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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,482 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    They are reacting, badly, to public pressure on rental costs. There is no doubt the RPZ has made matters worse for many renters and the legislation has had the unintended consequence of causing LLs to leave the sector.

    But to say they are intentionally keeping prices/rents high for personal gain is beyond stupid and belongs in the CT section of Boards.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17 ghostofchrimbo


    If a group of adults working together produce the same consistent result year in and year out for 10 years, that is what they intended to do.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,482 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    You don’t think their constituents, interest groups, the media, charities, pressure from the opposition etc influenced rental legislation? How anyone could construe that legislation as Landlord friendly is beyond comprehension. Please don’t tell me you also believe that policies that helped us climb off the floor by attracting foreign investment were designed to keep TDs properties valuable. C’mon don’t join the chicken lickin club.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17 ghostofchrimbo


    I'm saying what I'm saying.

    When a group of adults work together and produce a result so consistent that you could set your watch to it, over a very long period of time, I'm saying that purpose and intention are paramount. High efficiency.

    Whoever said what, did what, when, why or how, the result is the result. It speaks for itself.

    A housing crisis has been in existence for a very, very long time, getting worse each year. It has been presided over by the same people for all of that time.

    What else can be said?



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,482 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    What else can be said? They responded to immense public pressure to introduce legislation on rents, had they done nothing, they would have been hammered for not providing some protections for renters. If they don’t provide supports for people who can’t afford rents, the homeless numbers would have grown exponentially.

    What part of the legislation helps Landlords/TDs who own rental properties?

    Do you think any Government can magically build hundreds of thousands of houses? Of course not.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 17 ghostofchrimbo


    The result is the result. Any year worse than the last. It speaks to intent, it speaks to efficiency, it speaks to focus.

    For all the squawking and events and legislation and bills and laws that have happened, these boys always end up at the same result.

    Conspicuous doesn't begin to describe it.


    Going back to my extremely apt antarctic analogy, everyone keeps banging on about how to build enough housing, yet there's barely a whisper as to the why.

    Condensed into that "why" is a multitude of conspiracy of which I have no doubt will end in tribunals that will rock this country. But, all in due time.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,482 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    Go on, tell us what wrong doing the Tribunals will investigate, surely it isn’t why private developers won’t build enough houses.

    The floor is yours, tell us what wrong-doing you suspect the TDs are involved in.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    I think they are acting through the prism of being wealthy homeowners.

    We recently went to a dinner with a neighbour and although my partner sees people regularly as clients that are in very difficult positions, she was shook when it was a neighbor with whom we are friends.

    TD's, (a bit like you David imho), do not really socialize with those that are struggling with accommodation and finances. It's those other people that are poor.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17 ghostofchrimbo


    If you're willing to handwave a group of people who have consistently produced the same results year after year as simple incompetents, results right before eyes, facts, evidence, consequence, then there isn't a snowballs chance you're able to entertain the theoretical.

    Not many want to entertain the inevitable, it is very painful. But we're heading there nonetheless.

    Absolutely insane ideas have brought us to this point. A recent humdinger, just a sliver of the bigger picture, is the no cap on ukrainian refugees, going into winter, with energy prices off the hook, a pre-existing housing crisis forcing people into tents and looming global economic recession to mention a few notes. An 8 year old child would have the sense to not do that.

    So why would they do that? Again the choice raises itself, is it lacking the competence of an 8 year old child, or is there method and intent within a group of grown adults?

    I can spell out my theories, with plenty of statistical evidence. But I won't.

    All I need do is point out the questions, and there are so very many going begging.


    Lastly, and firstly, the idea that this housing crisis is an accident and needs to be handled at face value is off with fairies.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,482 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    I think they are acting through the prism of not being able to magically solve a problem by building the homes necessary, and public pressure to do something which gives protection to renters and help those who can afford rent via supplemental payments.

    I socialise with friends, most of whom have been so for a very long time. I don’t distinguish between those who are and aren’t struggling when I go for a pint.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,482 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    So you think there will be a Tribunal to investigate why we helped people from a war torn country?

    Give me one policy decision that you think will result in a Tribunal.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17 ghostofchrimbo


    No.

    And it won't be policy that is investigated.

    Don't worry about any of it, you're obviously as content as a pig in muck to take this housing crisis at face value as a gosh golly mistake.

    Everything is an accident, no accountability, no responsibility, no vision, no ideas, just a bunch of people falling over their own shoelaces into piles and piles of money every year.

