Softening house market?

There is no inconsistency. I posted two things:

First, that if a person took out a loan that was 4X their salary, then if interest rates went to 5%, interest would accrue at a rate equal to 20% of their gross take home (at least initially). That is simple mathematics.

Second. I posted that it is not that long you could get a 30Y fixed rate mortgage in the US for almost as low as 2.5%. Today it is 7%. You yourself included a link which confirms that.

I didn't post anything about Cairns or about the stock price of Meta or the price of Bitcoin. I didn't try to say that people in Ireland can only get mortgages in the US or anything else you are imagining. I posted the two facts above. If you want to run off and pretend that I said something else just so you can have a rant with some waffle that is irrelevant to my post, then there isn't a whole lot I can do about that. There is no need for the attitude

Donald you are getting uptight. Take a chill pill.

You are joining the Chicken Licken brigade. You have a tendancy to now quote one piece of data and only want that piece of data dealt with. That is binary thinking. It's lacks overview.

There is posters on here making comparisons with what is happening in the US and UK now. In the UK we have a party in government who could be described as Sinn Fein( ourselves alone) but from a different political ideology.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CjFT4ByJl9o/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

Truss has managed in a few weeks ( even though distracted by the death of the Queen and her funeral) to collapse the UK . Because of this the UK bond and pension market is in turmoil

You posted about the US mortgage Interest rate. Will this happen right accross the EU. Will it happen Ireland. Will what is happening in the UK ( which is mostly the Brexit dividend they did not expect to becoming home to roost).

Quite simply there is no indication that what you are indicating will happen. As I said in the USA most money is held in investments not on deposits and definitely not on short term deposits. The FED interest rate hike is exposing this.

While the EU languished in negative interest rates the US has never gone there. For the last eleven years the EU has been dropping interest rates we have spend longer in negative interest rates than it takes the Tory party to elect four prime ministers. Pre COVID the US rate was rising and was at 2.5% and then dropped to a quarter of a percent. It has literally jumped from there to it's pre COVID figure and has continued climbing.

Remember the US is not suffering as much from fuel inflation as the EU. They have ingenious supply. Therefore the US is trying to suppress general inflation. The EU is trying to suppress energy induced inflation.

You do not want to take context into account. Everything is 1+1=2 at present with you. Binary Donald binary, waffle in other words.

In another post "FF is the party of homeownership" - Housing for all is a shambles so they're clinging to the CBI rules as a win.

In theory yes but in practice I don't think so I think that's a very grey area indeed. Central bankers around the world do not make independent decisions, look at the fed for example, when Donald Trump put immense political pressure on them back in 2019 to stop lifting rates coupled with a repo market blow out and they reversed course and starting lowering again.

Central banks main objective is price stability and controlling inflation, That New Zealand arsehole said yesterday that this would cause a "modest" increase in house prices. Well I thought their whole job was price stability and lowering inflation not throwing petrol on it. This shows that if the acted independently and actually done their job then this would have been the last thing they would have done.

And you think that matters, all that matters is how it impacts Germany and France if it is good for those 2 economies everyone else will have to suck it up

Based on? I want this to be true but all the experts I’m hearing discussing these new rules are saying it will increase the cost of houses however small it may be .

first time buyers have more funds so you’d expect prices to increase a bit

It is mostly relative - but your gap may have grown.

If your current property is 300k and your target property is 500k. Gap = 200k.

House prices rise 10%.

Current property now 330k, target property is 550k. Gap = 220k.

I do not think I am the only one.

I am not trying to rile people but there is a lot of flapping about by certain posters

I have no interest in prices going up or down. I do not really care. However I am a realist. Contrary to opinion I could not see house prices fall and if they fell substantially builders would stop building.

The only solution to house prices is supply. Whether that is in the form of new builds or refurbishment of older semi derelict properties

Many on here think that site prices only are the cause of Dublin house prices. It's not labour is a huge issue. 50-70% of that labour travels in and out of Dublin every day. It's similar in other cities. However in Dublin they travel longer and further. Some even stay up there for the week. I expect that the average construction worker in Dublin is costing 500+/week more than other cities in Ireland. They in turn are 2-500/week more expensive than smaller urban area's. Not all this is in physical labour costs. Traveling and time traveling is a huge costs. In a tradesman van ( many now use larger vans because of the amount of supplies they carry) it's costing 200/ week in diesel along to do a 100 km return journey and many are traveling more than that. Add to that the cost of 3-4 hours traveling time per day.

Then you have the physical cists of doing working Dublin. Every nail, bag of cement, lenghts of pipe meter of concrete will be 10-15% more expensive.

There has already been economist's on this morning on the radio acknowledging that construction was slowing down prior to the CB announcement.

There is people flapping about LA buying houses and REITs building apartments. The reality is in the case of apartments there is no other finance method available it seems.

I think there is a cohort of movers on here with substantial savings who are look for a price collapse so they can move easier or can build easier. They care little about the effect it will have longterm.

I have two children in there twenty after getting planning premission. Neither of the houses are mansions they both are sub 2k sqfeet. Do I wish building prices were cheaper. Ya I do but wishing and acknowledging reality are two different things.

There is people renting 1&2 bed apartments that need to get on with life. A mortgage would be cheaper than renting in a lot of cases. If it helps them well and good. Most government policy is to give these people who want to buy an edge over movers and to encourage builders to build houses for them.

HTB, shared equity, 4 times salary gives them an edge over movers. It probably limits the building of larger homers like my children intend. But life is about reality not about what I think is good only for me.

As David McWilliams often quotes

'' we should not let the perfect get in the way of the good''

The CBI themselves have admitted it will result in "modest" increases which they haven't actually defined in public announcements. Likely buried somewhere in a paper.

You know that the people who benefit from recession are the wealthy and the less well off struggle... When the recession ends, the wealthy continue to benefit, but those lower earners struggle to catch up as they are on the back foot... Which is exactly the position we're in now...

The wealthy have savings and resources... This economic crash is different from the last one... The wealthy (for the most part) won't need to be bailed out... They own or run the businesses you need to survive... Don't get bogged down with hate... They will be okay in a recession, you probably won't... And it's very unlikely you will benefit in any way...

Ya no difference

Last time we had

70k excess houses by developers unsold

Massive amount of capital invested in property abroad

Massive amount of investment properties owned by taxi drives, trades people, auctioneers and other investors.

Average return on rental property was 2%

Huge amount of personal debt on credit cards, car loans, home improvements,

Banks were financing ordinary Joe Soaps to develop multi unit sites such as farmers or other site owners.

Banks were funding complete projects by developers and builders where no units were going to be sold until whole site was finished

You getting a letters through the door every 2-3 weeks with approval to borrow up to 60k

You could get mortgages to 6X income and 110%funding of house price

Yes all these indicators are present again. Every single one of them.......well maybe a few are missing..... Like f@@king all of them