ✭✭✭brickster69


    At least they are free now though. It's a bit like divorcing your wife and celebrating losing most of your wealth.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,018 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    That just tells the story that inflation is not going to go away anytime soon, unless and absolute catastrophe of a global fiancial crisis 2.0 hits us and kills demand.



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