    When the hole falls out of these trousers, probably next year, then and only then will people start asking what happened.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,676 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Your "Antarctic analogy" breaches the warning in the opening post and a repeat warning on-thread this morning.

    Drop it.

    Don't try to discuss it, don't try to hint at it, don't try anything.

    And particularly - do not reply to this moderation instruction.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,751 ✭✭✭jj880


    Why would they want to solve a problem that increases the value of their assets, the rental yield from those assets and makes fortunes for those who lobby them and fund their parties?

    The idea that the poor TDs are having a hard time trying to solve the housing crisis is different universe stuff. They are tryin to cod everyone while making the situation worse because it suits them to do so. O'Brien is like Walter Mitty every time he opens his mouth. Hes a fantasist of the highest order but he doesn't care. Hes getting away with it with minimal panto shouting and stumping about from opposition TDs. Watching this country implode is really a spectator sport at present. The only unknown is how long the deckchairs can keep being rearranged with more irresponsible policy thats basically theft at this stage.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,482 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    Everything isn’t an accident. We have risen from a ruptured economy 10 yrs ago to full employment, increased population and a huge number of high paying jobs. Given that construction had a standing start and has been unable to keep pace, it is a surprise to no one that there is a shortage and high prices.

    Am I content as a pig in muck? No, but I understand that a Government, any Government and that includes SF, cannot magically provide hundreds of thousands of homes. Nor can they stop those well paid people or people with savings from outbidding those less well paid.

    You have stated that Tribunals will be held which will rock society, yet you can provide one example of a policy decision which is based on TDs looking after their own interests or wrong doing.

    Its just more nonsense.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17 ghostofchrimbo


    That's great, so not everything is an accident, only the bad things are an accident.

    You do realise how easily I could counter each of your vague good points with precise statistics, don't you? I don't need to do that. What I will say is that on a scale of international metrics, we are failing in more than we are succeeding. If you're interested you'll find out yourself, if you aren't, you won't.


    You have repeatedly used the phrase "can't magic up hundreds of thousands of houses". Do you have the foggiest idea in mind as to when this loveable Government of goofs are going to achieve the dream? Are they going to match demand to stabilise home prices in 15 years, and then reduce them to affordable levels over another 15 years? What year have you in mind here? 2078? There's reasoning behind your messages, isn't there?

    As for Tribunals, don't worry about it. You have a difficult enough time seeing things as they are, never mind why they are. You'll know them when you see them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,482 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    A lot of those TDs will not be elected when the next Government is formed, specifically because of the housing crisis. You think they are helping developers, in the knowledge that it will cost them their job? That is absurd.

    Give me an example of a policy that has helped the TDs. Do you think the rental legislation benefitted LLs? The exodus of LLs from the sector suggests otherwise. Have a plethora of TDs put their own homes on the market recently? Which ones?

    Is Darragh O’Brien a LL? The only reference I could find was an investment in 2008 in a housing fund which he exited from at a 50% loss.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,482 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    You can’t give me one policy decision that you think will result in a Tribunal of enquiry, can you?

    I don’t think you comprehend the part played by the private sector in providing housing, and how no matter what part the Government plays, the decision to build will be dependent on costs and profits.

    If you are waiting for the State to build hundreds of thousands of homes, 2078 would be optimistic.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17 ghostofchrimbo


    Don't worry about the Tribunals I envisage. That's the third time I've said as much. My mistake for mentioning it.

    The private and public relationship in house building is one giant blur of grey. Means nothing.

    As to you saying that hundreds of thousands of homes would be optimistic by 2078...then are you saying that you believe this housing crisis is basked in for another few decades?

    I'm clear in what I'm saying, that the housing crisis is one hell of a suspicious series of events.

    I don't know what you're getting at whatsoever. What is your point?



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,676 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    ghostofchrimbo threadbanned.

    There is zero tolerance of this from now on.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,482 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    I don’t know how long there will be a housing crisis because I don’t know if the private sector will build enough to meet demand, or whether demand will stay at present levels, if you do, you have information which no one else seems to have.

    My point is, if you believe there is Government corruption in relation to the housing crisis, either lay it out, or you may be better served posting in the CT thread.



  • Registered Users Posts: 752 ✭✭✭dontmindme



    There is no doubt the RPZ has made matters worse for many renters...

    How so?



  • Registered Users Posts: 491 ✭✭SwimClub


    Landlords leaving the market, their mortgage interest, costs etc. are going up but they can't put up the rent so they say sod it and sell up.

    I saw one post that their mortgage interest could be up 2.5k after the next interest rate rise.

