Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Brexit is an interesting 'experiment' into what happens when you hand the keys of a country over to a right wing / far right populist government backed by a cheerleading right wing press who refuse to hold them accountable (answer : a total financial, economic and societal car crash).

There are no meaningful pro-EU voices in the UK, and there haven't been for a very long time. Cameron was pro-EU in private, but would not go against the Brexit wing of his party in public. Corbyn had no problem with the UK leaving the EU. Labour as a party were anti-Brexit at the time of the referendum, but that is not the same as pro-EU. Starmer and the current Labour party are not pro-EU, and the Tories have obviously gone completely off the deep end.

We're rehashing the past but would have to say Cameron was definitely not "pro EU" at all, even in private.

He just thought leaving it unilaterally ("Brexit") was not good for the UK, and would harm his country badly. He was a staunch Europhobe. It was impossible to become leader of the Conservative party (IMO) without being a proven hard Eurosceptic, well before Cameron took over.

All done to death on here but it was a disaster having such a man leading the argument for the defence (staying in the EU) during the referendum and the "Yes" side was quite hobbled before they began with him and Corbyn as main politicians tasked with selling it.

Indeed it is.

I'm not convinced. The Tory lead in the polls took a steep decline in April/May 2020, during which time the UK overtook Italy to become the worst-affected country in Europe. Had they continued with Johnson's initial denialism, that experience would undoubtedly have been even worse, and presumably that would have been reflected in a worse poll performance.

By June 2020 the Tory lead over Labour had fallen from around 20% to just 4% - but it was still a lead. While there were ups and downs after that, the Tories remained ahead at all times and the overall trend was more or less level. 12 months later, in June 2021, the Tory lead was about 10%, although this was more due to a bleeding of support from Labour to other parties than a rise in support for the Tories.

Since June 2021 the Tory trend has been steadily downwards, and this coincides with the period when the government was removing Covid-related restrictions. By December 2021 Labour had overtaken the Tories, and after that the Tory slide continued. By July 2022, when Johnson resigned, the Tories were about 10/12% behind Labour (depending on which polls you like). Now, of course, it's more like 30%.

You can argue about what factors account for the change in Tory fortunes, but the timing makes it implausible that it was a widespread feeling that the pandemic restrictions were unwarranted; the period when those restrictions were in operation is actually the only period where Tory popularity was not trending downwards. I'd argue myself that the decline in Tory support is mainly a reflection of the growing public awareness of Johnson's manifest unfitness for office, followed by an even more damning public judgment on Truss. But of course Johnson's unfitness was manifested both in his handling of the pandemic and in his handling of Brexit, so it is hard to disentangle these factors.

Wait... isn't it just one where they all speak English? A wealthy one? Right-wing extremists running everything, an elite unelected cabal in positions of power, and less and less influence in international affairs? Their only important international export being (soon-to-be) unregulated financial services?

The current Labour leadership are pro EU they just can't say it out loud anymore.

The best they can promise is a friendly closely aligned relationship.

It's not that they can't, they've chosen not to. Since long before the referendum, the UK (in the public arena) has had two viewpoints on the EU: Pro-Brexit and "not pro-Brexit". That wasn't good enough to prevent Brexit, and it won't be good enough to prevent the damage of Brexit compounding upon itself

But fix what? If they can't even bring themselves to say that Brexit, at is currently being pursued by the Tories, is a terrible idea, then what mandate will they have to make any changes?

Free movement? No, off the table so any trade deal is limited? What is the solution to NI? Labour hasn't offered any.

I get that they want to keep their cards until the election, but do they really think an election campaign is a right time to suddenly start talking about all this? No, they will keep schtum. They are scared at upsetting anyone

I'd point out that I don't even disagree with the approach, I would probably do the same. Why get involved in messy debates when it makes more sense just to stick to lines like 'The woman is not for turning...up!".

But it creates a problem as when they do get into power are they going to be able to stand up to the Brexiteers who will claim they never voted for any changes?

Honestly I think by then the moderate Brexit voter will just be happy to see it it never mentioned again.

And the hardcore ones are lost anyway. Can't keep slowing down for the dumb kids in the class.

So, rather than try to bring people round to a new way of thinking, Labour plan to simply say nothing, and then once they get in just do whatever they want? Of course they can do that, but it isn't right and isn't democratic.

You can continue to claim Breixt is done, but that implies that nothing will change. But we know it will, it has to. NIP, for a start. If Labour want to change the current agreement with the EU then what are they willing to give in return?

Its is simply cowardice that stops them from putting there actual solutions forward. Far easier to simply pretend everything will be done, tweaking I think you said, without having to actually outline what that means. That is what got the UK into the mess it finds itself and now the UK needs a strong committed leader to actually stand up for what they believe not just pretend that a loss of 4% GDP is nothing to worry about.

This motion is actually a brilliant strategy by Labour and really leaves Tory MPs with two sh1t choices. The Tories have whipped against the motion which plays right into Labour's hands. They are only breeding further resentment against Truss. It's kind of insane the Tories have chosen this hill to die on but there you go.