    Some got locked in below market value for rent in RPZ as they had kept their rents down over the years, which was the old approach with good tenants, increase on change overs, but selling up might now be more appealing.

    Less supply pushes up rents, existing rents are capped but the new build stuff coming online isn't, and you have some big funds allegedly leaving apartments empty for periods to increase rents or lock in the max in the market.

    If you're renting at 50% of market value, long term it makes sense to just leave the place empty for 2 years after a tenant leaves and put it back on at market value - not good for supply.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,482 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    Landlords have terminated leases and left the market due to the legislation, reducing property numbers and putting upward pressure on rents. Small investors will not enter the market as a result of Rental legislation. Since RPZs were introduced, LLs are more likely, and would be negligent not to, raise rents like clockwork when permitted. Prior to the legislation there was a huge increase in rents in anticipation of caps, and lastly, the owners of any new properties coming to the rental market are cognisant that it must be rented at the highest possible rate unless they want to be trapped indefinitely at a lower rate.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    Ahh come on now. Is anyone seriously asking that question at this point :)



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,751 ✭✭✭jj880


    You can try and narrow the discussion to pointing out a single policy that has benefited them all you want. There are things they could have done to stop the the housing market overheating again and you know it. Everyone knows it at this stage. Ban REITs, have councils build housing instead of buying and pushing prices up further etc. Policy that would actually help the people of this country buy a house at a reasonable price (or get a house at all). Sorry I forgot. The poor TDs are just innocents with all our best interests at heart. Jaysus.

    Instead they are choosing to do further damage and pretend they aren't. This morning we have O'Brien saying he is "boosting the buying power of renters" in the media. He's so blatant now its laughable. All he is doing is boosting profit for developers and loading people up with more debt. That will end well with further rate rises and cost of living hikes on the cards. They know what they are doing and they don't care.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,482 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    I’m not narrowing the discussion, I will accept any example or proof that the Government is purposely keeping prices/rent high for their own personal benefit.

    Again, it is absolutely absurd to think the State can suddenly build the homes necessary to alleviate the housing crisis. Only the private sector can do that (they built 80k units per year prior to 2008, it’s now around 20k) , and watching Rory Hearne and Karl Dieter being interviewed this morning, they both said private developers are winding DOWN construction because it is just too expensive to build at the moment. So saying the State should build the houses needed illustrates a failure to understand just what it takes to do that.

    And, the people housed in the properties the State has bought, I have no doubt feel they have been helped immensely by the State.



  • Registered Users Posts: 491 ✭✭SwimClub


    We have inflation of 10% and rent increases are capped at 2%, at the same time we need massive investment to build homes and provide supply.

    Real estate investment yields should go up with inflation, otherwise the return in real terms drops at a time when interest rates in government bonds etc. are increasing. That's not good for supply, it makes investment unappealing.

    Politicians introduce stuff like this in response to populist pressure to make short term decisions, even though they know the big picture and that it isn't in long term national interest. If we want affordable prices, we need to solve the supply issues. They've introduced what you might be able to justify as a short term measure, but failure to address supply has made it a long term measure and it's one that is killing supply. Genius.

    Slightly off topic but related to how bad politicians operate, look at below interview from UK yesterday, from about 1:07

    'I've had enough of talentless people putting the tick in the right box, not because it's in the national interest but because it's in their interest' he says.

    Before revealing his own interest - short term political survival

    'There's nothing as Ex as an Ex MP'

    We have the same here, politicians are well aware of the big picture and long term needs but make short term populist decisions to save their own jobs come election time.





  • Registered Users Posts: 4,603 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Phones hopping all day at the estate agents apparently.

    We have in one move written off 7 years of prudence. Thinking about it, it would have been better to start these rules at 4 times income and reduced them to 3.5 as the market overheated.

    They say you can't time the market, but this state does seem to be very adept at making the wrong move at the worst possible time.

    Does anyone know if you can flag this concern to the ECB as it is completely against worldwide central bank policy in tackling inflation and I assumed the Irish central bank was answerable to the ecb

    Listened to McWilliam’s Tuesday podcast and he seems convinced that the world economy is heading into an 08 moment as the system will not be able to cope with the scale and velocity of the rate rises and one domino will collapse the whole thing. Jeff bezo's the latest to tweet "time to beaten down the hatches"

    As for @Dav010 if it swims in the water waddles and quacks, it's a cow



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,603 ✭✭✭Villa05


    One suspects that MP's don't get significant payoffs when they loose their seats like our shower from listening to that clip



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